J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd have him over DDS any day. On bare form he has a few lengths to find with Hardline but he travelled so powerfully and won as he liked. Hardline is my bet in the race but Winter Escape is a big threat if he runs.

FWIW Getabird was travelling so powerfully before his mistake, as we've discussed previously. I presume the only thing keeping you from backing him is the 'left handed' issue?

I would have liked Winter Escape to have been asked more questions, in a better race I mean. I'd have Hardline over Winter Escape, which means I'd also have Getabird/VDR, plus from the UK DDS also, which would bring Lostintranslation into it as well, what I am trying to say is I'd have plenty before WE, so the each way value does not appeal either.

[boopa]

He hung right and doesn't have an entry at Leopardstown. Doubt he'll run at Cheltenham.

[Can't Catch Me]

I actually don't think Winter Escape is much value now myself. On bare form and on a line through Jetz he still has lengths to find with both Hardline & Getabird, he's won 2 Grade 3's, but not very competitive ones IMO.

Defi Du Seuil will be JP's number one in the race, I'm sure of that.

I've added Winter Escape at 16/1. Interested in why you think he has lengths to find with Hardline CoD? Winter Escape was giving the horse 7lbs and beat him as far as he liked to my eyes. Hardline only beat him by further because he was in a race with Getabird... had WE had company I think he could have done much more and extended the gap significantly. So I think its hard to be sure which of these two has the better form.

A Plus Tard was very well fancied and hes beaten him easily enough giving him weight, and I think he's being underestimated a little.

I think WE has the hallmarks of a real improver... and I think its quite a big positive he's been to Cheltenham before and run a very respectable 5th in the County.

[boopa]

I've added Winter Escape at 16/1. Interested in why you think he has lengths to find with Hardline CoD? Winter Escape was giving the horse 7lbs and beat him as far as he liked to my eyes. Hardline only beat him by further because he was in a race with Getabird... had WE had company I think he could have done much more and extended the gap significantly. So I think its hard to be sure which of these two has the better form.

A Plus Trad was very well fancied and hes beaten him easily enough, and I think he's being underestimated a little.

I think WE has the hallmarks of a real improver... and I think its quite a big positive he's been to Cheltenham before and run a very respectable 5th in the County.

Agree with all that. The worry is they have DDS for this.

[Can't Catch Me]

Agree with all that. The worry is they have DDS for this.

Not sure that's a big worry though boopa? They have Le Richebourg for the Arkle so will almost certainly have to run two against each other in one of those two races and JP certainly isnt averse to doing it.

Just don't see where else WE could go if it isn't here?

[ComplyOrDie]

I've added Winter Escape at 16/1. Interested in why you think he has lengths to find with Hardline CoD? Winter Escape was giving the horse 7lbs and beat him as far as he liked to my eyes. Hardline only beat him by further because he was in a race with Getabird... had WE had company I think he could have done much more and extended the gap significantly. So I think its hard to be sure which of these two has the better form.

A Plus Tard was very well fancied and hes beaten him easily enough giving him weight, and I think he's being underestimated a little.

I think WE has the hallmarks of a real improver... and I think its quite a big positive he's been to Cheltenham before and run a very respectable 5th in the County.

I've just re-watched the replay and again I struggle to get excited by him, in fact I have taken a worse view now, as I never realised how awkward/clumsy he sometimes looks over his fences, and yes, I know he's a novice, but that was his 4th race over the larger obstacles, things like jumping, if I were to be looking at him as a solid prospect, would need to be better than that. A bit like DDS in the Arkle (if he doesn't come here, which he should), I suspect he'll get left behind, there are smaller margins for error at the festival for me.

A Plus Tard may have been 'well fancied' but being 'well fancied' doesn't lead to good form.

Given his 4 runs already you'd have to question how much more improvement is likely to come, and will he even turn up @ the festival (any quotes after the race)?

The above is only my opinion of course, you guys may be right, but it's a game of opinions

[Can't Catch Me]

Certainly is CoD. Not disagreeing either, just interested to hear your thoughts.

I haven't seen any confirmed plans for the Festival, but hes been before, and he's far and away the trainers best horse, so you'd have to think he will be desperate to have a runner while he has the chance. He can't have had many!

[boopa]

Not as good a jumper as Hardline but his jumping is fine didn't make one mistake. I would agree that he might not run at Cheltenham.

Interesting you say he's exposed and criticise jumping yet you like VDR. VDR has been on the go since July and his jumping is worse than WE.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not as good a jumper as Hardline but his jumping is fine didn't make one mistake. I would agree that he might not run at Cheltenham.

Interesting you say he's exposed and criticise jumping yet you like VDR. VDR has been on the go since July and his jumping is worse than WE.

Where did I say he was 'exposed'? Putting words in my mouth. I said "you'd have to question how much more improvement is likely to come" that's completely different, I'm not saying he can't improve further, just posing the question.

FWIW I also think the same about VDR, but he is now on a break, with a view, as far as I am aware to come back a fresher horse for the festivals.

[boopa]

If you look at the replay at 1:51 he is squeezed out and loses a few lengths. I think he's thriving and fully deserves his rating.

[Can't Catch Me]

I do agree with CoD about his jumping. Not the most natural... but does appear very safe.

[boopa]

I know it's a cliche but what price would he be if he was trained by one of the big guns?

[Kevloaf]

I know it's a cliche but what price would he be if he was trained by one of the big guns?

I'm not sure, but he was fairly high profile before the switch so he's not under the radar. Fav for the Greatwood at one stage

[Kevloaf]

Barry on DDS
Mark Walsh Winter Escape

I think it's good news for Le Richebourg in the Arkle

[boopa]

Timeform's Top-Rated Novice Chasers (updated 13/01/2019)

156p - WINTER ESCAPE
155 - MASTER DINO
154 - DYNAMITE DOLLARS
153p - DELTA WORK
153p - SANTINI
152p - DEFI DU SEUIL
152p - TOPOFTHEGAME
152 - KNOCKNANUSS
151p - LE RICHEBOURG
151 - LALOR