J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Quevega]

Keep banging the drum COD, i'm almost convinced to have a go NRNB. The breeding is good for this distance and, as you say, his jumping should improve for the extra 4 furlongs. There are worse 16-1 (NRNB) shots out there

Not aimed at you specifically Joleg, but in general.

Anyone care to explain why the horse's jumping will improve by running a 2m 4f race as opposed to a 2m race. ??
And exactly how much difference in speed will they be going ??

answers on a postcard please

[Joleg]

Not aimed at you specifically Joleg, but in general.

Anyone care to explain why the horse's jumping will improve by running a 2m 4f race as opposed to a 2m race. ??
And exactly how much difference in speed will they be going ??

answers on a postcard please

Q, it's fairly clear that VDR's jumping isn't fluid at 2m, i just think that at the slightly slower pace it may be what is needed. Take your point about the difference in pace but every little helps.

Like i said there are definitely worse 16-1 shots out there. i think COD has put forward a compelling argument. Haven't pressed the button myself yet but certainly, given the likelihood of most horses at the top end of the market not running, is worthy of consideration

[Scooby91]

No financial interest so far for me in this race but for me if top of the game rocks up here instead of the RSA then surely he wins
Not far beaten when left at the start by defi earlier this season and not sure if he fully got the 3 miles last time out
Looks like a far easier race on paper than taking on delta work, big name santini and possibly the mare of Warrens as well

He 100% goes RSA

[ComplyOrDie]

Not aimed at you specifically Joleg, but in general.

Anyone care to explain why the horse's jumping will improve by running a 2m 4f race as opposed to a 2m race. ??
And exactly how much difference in speed will they be going ??

answers on a postcard please

Honestly, no I can't, but then can we see a reason why it won't?

I said the same of DDS before his Exeter run, that one worked out alright.

I struggle to understand why a horse like VDR can't or won't in some people's eyes, improve for a step up in trip but are happy to have Le Richebourg for the Arkle who could only beat him by a few lengths. The price difference is acceptable in form but it can't be great form is he's only beating VDR, who has no hope anywhere

[ComplyOrDie]

He 100% goes RSA

One down, many more to go.

[Quevega]

Joleg and COD

I'm not crabbing VDR chances just the logic with the jumping and pace etc.

FYI
average speed footpad in arkle = 29.75mph
average speed Shattered Love in JLT = 28.94mph

That 0.81 mph difference ain't going to matter is it, but a not fluid jumper has to jump more fences over the 2m 4f trip ??

[Kevloaf]

How many strides is that per second please big fella thanks

[Quevega]

How many strides is that per second please big fella thanks

that's beyond my threshold, but average speed is an easy one.

Kind of demonstrates why trips are not as important as the efficient use of energy, and pace judgement in the conditions, and when horses are closely matched how small things can make the difference.

[The King Pimm]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

[Kevloaf]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

I'd worry that he's not connections first choice. I feel like they looked at the race and decoded Master Dino from Frame was their best chance, which means the UK contingent weren't up to scratch in terms of the win.

He's a progressive looking type and I won'the knock a 25/1 poke but he's probably got no realistic win hope

[Quevega]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

I backed him a few weeks back at 33s each way with sky, but I'm not expecting a winner. Probably just a bit short.

[thorne365]

that's beyond my threshold, but average speed is an easy one.

Kind of demonstrates why trips are not as important as the efficient use of energy, and pace judgement in the conditions, and when horses are closely matched how small things can make the difference.

Are those average speeds just distance / time? I agree with efficiency being paramount but average speed (esp if for the whole race) on its own doesnt tell us that at all.

[Scooby91]

Dalila de seuil would be intersting here if she dosent follow the mares program. There's mares races either side. So frought with danger

[Quevega]

Are those average speeds just distance / time? I agree with efficiency being paramount but average speed (esp if for the whole race) on its own doesnt tell us that at all.

Might need to expand on that
I don’t follow

[darlojim]

Am i on my own in thinking LiT can reverse form with DDS? He wasnt the most fluent at the last 2 LTO and was gaining slowly on DDS up the hill, if he can put in a clear round like he did at cheltenham first time round the stiff finish will get his head back in front im sure of it.