National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[monkfish]

If you went through the card on the Friday last year then you had both winners and amazing prices.

[Old Vic]

Let’s get back to the race - I am happy to discuss other stuff on an aftertiming thread

[TimRiggins]

I think we've been here before, not sure if it was yourself or someone else?

I have a question though, how many different horses do you back per race? I suspect it's not 1 per race given your wins/race strike rate.

[ziggym]

Let’s get back to the race - I am happy to discuss other stuff on an aftertiming thread

I agree, I didnt start this.

[ziggym]

Strangely enough, Im not you pleb.

[Kevloaf]

The way to get Ok Corral beat would be to go really slow and hope he wastes energy tanking and /or pulling too hard.

If they go a strong pace his class will ensure he gets the trip.

I think he's a really solid favourite as the best horse (most talented) in the race. I don't think anything is dour enough to run the finish out of him.

[boopa]

Ok Corral is clear on my figures. I'm not bothered about him settling DO will bury him. Wouldn't want to lay 3/1 personally.

[TheClaimer]

Doesn't it worry you that Henderson has never trained a 4 mile winner?

[mayo]

Doesn't it worry you that Henderson has never trained a 4 mile winner?

Do any of them tick Gault trends

3 of the last 4 had each already run in 10 chases
Eight of the last nine were chasing by 31st Oct.
Since becoming Graded, no winner with less than 3 chase runs.

[The King Pimm]

Do any of them tick Gault trends

3 of the last 4 had each already run in 10 chases
Eight of the last nine were chasing by 31st Oct.
Since becoming Graded, no winner with less than 3 chase runs.

Very interesting Mayo.....that makes Ibis Du Rheu look more interesting

[charlie]

Very interesting Mayo.....that makes Ibis Du Rheu look more interesting

I have Discorama, Ballyward and OK Corral. Having gone through all runners thoroughly with no intention of backing anything else, the only one I had to add was Ibis Du Rheu. He is not really being mentioned much but the potential fly in the ointment. 20/1 NRNB B365

[archie]

I had already picked out Discorama ante posts before reading the Mullins stats about fallers if I’m honest. I listened to that race live you’re referring too which Ballyward won and it sounded a very confident performance but it also sounded like Discorama was also ready to pounce before falling. I’m not that overly confident with any of the horses in a 4 mile chase with amateur riders but before reading the Mullins stats on fallers was going to involve Ballyward in a few accumulators but I don’t think it’s worth the risk at 3/1 (5/1 previously). Do you think Ballyward is bomb proof?

I don't think that Ballyward is bombproof but I do think that he's the most likely winner.

Discorama has decent form including finishing a respectable 5th in the best novice chase in Ireland this season but to bet on a horse that you listened to without watching a replay is going back 30 years in time. My own opinion of that race is that I think that Ballyward would have won but that's all it can be because Discorama fell. To not back Ballyward because of Mullins faller stats is, frankly, very odd but entirely a choice that you are entitled to make.

[Quevega]

The way to get Ok Corral beat would be to go really slow and hope he wastes energy tanking and /or pulling too hard.

If they go a strong pace his class will ensure he gets the trip.

I think he's a really solid favourite as the best horse (most talented) in the race. I don't think anything is dour enough to run the finish out of him.

It's a tricky one.
I like him and even though he races keen, some can look like that and it not really take much out of them. I hope he's one of those.
The stronger gallop could also disadvantage him as the ones with more experience that have been through the pain barrier before (like recent stats suggest) may become more of a threat.
I'm basing my confidence on his class and the bartlett run, where barry waited too long and then almost stopped at the last.
The horse still picked up best of the others and ran on bravely.
There aren't many horses that have run in this in their novice season that would've been close to favourite in the RSA.

[Muswell]

Ground was pretty horrible come the Bartlett

[Quevega]

Ground was pretty horrible come the Bartlett

yeah,
I rated that form at beginning of the season as they just have to have good engines and hearts to have ran well in that race.
As novices.