National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[charlie]

I agree Kev, I have little doubt BBB runs here and I'm very surprised to see Ladbrokes still quoting 25/1. Can see 20's is still widely available.

5 out of the 6 ahead of BBB in the market are far more likely to be RSA bound (Delta Work, Kilbricken Storm, Santini, Next Destination and Cracking Smart), and we know that Delta Work and Santini have next to no chance of being aimed here.

Based on the information we have now, I am very surprised 25’s is available. Historically Gordon has done very well in the 4 miler. He cited the 4 miler at the start of the season. BBB jumps well and shapes like he is crying out for a step up in trip, he was one paced yesterday and that’s putting it lightly. He has festival form in a race (as Kev points out) that has an illustrious roll of honour for future stayers. Gigginstown have Cracking Smart, Delta Work and Champagne Classic that would be more likely to line up in the RSA.

Between 2011 and 2018 Gordon has won 3 NHC. Prices (winners in Bold):

Jury Duty 4/1f
Mossback 6/1
Tiger Roll 16/1
Noble Endeavor 15/2
Cause Of Causes 8/1
Chicago Grey 5/1f

Providing the step up to 3m+ goes well, which I imagine will happen at Leopardstown over xmas and/or the novice chase at Naas in Jan, there is no way BBB will go off anywhere near 25/1. B365 have him at 20/1. Given their cash out option I’d say that’s a cracking bet

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Agree with all this Charlie and was also surprised to see how much he was pushed out. As much as I love the cash out option equally tempted by the 28s price boost with Ladbrokes.

Should also mention PP are unmoved at 14/1

[jono]

Providing the step up to 3m+ goes well, which I imagine will happen at Leopardstown over xmas and/or the novice chase at Naas in Jan, there is no way BBB will go off anywhere near 25/1. B365 have him at 20/1. Given their cash out option I’d say that’s a cracking bet

Agreed. There's no chance Blow by Blow lines up here in double figures even if he were to disappoint now until March, however bad he ran. Does anyone know his chase mark now? I'd imagine it's around 146? So he wouldn't be to far off the highest rated horses in this race already which is another big positive for him.

Concentrating on the horses with the highest OR is THE angle I look for more than any other now on this race. No doubt they'll be a couple of horses in here at 150+ but he could easily get to that kind of figure over his next couple of runs, especially if they are over trips more suited to him.

On Jerrysback - he's been upped to 144 after his win at the weekend which is encouraging in that regard as well. I'd like to see him have another run at the track (trials day) but I'd be assuming he will get another run or two in before getting his final prep run in the Reynoldstown at Ascot (Minella Rocco and No Comment both ran there before this race) and increase that rating further. The more experience the better for me though I know he has been fragile in the past so i'm sure they'll be making sure he has plenty of time between races.

A fair comment
I've added Jerrysback with 365 - 33/1 - Derek on board?

If Jerrysback were to run in this race i'd be confident yeah. Has a good connection with the horse in his Point to Point days riding him all for times. Now the likes of O'Connor and Codd will often pick up the rides for any promising PtP horse so just saying he rode him before won't account to much but after his PtP win at Loughanmore he did say he was :

one of the most exciting prospects I’ve ridden for a while

And the fact he liked a tweet where I asked him "You're ride in the 4 miler Derek?" in regards to Jerrysback...well that's pretty much legally binding now in my book

[Kevloaf]

And the fact he liked a tweet where I asked him "You're ride in the 4 miler Derek?" in regards to Jerrysback...well that's pretty much legally binding now in my book

Yeah, he'll refund any losing betting slips I heard.


http://www.hri-ras.ie/ihrb-handicap-...l-nh-ratings/# Blow By Blow no chase rating on their yet and that's where I usually check. Delta Work is 153 who obviously won the race.

[archie]

Blow By Blow has no chasing mark as yet. 150 over hurdles but he's not shown that level of form chasing. A line through Some Neck would have him around 144 but you wouldn't be thrilled about his attitude and I think Some Neck is over-rated on 145.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Blow By Blow has no chasing mark as yet. 150 over hurdles but he's not shown that level of form chasing. A line through Some Neck would have him around 144 but you wouldn't be thrilled about his attitude and I think Some Neck is over-rated on 145.

By the time the British handicapper finished with BBB he'll be rated 150+, as will Some Neck.

[charlie]

Blow By Blow has no chasing mark as yet. 150 over hurdles but he's not shown that level of form chasing. A line through Some Neck would have him around 144 but you wouldn't be thrilled about his attitude and I think Some Neck is over-rated on 145.

I thought the way he fought back against some neck was exactly the type of attitude you'd want from a horse stepping up if aimed here.

[boopa]

Bit harsh to question his attitude. Just got outpaced.

[charlie]

Bit harsh to question his attitude. Just got outpaced.

Agree. I want him aimed here so seeing outpaced over 2m4f when everything about him screams further doesn't make me question his attitude at all

[JackieMoon33]

Bit harsh to question his attitude. Just got outpaced.

He was also wearing a visor for the first time and it may have had an adverse effect on him instead of a positive one.

[archie]

He won the Martin Pipe over 2m4.5f and got thrashed by proper stayers at Punchestown. Clutching at straws to think that 4 miles is going to be the making of him. A slow horse is a slow horse.

[SeanRock]

He won the Martin Pipe over 2m4.5f and got thrashed by proper stayers at Punchestown. Clutching at straws to think that 4 miles is going to be the making of him. A slow horse is a slow horse.

In fairness a lot of good horses underperform at Punchestown after having long hard seasons. He won at Navan & Galway over 2m 7f and the Martin Pipe roll of honor is littered with stayers so I wouldn’t be concerned on that front.

[Folski]

He won the Martin Pipe over 2m4.5f and got thrashed by proper stayers at Punchestown. Clutching at straws to think that 4 miles is going to be the making of him. A slow horse is a slow horse.

Presenting Percy got thrashed in the same race the year before. Not saying you are wrong but as I have said before I backed BBB at 33/1 for the MP last year, when I told the owner of my local I had backed him, he told me Pat Healy (main racing photographer in Ireland) had been in the bar 2 weeks prior, he always stops in for a pint before he does a preview in another pub just outside of town, Pat had told him that Elliott said BBB was his biggest fancy of the entire week.

Now personally I am not in love with BBB for this race but when you take into account the quality and number of winners Gordon had last year, you have to take note of a comment like that, coupled with the fact the horse had a tough race at Cheltenham he may have been over the top after. His runs to me so far this season suggest handicap rather than 4m though.

[Scooby91]

He won the Martin Pipe over 2m4.5f and got thrashed by proper stayers at Punchestown. Clutching at straws to think that 4 miles is going to be the making of him. A slow horse is a slow horse.

Id agree, iv got him any race at 18s but i wont sugar coat it. he's been piss poor last 2 runs. Same As he was over hurdles up in grade. And won a very weak race on debut. I'd rather him get a mark and go for the Kim Muir than here, Hard to see him winning this imo.

[charlie]

He won the Martin Pipe over 2m4.5f and got thrashed by proper stayers at Punchestown. Clutching at straws to think that 4 miles is going to be the making of him. A slow horse is a slow horse.

Loads of great stayers graduate from the Martin Pipe. Presenting Percy was 'thrashed' in the same race at Punchestwon. BBB won a grade 1 over 2m so isn't slow.