National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

[jono]

This is actually one of my favourite races at the festival and i've been lucky enough to have 4 of the last 6 winners in the race (which is probably why I like it! )

I bought up Bacardys in the Stayers thread so thought best to move it into a new thread before continuing on:

Bacardys 33/1

...
If connections did keep to hurdles with him he would be of some interest but I fully expect him to go chasing again. Without going too far off topic...

At the time Mullins was clear they only reverted back to hurdles to keep his novice status over fences for next season. The vibes coming out from the yard at the start of last season were actually really positive with Bacardys and how he was taking to fences so it was quite surprising how he fared in his 2 chase starts last season as you couldn't have got that same feeling when watching him back.

They may well have a few types for the race but Bacardys stands out by a mile for me in the 4 miler for next year (33/1), particularly as i'd agree with archie in that Patrick is the only one to really get a tune out of him. Although he didn't fare too well in those chase runs, I think they could work out to be a blessing in disguise. Rathvinden, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes all had plenty of experience over fences before wining the race (either through an extra year over fences or running throughout the summer)

Patrick onboard, an extra year over fences, a clear stayer who does his best at the end of his races - an ideal type.

So not much else to note. He would obviously have to improve on his jumping but it is one of the few festival races where you can get by without being the most natural or fluent jumper of a fence. The slow pace means jockeys can ease horses into the race, a rare luxury in most festival races. Minella Rocco won despite having some major jumping flaws, Tiger Roll clattered many fences when he won and you only have to look at the race run by Pylonthepressure last year to emphasise this point!

It's also slightly interesting that he fell on his PtP debut and Hurdles debut and in both spheres he went onto improve considerably so perhaps his slow start to chasing will follow the same path...

cpfcpatriot makes a good point:

That’s a cracking shout at that price when you consider the odds he was for the RSA this time last year.

I had him at 10/1 any race before his debut last season and seem to recall he was no bigger than 16/1 for the RSA. It's hard to look back and not find him in any of the preview books or horses to follow lists for 17/18 such was the expectation for him going over fences and stepping up in trip.

A couple of quotes from Mullins, pre-festival:

We will hold onto his novice status over fences until next season and the plan is to run him in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Bacardys also goes for the Stayers’ Hurdle. We’ll just keep his maiden over fences for another season. He was a short price for the Ballymore and we just think he’ll take his chance in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

I'm certain they'll give fences another go and that it'll be 3 miles at a minimum for the horse come the Spring. He may improve enough so the RSA is still the target (sadly not in the any race market at the moment) but for now, i'd be confident this race is far more likely and Patrick Mullins maybe having his eye on retaining the race with him.


1pt EW added

[somer1]

Just asked Skybet for a price any race as im getting stuck this far away from the fest

[BigChaang]

I like your thinking about bacardys for this race Jono , And a nice price too .

[somer1]

Skybet gone there famous 10/1 any race

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Great shout Jono, I remember many of us were all over the great case you made for Elegant Escape in this last year (50/1 I believe) , who of course went on to finish an honourable 3rd in the RSA. As things turned out Rathvinden made for great compensation. I'll be following you in again on this one

[BigChaang]

Any other horses floating your Boat for this Race Jono ?, Haven't given it too much thought , my only bet so far
with Delta Work .@ 25-1.

[jono]

Cheers RC. Despite not running in the race Elegant Escape hopefully gave us all a good ride through the season at least!

Any other horses floating your Boat for this Race Jono ?, Haven't given it too much thought , my only bet so far with Delta Work .@ 25-1.

Yet to have a proper look at the race yet BC but as usual i’ll always have it in the back of my mind to spot the possible
JP horse(s) (Derek O’Connor)
Gordon Elliott/Gigginstown horse(s) (Jamie Codd)
Mullins horse (Patrick Mullins)

I do like Delta Work and he fits into the above. The fact he backed up his festival win at Punchestown by only narrowly losing out to Next Destination is very encouraging going forward for me. As is the case most seasons Gigginstown have plenty of novice chasers coming through from last year:

Samcro
Mengli Khan
Cracking Smart
Delta Work
Blow by Blow
Dortmund Park

Where any of the others go is irrelevant regarding Samcro of course and Mengli Khan is surely bound for the Arkle but I could easily see any of the other 4 go for this race so although 25/1 is available i’d be looking at the 20/1 any race (WH) with Delta Work. That does hold plenty of appeal and is a bet I think I will place as I would like to have him onside generally.

