J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Scooby91]

This is lazy but one to consider for the JLT perhaps (not exciting odds at 16/1)

Source - Daily Mail (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ra...Alan-King.html)

Trainer Alan King is already dreaming of what Messire Des Obeaux may do over fences next year after he ran out a comprehensive winner of the Betfred Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury.

Having made a winning reappearance in a Bangor handicap before claiming a Grade Two prize at Sandown, King's charge was chasing a hat-trick in this Grade One event, which has been won in the past by the likes of the mighty Denman as well as Grand National hero Bindaree.



3rd behind Willoughby Court and Neon Wolf (only 3L back) - if he's always thought she was a chaser?




Not mentioned in his stable tour though and I have no recollection of any news about her after her 3rd at Aintree behind the ill-fated Finian's Oscar.


HEr hurdles form was very solid though - I don't suppose anyone has a clue about her do they?

He looked like a 3 mile chaser all over in his novice season imo. But id want a big price on him 66s or so.

[Kevloaf]

Why have I got in my head that he is a she?

I only mentioned her as I stumbled across her and I've gone on about the owners and this race specifically recently.

I assume all is not well though, no chance she wouldn't have made the stable tour as a Challow Hurdle winner is there?

[thistlecracker]

Shame VDF fell fairly early on... Didn’t look like a lot to beat after watching the whole race.

[archie]

More of a shame that they've used maybe 15% of the season's petrol and learned nothing.

[Kevloaf]

More of a shame that they've used maybe 15% of the season's petrol and learned nothing.

That needs some explaining... (not the learned nothing part, I get that)

Are you saying a horse has a finite amount of energy and/or ability over a season that gets used up in races?

Without getting scientific, some 'work' that horses do may be harder on them than some races.... so where has 15% come from?

I've seen plenty of horses make a quick re-apperance after an un-seat (I obviously don't have the statistics around ones that have then gone on to complete without jumping) but would they not want him out again sooner rather than later (if he's come out of the experience okay?)

At the end of the season I've never thought to myself, "this horse unseated or fell early in a race this season so he won't be to best effect here" - surely how well tuned they are "for the day" has these factors accounted for already.

[archie]

It's a very rough figure but most good novice chasers would only want 6 or 7 runs max in a season. Every horse has different physical and mental reserves and we aren't privy to how much he used yesterday. Sometimes horses are sent for a prep run but Tizzard always used to have a reputation for being fairly hard on the gallops and having them pretty straight first time so, unless Joe has mellowed his old man a little, I'd suggest that VDF used up one of his runs.
No damage done if he turns out to be one of those that need to be out regularly.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It wouldn't surprise me if they run him next weekend. That will have taken next to nothing out of him imo.

Did anyone else think it was a soft unseat by Scu? If that was Bryan Cooper in the plate then i think pundits would have been critical.

[ComplyOrDie]

It wouldn't surprise me if they run him next weekend. That will have taken next to nothing out of him imo.

Did anyone else think it was a soft unseat by Scu? If that was Bryan Cooper in the plate then i think pundits would have been critical.

Agree about the unseat, balance was pretty poor tbf! Cooper would have beeen slated for sure.

Bit gutted we didn't see what VDF had, but there will be plenty more chances, and I'd rather the mistakes early on in the season so they have a chance of being rectified. It's not as if the fences before the unseat caused him any issues, in fact the fence prior to the unseat he absolutely flew over.

[Kevloaf]

Patrick, Willie and Ruby have all at different stages asaid Getabird has speed and stamina. Is this the OBVIOUS race?

Ruby:
Referring to the strapping Getabird, a horse bred to be a chaser, he explains: “What his trip will be over fences, I don’t know. He’s an ex-bumper horse so he could be open to go up in trip, but he has pace so he’s not pigeon-hold into going one department. He has a lot of ability and he’s an exciting one to have.”

I won't go trawling through the internet but as a bumper horse I remember them saying he was quick 'as well'

and everyone must remember Patrick AND Willie saying how he surprised them and he made himself a Supreme contender based on his 9L victory over Mengli Khan.

Mullins has a ridiculously good JLT record, with Sir Des Champs, (Djakadam Faller), then Vautour (had run in the Supreme), Black Hercules and Yorkhill.

Fair to say there isn't a pattern in terms of which novice hurdle any of them went for as all 3 are represented but Getabird could well become a standout in this race from quite a way out.

