Arkle - 2021

[Outlaw]

What impact will the scraping of the novice handicap chase have on field numbers? Will a few 140-145 rated horses now take a shot at the Grade 1s, or will we just get more novices contesting the handicaps?

I'd assumed the Arkle and Marsh would be small field events but they may be padded out a little with average horses.

You'd hope so as even with a couple of potential superstars something has to come 2nd & 3rd so be disappointing to have 7< fields. Bin the Fred Winter too at some point to have only the best 4yo entered but that's another discussion.

[Quevega]

Haha, yeah that is what I'm asking.

I'm saying it's unfair though to say someone is a mug for taking 7/4 after seeing a brilliant performance, than educated guessing at 5/2?



The rest is me just saying I'd not do either anyway, but didn't need saying.




I think you're being a bit mean....

Just my opinion that neither bet is especially good value.
They are Premium prices and are completely reliant on the Fear of missing out factor.
It's the cute teddy syndrome. It's hard to say no when they're screaming at your face.

Which we all suffer with from time to time (I don't exclude myself).
But this is one I can easily avoid.

[ryanh97]

....Ladbrokes have a Shishkin Special;

Shishkin to win Arkle/2022 CC & Envoi to win 2022 GC @ 200-1 (250-1 with boost).

Can just see Archie's response to that coming now... add another 0 on the end?

[Quevega]

What impact will the scraping of the novice handicap chase have on field numbers? Will a few 140-145 rated horses now take a shot at the Grade 1s, or will we just get more novices contesting the handicaps?

I'd assumed the Arkle and Marsh would be small field events but they may be padded out a little with average horses.

They've added the race pre-festival that may make the impact negligible, as they may be spread far and wide, across the novice races and all the handicaps. Or not at all.

[Kevloaf]

Just my opinion that neither bet is especially good value.
They are Premium prices and are completely reliant on the Fear of missing out factor.
It's the cute teddy syndrome. It's hard to say no when they're screaming at your face.

Which we all suffer with from time to time (I don't exclude myself).
But this is one I can easily avoid.

I know you can afford to avoid it, I'm taking you to hypothetical land....


Right, put these in order....1st,2nd,3rd,4th

A) Back high profile horse X over summer at 5/1
B) Back high profile horse X on morning of novice chase debut at 5/2
C) Back high profile horse X after watching excellent chase debut at 7/4
D) Don't back high profile horse X until NRNB at EVEN


I'd go, A,D,C,B

[nortonscoin200]

It was just a really good school round though wasn't it ?
The opposition are going to run scared. He's just going to have a procession every time he races.
He's beaten the square root of nothing in that race just then.
It remains to be seen what his jumping will be like when he's got someone upsides exerting pressure.
Not sure he'll be able to jump like that in softer ground, he might need it on the better side.
I'd want to see him against proper grade one animals before I think he's the next sprinter sacre.

I've just been possessed by the resident Grouch.
KB

You sound a bit like Craig on Strictly.

[Vautour]

Just watched the Shishkin race - looked absolutely superb. Very excited now as have a 1400 point return coming from Shishkin/Envoi double. They have both made two of the best debuts I have seen in terms of jumping in the last 5 years. Footpad is the only I can remember being as good. Hopefully they stay sound. The chasing division, novices and open, is hugely exciting at the moment.

[Quevega]

You sound a bit like Craig on Strictly.

KB would love that

[Quevega]

I know you can afford to avoid it, I'm taking you to hypothetical land....


Right, put these in order....1st,2nd,3rd,4th

A) Back high profile horse X over summer at 5/1
B) Back high profile horse X on morning of novice chase debut at 5/2
C) Back high profile horse X after watching excellent chase debut at 7/4
D) Don't back high profile horse X until NRNB at EVEN


I'd go, A,D,C,B

Depends on the horse and race obviously.
But if this was Shishkin for the arkle.
I'd go
D, A, B, C

[charlie]

Just watched the Shishkin race - looked absolutely superb. Very excited now as have a 1400 point return coming from Shishkin/Envoi double. They have both made two of the best debuts I have seen in terms of jumping in the last 5 years. Footpad is the only I can remember being as good. Hopefully they stay sound. The chasing division, novices and open, is hugely exciting at the moment.

For me it's the intelligence they've both shown debut that has impressed me most.

All very well meeting every fence on a perfect stride and winging them vs inferior opposition, but its the ability to show intelligence at a fence and correct when short for example, that will stand them in good stead when it comes to deeper races vs better animals.

[riccirich]

Where's that tumbleweed emoji.......

Not saying I think he'd beat shishkin, but given that he was in the process of pushing chantry house very close when he came down, albeit over a trip likely short of chantrys best, surely makes him a test? In that if shishkin beat him by ten lengths you'd have to be impressed?

[Altior]

Freak of a horse lads, absolute beast. For once Nicky might not have been lying when he said he schooled like Sprinter and Altior. Cannot see him being beat if healthy. Has everything.

[Kevloaf]

Not saying I think he'd beat shishkin, but given that he was in the process of pushing chantry house very close when he came down, albeit over a trip likely short of chantrys best, surely makes him a test? In that if shishkin beat him by ten lengths you'd have to be impressed?

Pic D'Orhy was beaten 4L by Le Patriote, before falling last time out ..... so that's probably why people aren't interested in him anymore.

[Altior]

I really like Pic but he's a very low jumper, almost bellies every one.

[Quevega]

Not saying I think he'd beat shishkin, but given that he was in the process of pushing chantry house very close when he came down, albeit over a trip likely short of chantrys best, surely makes him a test? In that if shishkin beat him by ten lengths you'd have to be impressed?

You think he was pushing him really close ?
He fell three out.
The horse that ended up getting beat 26L was going just as well.