Another Gigginstown/Elliott horse who I presume will also be going novice chasing this year but missed last season is Champagne Classic

A horse I hoped would have been slightly forgotten for the new season - he’s not included in the betting yet but the fact he does show in the RSA market at just 16/1 tells me that it’s unlikely he has been forgotten! The Punchestown race he won following his Cheltenham Festival win where he had the following horses behind him that day looks ridiculous on paper now:

Penhill
Monalee
Al Boum Photo
Presenting Percy

So another to add to the Gigginstown Novice Chaser Bingo above but I was really keen on him for the race last year before injury ruled him out so if he gets a positive mention and some entries at the start of the season then he is right up there for me. Such were the horses he beat that day though, despite O'Learys comments about the horse they may try and aim him for the the more high profile novice chases at the Festival, as the market currently seems to suggest.

[jono]

Also as it's a new year and new thread, i'll re-iterate the record of the highest OR in the race.
2018 continued the trend:

2018
Rathvinden 150 1st
Mossback 150 Fell
Jury Duty 148 U
Ms Parfois 146 2nd (7lb allowance technically put her highest rated)
Next up at 145*Finished 3, 6

2017
Edwulf 152 PU
(but would have placed)
Beware The Bear 148 7th
Next up at 145*Finished 1, 2, 9

2016
Vicente 153 5th
(Native River 149 2nd)

2015
Causes of Causes 145 1st

2014
Shotgun Paddy 151 2nd

2013
Back in Focus 150 1st
(Tofino bay 149 2nd)

2012
Teaforthree 146 1st

That's 1-PU-5-1-2-1-1

[Old Vic]

Good work on this thread already ...

[Kevloaf]

Good work on this thread already ...

It does get the juices flowing when jono bothers to pop in for a bit of analysis



jono - I'd forgotten about how serious that Champange Classic piece of form was! I'd have to be on any race though, as he won over 2m4f and 3m and could easily end up here.... certainly one that I'll be getting serious about if as you say, he gets some entries early on! Too risky at this stage as we don't know if he'll come back... "without doubt, the worst horse I own"


Just spotted and placed in the Any Race thread that he's 20/1 with WH.

[Faugheen_Machine]

OK Corral is available at 33/1 for this and 25/1 (William Hill) for any race. He's a lightly raced 8 year old having missed over two years due to injury, following a two length defeat to Yorkhill in a bumper.

He progressed over hurdles last season and ran brilliant race when runner up in the AB at the festival on soft ground. He then ran at Aintree and was well held in 5th but this is easy to forgive (for me) due to the hard race he had at Cheltenham in march.

He turns 9 in January and I'd imagine he's a certainty to go over fences this season. With a rating of 148 over hurdles (probably not the ceiling of his rating over hurdles) he has the residual class to be a player in this race imo. I have a vague recollection of NJH mentioning this race as the potential target for OK Corral next season but would rather take 25/1 in case things don't go to plan.

2pts OK Corral 25/1 with WH.

[Kevloaf]

OK Corral is available at 33/1 for this and 25/1 (William Hill) for any race. He's a lightly raced 8 year old having missed over two years due to injury, following a two length defeat to Yorkhill in a bumper.

He progressed over hurdles last season and ran brilliant race when runner up in the AB at the festival on soft ground. He then ran at Aintree and was well held in 5th but this is easy to forgive (for me) due to the hard race he had at Cheltenham in march.

He turns 9 in January and I'd imagine he's a certainty to go over fences this season. With a rating of 148 over hurdles (probably not the ceiling of his rating over hurdles) he has the residual class to be a player in this race imo. I have a vague recollection of NJH mentioning this race as the potential target for OK Corral next season but would rather take 25/1 in case things don't go to plan.

2pts OK Corral 25/1 with WH.

I have already backed Ok Corral at 27/1 any race with WH (probably mentioned in the Stayers Hurdle thread). I think this race does make a lot of sense for him.but would definitely take the any race as you suggest. IF he rematched with Santini I'd expect Santini to beat him, so you'd think Nicky would want him in the 4 miler and the owner would have no issues with that

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have already backed Ok Corral at 27/1 any race with WH (probably mentioned in the Stayers Hurdle thread). I think this race does make a lot of sense for him.but would definitely take the any race as you suggest. IF he rematched with Santini I'd expect Santini to beat him, so you'd think Nicky would want him in the 4 miler and the owner would have no issues with that

You'd also get a top amateur in the saddle, given the owner.

[Kevloaf]

You'd also get a top amateur in the saddle, given the owner.

Yeah absolutely right, Derek O'Connor on a JP owned horse has become quite a strong association in this race hasn't it.

[BigChaang]

I see that Tower Bridge , trained by Joseph O'brien also listed for this race , J.p. Mcmanus owned .