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I'm with Charlie. I think the rest of you have been at the amyl nitrate.
To be clear, absolutely nothing wrong today but the price is just crazy. I'd rather back him in a double or treble at odds on (NRNB or on the day) than take less than 2/1 over 3 months out.
I have no idea what amyl nitrate is, but nice to have you onboard Archie!
I've had a lifetimes worth of fun with Shishkin (nothing sexual), its time for y'all to take a turn
He ran and jump well, very well
Not getting too excited, there are signs he could be very special but we have 4-5 months of races still to come
He was good though today
I'm fairly certain he'll go off evens or odds on in the Arkle, however.... I'd be slightly concerned (and it's a only a niggle) whether he takes to undulations/cheltenham given how he went in the supreme. Look, I've back this horse and am very excited to see how he progresses but he's going to be a very short price for a horse that 'could' be a few pounds below his best mark around cheltenham*
One thing worth nothing is its highly unlikely IMO Shishkin goes off odds on at Cheltenham, as I doubt he'll beat anything on the way to justify that short a price.
Plus, by the time March rolls around you'd hope one or two of the Irish have emerged as contenders - I'd love to see this market develop into a really competitive affair
Not sure about this Charlie....."Highly unlikely he goes off odds on" ?
Footpad, Altior, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre have all gone off odds on in the last 9 years.
6 winning odds on favs in the last 9 runnings... when we have a hot pot, they go off short? He's already 7/4 best price?
Interesting that you thing like makes it highly unlikely. Having no competition in the UK isn't going to push his price out? Next time he runs, you think he doesn't get trimmed?
Only one from Ireland can win the Irish Arkle, at best they'll have two that look really good that haven't clashed and that'd perhaps take enough out of the market which is feasible if it's a high profile one, but......I would go as far as to say it's highly unlikely Shishkin goes off odds against!
One of my favourite things last year was that about 5 seconds before the start of the Ballymore, the track commentator announced Envoi has just gone from 8/13 to 4/7.
Why you ask?
When I was trying to sell my mate into backing EA antepost for the race at 10s the summer before, i specifically him he’d go off and win at odds on - the actual quote was ‘he absolutely pisses in bro - 10s on a 4/7 shot will look beautiful on the morning’. So how we laughed up in the grandstand after the race that he went off 4/7.
What is your point MOM?
I told the exact same mate this year that Shishkin is the repeat at 9/2 for the Arkle. And I boldly predicted 8/13 for him.
So the answer to the ‘will he go off odds on question’, I can confirmthe answer is yes. He will. 8/13 SP.
For those of you out there (plenty, I could imagine....) that are backing Shishkin for the Arkle or thinking about it but reluctant to take on the best price of 11/4 currently, it’s worth mentioning with a huge emphasis that should he win at extremely prohibitive odds tomorrow at Kempton against a small field of inferior horses, he will shorten further for the Arkle. Regardless of how he wins, and by how far, and against whomever inferior, he will, without question, shorten for the Arkle.
He might shorten to a price most of those potential backers won’t fancy taking so far out. It’s possible he go’s 2/1.
So, I’m going to offer an alternative for potential ‘Shishkin @ Arkle’ backers.
William Hills currently offering Shishkin 5/1 to win the Arkle by 2 lengths - yes, double the odds for the sake (and tiny risk) of a small winning margin.
And yet, the winners of the Arkle in the last decade - Sprinter Sacre (6 lengths), Simonsig (3), Un De Sceaux (6), Douvan (6), Altior (5), Footpad (12), Duc Des Genevries (12) would evidently suggest the winning margins much greater than the ‘by 2 lengths or more’ William Hill are currently offering Shishkin for the Arkle.
It’s generally won by a horse being ridden out at the line and hitting the post with plenty in hand. Those winning margins of the horses mentioned above are indicative of a trend not to be frowned upon for those who don’t feel the current 5/2 general price & 11/4 best price Shishkin is currently being offered at isn’t the value they’re looking for.
If Shishkin in 4 months ends up being of the standard of those aforementioned, then 5/1 to win the Arkle by 2l or more is surely a very good value into the market.
Copy and pasted from 24 hrs ago. I just hope amongst those arguing over ‘price value’ on Shishkin that there was indeed value up until 1.24pm today. You just got to find it and be a tiny bit brave.
Not sure about this Charlie....."Highly unlikely he goes off odds on" ?
Footpad, Altior, Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre have all gone off odds on in the last 9 years.
6 winning odds on favs in the last 9 runnings... when we have a hot pot, they go off short? He's already 7/4 best price?
