Arkle - 2021

[EnvoyAllen]

Without wishing to sound like an old record, or ‘after the event’ (I posted the evening before Shishkin ran my thoughts) if there’s plenty of people who are a) still considering, but find the prices far too prohibitive this far out.... or b) have already backed them at various times throughout the year at various (shortening) prices, then perhaps there’s still a way into the market for those of us interested, but I feel sadly the horse has already bolted on the prices. Pun genuinely intended.

As of 1.24pm on Monday you could get the following -

Shishkin to win the Arkle by 2 lengths 5/1
Shishkin to win the Arkle by 5 lengths 10/1

Shishkin & Envoi Allen to both win by a length each 14/1


24 hours later, we now have.......

Shishkin to win the Arkle by 2 lengths 3/1
Shishkin to win the Arkle by 6 lengths (yep, your 5l winning margin disappeared) 15/2

Shishkin & Envoi Allen to both win by a length 11/1


Now, i really, genuinely don’t wish to sound condescending nor smug (because I truly believe each and every individual has their own personal opinion here, and for every race indeed) but surely if you were wanting to make your potentially your final wagers on Shishkin, pre 1.25pm yesterday afternoon was the time to do it?

I’ve read lots (on many forms of media) that ‘ I/we want to see him/her jump a fence first’ but surely we had to believe Shishkin would take gamely to a fence, regardless of what we know now 24 hours later. Henderson (and i don’t believe he’s a trainer for hyperbole, and never has been, he’s pretty understated) has been raving him up for the last few months, de Boinville has been intimating similar, so to wait until a 1/6 shot comes in and then see all the above value ways into the Shishkin market disappear is, and it’s of course just my view, negligent of those who now feel the prices are too prohibitive.

Those ‘Arkle winning lengths’ prices on Shishkin pre his race yesterday were a very sound way into the market - for those who want to keep him onside, and wanted to continue backing him.

It’s the same with Envoi Allen - why would you wait fora 1/16 shot to win at a canter and see all his odds for the Marsh cut by 25% - 33% (3’s into 2’s......11/4 into 9/4 etc) when it’s pre that race you really do need to get onside. All the written evidence, hearsay in the paddocks have suggested all Summer both these 2 horses could be monsters over fences, so why wait until they’ve had their (as is nearly always the case) easy margin winning debuts and watch as their odds in various markets get slashed.

I absolutely appreciate genuinely there are a million ways to bet, and a million ways to tackle all the markets, and mine is only 1 of those million, but Shishkin appealed hugely still yesterday until the off.......as soon as he won by a monster margin, all value quite rightly disappeared.

I’ll leave the last thought of the day -

Shishkin to win the Arkle by 5l (again, look at winning margins of the Arkle in the last 8 seasons) & Envoi Allen to win the Marsh by 3l - 28/1.

Maybe, just maybe, that’s worth someone’s pound coin or two.

[Kevloaf]

I think you've kind of answered your own questions EnvoyAllen
You clearly understand why people wouldn't want to use that method.


I personally, do take educated guesses and back horses before seeing them, however I fall short of knocking people that don't, because it's such a monumentally important factor in whether a horse can win a race. Before seeing it, you are guessing, and whilst the argument about where 'value' lies could rage on forever, it just doesn't sit right to knock someone for NOT backing something until they've seen it.

The facts are that on here, the majority of us are closer to your method than the suck-it-and-see approach, but I think this forum isn't reflective of the majority view. Perhaps that's a good thing, but I just don't like the knocking of the approach as such. IF it was possible, I'd prefer to do that...if prices stood for a guaranteed 5 minutes after every race, and you literally had 5 minutes to decide, that'd be the best thing ever. I 100% would NEVER back a horse before it jumped an obstacle if I knew I could take the price for 5 minutes afterwards... so it can't be black and white that one method is better than the other?




On the bets you highlighted (and good on you for doing so, love different angles) I personally just ignored them, and I just don't think the difference in price at this stage was worth it - but that's because I'd already got him in the book for an amount I was happy with. Now after the debut, don't get me wrong, I wish I'd had more on....but there has to be an element of saying "yes, I've got what I want on" because for every time I have an example where I wish I'd had more on, there will be plenty I'm delighted I stuck to a staking plan.


The 28/1 special you've just put up is more appealing now, purely because of the price. As things go north of 20/1, they get more appealing for obvious reasons...but I wouldn't claim to have an edge at all in knowing the value of distance bets. For all we know, Klassical Dream will be a monster too, and Envoi Allen does look like he 'only does enough'.... he didn't exactly give Blue Sari and Easywork absolute wallopings, so with those doubts I can just pass the bet over without really worrying about it... but again, kudos for highlighting it, I have zero doubt people will like that bet and have taken it in the time it's taken me to right this reply!

[opatcho]

Shishkin to win the Arkle by 5l (again, look at winning margins of the Arkle in the last 8 seasons) & Envoi Allen to win the Marsh by 3l - 28/1.

Its hard enough to back a winner at the Fez
Its even harder to back a winner Antepost
... never mind throwing the lengths they are going to win by

28/1 looks nice, but there are too many if and buts there for me

[EnvoyAllen]

Its hard enough to back a winner at the Fez
Its even harder to back a winner Antepost
... never mind throwing the lengths they are going to win by

28/1 looks nice, but there are too many if and buts there for me

But Mr Opatcho, any horse you back at 28/1 four months out from the festival will surely, just surely, be full of “ifs, buts, maybes” and a lot more “ifs,buts and maybes” then you’d ideally like, but I’d like to ascertain my point.