10/1 (4/1 in places) - Samcro - Not coming here
12/1 - Black Op - A fair price for a fair fav but may go up in trip?
12/1 - Getabird (not quoted by PP or BFSB)
16/1 - Lostintranslation
16/1 - Next Destination - The Ballymore at Cheltenham did nothing if not PROVE he should have run over further (RSA surely!)
16/1 - Summerville Boy - Hurdling
16/1 - Faugheen -
16/1 - Messire Des Obeaux
20/1 - bar


Who is the Mullins runner going to be? 12/1 Getabird isn't something I can back now, but he could easily end up a 6/4 fav here

[taylorch1990]

I think the JLT looks the most open of the novice chases as its hard to nail many down that will run in this. I've already backed Vinndication and another I like at a decent price is Diese Des Biefes. I can only see him priced up at 33-1 with 365 but Henderson has said he's going chasing and his handicap form from last season is Rock solid.

[ComplyOrDie]

Who is the Mullins runner going to be? 12/1 Getabird isn't something I can back now, but he could easily end up a 6/4 fav here

Sorry to be boring, but not many other suggestions coming through, so personally I think Voix Du Reve will be the Mullins horse in this, as I have said previously.

I know he's not quite as 'sexy' as the others mentioned but ultimately could come on a bundle for going over fences and certainly looked like he took to them as well as anything on his chase debut.

He's not devoid of some level of Chletenham form and I am happy to forgive his run at this years festival as quite frankly his whole campaign was a mess, but that previous festival form when he would have at least pushed Diego Du Charmil close if not beat him, before falling, is not form to take lightly.

He'll certainly be overpriced currently and won't be 25/1 come the day of the festival should he make it.

There is also some confidence behind the breeding side of it too to suggest chasing will be a positive step for him, the sire, Voix Du Nord, also sired Vroum Vroum Mag (unbeaten over fences), Taquin Du Seuil (won this race as a novice chaser), Vibrato Valtat (Quirky, but made a fair novice chaser, winning some weakish Grade 1 & 2 races, albeit not at the festival) & Vaniteux (another who was a fairly consistent novice chaser, winning and placing in Graded races, as well as looking like finishing 2nd to Douvan in the Arkle at the festival before falling). Unfortunately there is not a whole heap on the Dams side to be as confident about, and obviously it goes without saying that Voix Du Nord has also had his fair share of poor progeny too, however Voix Du Reve has shown better form over hurdles than the majority of them already so I have no doubt he has a little class about him and it will show through over fences.

[ComplyOrDie]

I may be barking up the wrong tree, it happens a LOT, but I asked a friend to request Cracking Smart & Voix Du Reve be added to their sportsbook markets for this race, but they said they were unable to offer a price at this moment in time, yet were happy enough to add Cracking Smart to the exchange market for the race

No one else find this strange?

[charlie]

Patrick, Willie and Ruby have all at different stages asaid Getabird has speed and stamina. Is this the OBVIOUS race?

Ruby:
Referring to the strapping Getabird, a horse bred to be a chaser, he explains: “What his trip will be over fences, I don’t know. He’s an ex-bumper horse so he could be open to go up in trip, but he has pace so he’s not pigeon-hold into going one department. He has a lot of ability and he’s an exciting one to have.”

I won't go trawling through the internet but as a bumper horse I remember them saying he was quick 'as well'

and everyone must remember Patrick AND Willie saying how he surprised them and he made himself a Supreme contender based on his 9L victory over Mengli Khan.

Mullins has a ridiculously good JLT record, with Sir Des Champs, (Djakadam Faller), then Vautour (had run in the Supreme), Black Hercules and Yorkhill.

Fair to say there isn't a pattern in terms of which novice hurdle any of them went for as all 3 are represented but Getabird could well become a standout in this race from quite a way out.

10/1 (4/1 in places) - Samcro - Not coming here
12/1 - Black Op - A fair price for a fair fav but may go up in trip?
12/1 - Getabird (not quoted by PP or BFSB)
16/1 - Lostintranslation
16/1 - Next Destination - The Ballymore at Cheltenham did nothing if not PROVE he should have run over further (RSA surely!)
16/1 - Summerville Boy - Hurdling
16/1 - Faugheen -
16/1 - Messire Des Obeaux
20/1 - bar


Who is the Mullins runner going to be? 12/1 Getabird isn't something I can back now, but he could easily end up a 6/4 fav here

If Bapaume goes chasing (which I believe is speculative at this stage) then 20/1 would interest me.

[ComplyOrDie]

If Bapaume goes chasing (which I believe is speculative at this stage) then 20/1 would interest me.

Could be a cracking shout, completely forgot about Bapaume (somehow)!

[Scooby91]

Could be a cracking shout, completely forgot about Bapaume (somehow)!

Stays over hurdles. 3m.. I can't really knock the decision as there's huge pots at auteuil for him again.