Interesting that you thing like makes it highly unlikely. Having no competition in the UK isn't going to push his price out? Next time he runs, you think he doesn't get trimmed?
Only one from Ireland can win the Irish Arkle, at best they'll have two that look really good that haven't clashed and that'd perhaps take enough out of the market which is feasible if it's a high profile one, but......I would go as far as to say it's highly unlikely Shishkin goes off odds against!
I'd make it odds on, that he's odds on....
Based on that I don't think my OP will age that well
'Highly unlikely' is, well, 'probably' (very likely to be) wrong. You've made a strong case there Kev, and beaten me with historical fact (I like that)
The odds he goes off will be heavily dictated by how frequently Nicky campaigns him, the company he keeps in those races, and what emerges as potential contenders from Ireland. As someone who thinks he'll race 1-2 times before March vs vastly inferior opposition like today, I don't think open schooling sessions should be enough on their own for him to go odds on, but just because I don't think that should be the case, doesn't mean it won't be. He probably will, and that will also be based on what's happening in Ireland.
I am quietly hopeful there are some very decent novices over there. We've all discussed some of them - Unexpected, Klassical Dream and of course, Elixir D'Any
For all I know he could go off 1/4 and I end up being wildly wrong about Shishkin's price. That being said, this time last year I was wildly right about Shishkin's price at 40/1, so happy to be proven wrong this year
Copy and pasted from 24 hrs ago. I just hope amongst those arguing over ‘price value’ on Shishkin that there was indeed value up until 1.24pm today. You just got to find it and be a tiny bit brave.
Was a good spot that bet.
Although those types are not always as palatable for many (for obvious reasons)
One of my favourite things last year was that about 5 seconds before the start of the Ballymore, the track commentator announced Envoi has just gone from 8/13 to 4/7.
Why you ask?
When I was trying to sell my mate into backing EA antepost for the race at 10s the summer before, i specifically him he’d go off and win at odds on - the actual quote was ‘he absolutely pisses in bro - 10s on a 4/7 shot will look beautiful on the morning’. So how we laughed up in the grandstand after the race that he went off 4/7.
What is your point MOM?
I told the exact same mate this year that Shishkin is the repeat at 9/2 for the Arkle. And I boldly predicted 8/13 for him.
So the answer to the ‘will he go off odds on question’, I can confirmthe answer is yes. He will. 8/13 SP.
Brilliant Mr Middle of March,
Your quote there sounded like a mirror of me. I too took the 10/1 and was telling a lot of people he’ll go off 4/6 for the Ballymore. I got it wrong - he went off 4/7. I even had the pleasure of telling the ITV viewers, Olly Bell and his good looking mate Chris whatshisface live on the Morning Show I’d got 10/1.
A few days after this years festival I concluded that all of Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Easysland would go off each at around the 4/6 mark for their respective races. I’m sticking to my prices I told my work colleagues in late March this year - they’ll all be 4/6 sp’s at the off. Just a considered hunch a year out.
Charlie- deserving to be odds on & being odds on are as we know in this game very different things. Even if he only had one more start in a tin pot novice chase he has the trainer/jockey a festival win for his odds to always be on the short side.
The irony with what ive just said was he drifted like an absolute barge in the supreme on course I think he was 7/1 in places on the boards briefly
Charlie- deserving to be odds on & being odds on are as we know in this game very different things. Even if he only had one more start in a tin pot novice chase he has the trainer/jockey a festival win for his odds to always be on the short side.
The irony with what ive just said was he drifted like an absolute barge in the supreme on course I think he was 7/1 in places on the boards briefly
I underlined the word should to emphasise this very point.
Im in the 'impressed, but not impressed as almost everyone else' camp. Clearly it was a very good intro. His fencing was as good as almost any novice I've seen. But it was basically no race. The hatchet job on Mick Pastor was almost embarrassing! And despite pulling his head off for the whole race he was still only a handful of lengths behind coming off the final bend when Nico asked for a bit more.
I'm not trying to crab him but do think he looks short. I still wonder about his cruising speed and will be very interested to see him up against a real speedball who will go off at a breakneck pace and get him out of his comfort zone. Obviously the stiff finish at Chelts is perfect for him, but I don't think he will be able to lay up with very quick horses myself.
One thing worth nothing is its highly unlikely IMO Shishkin goes off odds on at Cheltenham, as I doubt he'll beat anything on the way to justify that short a price.
Plus, by the time March rolls around you'd hope one or two of the Irish have emerged as contenders - I'd love to see this market develop into a really competitive affair
I'd say it was odds on he'll go off odds on if he wins his prep. Regardless of what happens elsewhere. Hendersons hype will make sure of that. He's 6/4 now !
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