Currently the best price you can get on the Shishkin/Envoi Allen double is 13/2.

Personally, if their form continues like they’ve shown and they both turn up fit, the double will likely be 2/1 tops.

But looking at the trends of the Arkle (winning margins) coupled with the ability of both horses, an alternative bet ‘might’ be 28/1 for Shishkin to win by 5l and Envoi Allen to win the Marsh by 3 lengths is decent value, when the value’s just about gone for that double.

[charlie]

Currently the best price you can get on the Shishkin/Envoi Allen double is 13/2.

FYI Skybet RAB special 15/2

[charlie]

I've taken the 28/1 Shishkin 5L, EA 3L.

I don't have either in the book as singles, and the case of Arkle fav records (Kev) and winning distances (Envoy) was collectively strong enough for me to think 28/1 is decent

[opatcho]

But Mr Opatcho, any horse you back at 28/1 four months out from the festival will surely, just surely, be full of “ifs, buts, maybes” and a lot more “ifs,buts and maybes” then you’d ideally like, but I’d like to ascertain my point.

Currently the best price you can get on the Shishkin/Envoi Allen double is 13/2.

Personally, if their form continues like they’ve shown and they both turn up fit, the double will likely be 2/1 tops.

But looking at the trends of the Arkle (winning margins) coupled with the ability of both horses, an alternative bet ‘might’ be 28/1 for Shishkin to win by 5l and Envoi Allen to win the Marsh by 3 lengths is decent value, when the value’s just about gone for that double.

I'm in a different mindset, I am happy with my sizeable single on Shishkin at 4/1. Its with Bet365 so had cashout option IF

1) He jumps like a donkey on his first run
2) He gets beaten by another GB horse
3) There there is an obvious danger over in Ireland who runs and jumps better than him

Second race of the day, Shishkin win I've got credits. I dont need to be waiting on "if this, or if this". My bet is also detached from any dependency on Envoi Allen, or the amount of lengths he needs to win my to get any money back

Relying on Doubles, Trebles has been a killer for me over previous season. Last year I went with singles with the majority of my big wins coming from placing single just before the off and have max single Ante Post bets on my main selections

I'd be gutted if I was waiting for one horse to win by x amount of lengths only to be horse by a neck

[Kevloaf]

28/1 Shishkin 5L, Envoi Allen 3L is impossible to get excited about if you have 41/1 for them just to win.

I wondered why I was finding it so easy to dismiss, that's exactly why.


However, fair play for putting it up and arguing the case, it's different, I like it....and I hope it lands!

[EnvoyAllen]

Like yourself Kev, I’ve made no secret of the fact I have a huge, huge wedge of points on the double (not at 41/1 but 26.5/1/ starting from early April - Shishkin @ 4’s, Envoi Allen @ 9/2), but I’m still just try trying to find value in that bet, that’s all for the punters on here. Based on the potential quality of both horses, the 28/1 double might still hold some appeal. It’s possible ya know!

[charlie]

Relying on Doubles, Trebles has been a killer for me over previous season.

Me too, and I've cut down on them massively as over the last few years. Could be a topic merit's its own thread.

[charlie]

28/1 Shishkin 5L, Envoi Allen 3L is impossible to get excited about if you have 41/1 for them just to win.

The phrase 'no shit Sherlock', comes to mind

I'm in a canoe and bitter Kev, it's fine

(if you can think of an office quote to replace my first sentence then I'd love to hear it as I spent 20 mins trying to think of one but couldn't)

[Kevloaf]

The phrase 'no shit Sherlock', comes to mind

I'm in a canoe and bitter Kev, it's fine

(if you can think of an office quote to replace my first sentence then I'd love to hear it as I spent 20 mins trying to think of one but couldn't)

20 minutes?

Don't grab it if you haven't got one ready, it slows it down.

[charlie]

20 minutes?

Don't grab it if you haven't got one ready, it slows it down.

Hahahahaha absolutely superb

[Spectre]

Me too, and I've cut down on them massively as over the last few years. Could be a topic merit's its own thread.

I like trebles, but I do them as part of deconstructed trixies with the doubles backed in separate bets.

I also look for a wide coverage across a number of horses, so if one goes down the drop in price on another compensates and becomes a better bet.

Trebles are obviously far more lucrative than the combination of the associated doubles, so even if very few land the compensation makes up for the losers.

[Kevloaf]

I like trebles, but I do them as part of deconstructed trixies with the doubles backed in separate bets.

I also look for a wide coverage across a number of horses, so if one goes down the drop in price on another compensates and becomes a better bet.

Trebles are obviously far more lucrative than the combination of the associated doubles, so even if very few land the compensation makes up for the losers.

Yours are notably strategic though I'd say that isn't the 'norm', with all respect due to everyone/anyone else.


I place multiples, I do love 'related' multiples where one horse actually impacts the likelihood or prices (in a positive way) of another leg in that multiple. I also think they can be useful for coverage, I have a couple of examples of using multiples for 'gaps' that have paid off before. However, I tend to just place them, and consider them losers immediately, as relying on them for me is way too risky (which is why your book/approach is so interesting).

There is definitely a thread somewhere about it, like charlie has suggested, but not sure how easy it'll be to dig up.