National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[Kevloaf]

It's a tricky one.
I like him and even though he races keen, some can look like that and it not really take much out of them. I hope he's one of those.
The stronger gallop could also disadvantage him as the ones with more experience that have been through the pain barrier before (like recent stats suggest) may become more of a threat.
I'm basing my confidence on his class and the bartlett run, where barry waited too long and then almost stopped at the last.
The horse still picked up best of the others and ran on bravely.
There aren't many horses that have run in this in their novice season that would've been close to favourite in the RSA.

A part of Ok Corral's price now is the 'plot' or plan when Derek O'Connor was jocked up...and he won.

If Codd had been booked on Champange Classic he'd be shorter than he is now... and when it gets officially announced he'll shorten. BUT CC didn't win.

I don't think the marklet reacts the same way to Patrick Mullins (even though it should) because really they should take no chances on any Mullins runner but they do, until jocked up or it looks obvious.

I think I'd back Ballyward now at the prices if I was having one bet.... but I am really keen on Ok Corral still

[Quevega]

A part of Ok Corral's price now is the 'plot' or plan when Derek O'Connor was jocked up...and he won.

If Codd had been booked on Champange Classic he'd be shorter than he is now... and when it gets officially announced he'll shorten. BUT CC didn't win.

I don't think the marklet reacts the same way to Patrick Mullins (even though it should) because really they should take no chances on any Mullins runner but they do, until jocked up or it looks obvious.

I think I'd back Ballyward now at the prices if I was having one bet.... but I am really keen on Ok Corral still

I would do exactly the same.

[Humble Pie]

I would do exactly the same.

Summed up perfectly

[Kevloaf]

Do you think Champange Classic will shorten again? I do when it's announced Codd is riding - so MAYBE if I was having a bet NOW, I'd back CC e/w - but he does look a little bit held by Ballyward and even Discorama

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you think Champange Classic will shorten again? I do when it's announced Codd is riding - so MAYBE if I was having a bet NOW, I'd back CC e/w - but he does look a little bit held by Ballyward and even Discorama

Codd won't be riding, will he?

Gordon said Lisa O'Neil will get the choice between gun digger and CC. It'd be a surprise of she didn't pick CC, on all known form.

[Kevloaf]

Codd won't be riding, will he?

Gordon said Lisa O'Neil will get the choice between gun digger and CC. It'd be a surprise of she didn't pick CC, on all known form.

Also been reported from a preview that Codd's rides will be:

Measureofmydreams (Kim Muir)
Champange Classic (4 miler)
Envoi Allen (Bumper)
Ucello Conti (Fox)


I'm not sure Lisa O'Neill will really get the choice.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Also been reported from a preview that Codd's rides will be:

Measureofmydreams (Kim Muir)
Champange Classic (4 miler)
Envoi Allen (Bumper)
Ucello Conti (Fox)


I'm not sure Lisa O'Neill will really get the choice.

These preview evening can muddy the water slightly. It wouldn't surprise me if GD wasnt even declared in this. Mortal and CC would be the two Gigginstown I'd run in this.

[Kevloaf]

I can't have Codd on the 2nd choice for Gordon or Gigginstown, no matter what they say.

[Istabraq]

These preview evening can muddy the water slightly. It wouldn't surprise me if GD wasnt even declared in this. Mortal and CC would be the two Gigginstown I'd run in this.

Definitely.
Jocks/Trainers will always be guarded, it's not in their interests to be over honest...

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Would Jack Kennedy not be riding Envoi Allen?

[Bayoffreedom]

Would Jack Kennedy not be riding Envoi Allen?

Doubt it. I would always take a top Irish amateur over an Irish professional (who never ride in Bumpers). It isn't a coincidence that, out of six Irish trained winners in the last 10 years, five have been ridden by amateurs (the other was ridden by Ruby)

[Kevloaf]

Would Jack Kennedy not be riding Envoi Allen?

Even if Jamie Codd as injured I doubt Jack Kennedy would get the ride. Lisa or Barry O'Neill.


They ride in bumpers much more often, and Jamie Codd is 100% going to be aboard Envoi Allen barring injury.

[The King Pimm]

I don't think that Ballyward is bombproof but I do think that he's the most likely winner.

Discorama has decent form including finishing a respectable 5th in the best novice chase in Ireland this season but to bet on a horse that you listened to without watching a replay is going back 30 years in time. My own opinion of that race is that I think that Ballyward would have won but that's all it can be because Discorama fell. To not back Ballyward because of Mullins faller stats is, frankly, very odd but entirely a choice that you are entitled to make.

I suppose that makes me ‘old school’ then Archie if I listen to the radio!! . I listen to most horse racing on the William Hill radio app on my phone as I’m nearly always working, I only get to watch horse racing on the tv on the weekend if I’m home. I do enjoy the WH radio coverage, very entertaining and informative.
With regards to not backing Ballyward because of the Mullins faller stats I should point out that 3 of my biggest single bets last year at the Festival were on Douvan, Al Boom Photo and Invitation Only so I still wear the scars from those bets so after reading the Mullins stat on the numbers & percentage of fallers I’ve steered away from his jump horses this year and focussed on his hurdlers. Ballyward will probably win this race, Mullins did win it last year. If these reasons still make my logic odd then it’s probably because I am bit odd but this is one of the toughest races of the 4 days IMHBEO

[boopa]

Old school or daft. No offence but you need to watch the races.

[Quevega]

I suppose that makes me ‘old school’ then Archie if I listen to the radio!! . I listen to most horse racing on the William Hill radio app on my phone as I’m nearly always working, I only get to watch horse racing on the tv on the weekend if I’m home. I do enjoy the WH radio coverage, very entertaining and informative.
With regards to not backing Ballyward because of the Mullins faller stats I should point out that 3 of my biggest single bets last year at the Festival were on Douvan, Al Boom Photo and Invitation Only so I still wear the scars from those bets so after reading the Mullins stat on the numbers & percentage of fallers I’ve steered away from his jump horses this year and focussed on his hurdlers. Ballyward will probably win this race, Mullins did win it last year. If these reasons still make my logic odd then it’s probably because I am bit odd but this is one of the toughest races of the 4 days IMHBEO

What does IMHBEO mean pimm ?

You do come across a bit quirky, and I think you're probably a bit reactionary in an impulsive manner more often than not (with your punting).

Am I wrong ?

I've never got the IMHO abbreviation (like I'd ever doubt someone's opinion as not being honest)
I'd disagree and think the opinions may be wrong and ill informed but not dishonest.