J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone else thing Voix de reve was in the process of running a big race before he came down? Probably wouldn’t of won but I imagine he may of done second beaten approx 6L. Which in the context of this race might be half decent form?

Been banging the VDR drum (and my head against a brick wall) for some time now.

He's top of my list. He'll be better for a step up in trip, my worry now is how he comes out of that fall tbh.

I have plenty on him now, including 'any race', so hoping for good news for him some point soon.

[cwright23]

How about the run of kaiser black? Where does he go?

[Outlaw]

How about the run of kaiser black? Where does he go?

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2019/February/04/aintree-and-punchestown-possible-options-for-kaiser-black

[taylorch1990]

Haven't really got this race covered was really keen on Vinndication, but cashed out after the weekend for a small profit. Just backed 2 at big prices Champagne Classic for reasons already mentioned, and the other is Robin Des Foret. Only entered in this of the novice chases. Fell lto when still travelling well and the time before was beaten 7 lengths by Le Richebourg but giving him 6 pounds, 40-1 could be value in a race where outside the top 2 there's not much depth to it yet.

[Kevloaf]

Been banging the VDR drum (and my head against a brick wall) for some time now.

He's top of my list. He'll be better for a step up in trip, my worry now is how he comes out of that fall tbh.

I have plenty on him now, including 'any race', so hoping for good news for him some point soon.

What is it that you're seeing that the bookies aren't CoD? He's available at biggest price 25/1 with PP, who tend to get the Mullins target right and it doesn't look promising? (I'm hoping to be convinced but I'm struggling...even at the price)

As a fairly casual observer in this thread, regarding Voix Du Reve, do you genuinely believe he looks good enough to win a JLT? If so, where is that form? I certainly don't see it in the book yet, certainty not entitling them to be much shorter than he is?

"He'll be better for a step up in trip" - will he? That may be proved true in the fullness of time, but it's not really backed up is it yet?

2miles: 2F2/0/03113F (First of the wins is over 2m2f - the run against Mind's Eye - who looks a low 140's horse - maybe for Close Brothers? but whipped by Le Richebourg/Delta Work when they met 24L or more)

2.5 miles: 001/1 (the wins are against a 132 then 133 rated hurdler at odds on)

3 miles: 89

So I see he's got the two wins over that middle trip, and a rubbish record over 3m, but at 8/11 and 1/4 against inferior horses it's not that impressive.

If I'm right so far, everything seems to cling onto this beating of Hardline over 2miles?

Whether you fancy Hardline or not, it's very, very, very hard to argue he'd be best suited to a good ground 2 miles, based on the more rounded look we can now have at his form? Therefore, the VDR victory over him, doesn't seem as impressive as it might have done, with no guarantee he'll improve for a step up, because his form is much better at 2m, and coming off the back of a fall.... I can see why you feel you're banging your head off a wall

[TigerRolllllll]

What is it that you're seeing that the bookies aren't CoD? He's available at biggest price 25/1 with PP, who tend to get the Mullins target right and it doesn't look promising? (I'm hoping to be convinced but I'm struggling...even at the price)

As a fairly casual observer in this thread, regarding Voix Du Reve, do you genuinely believe he looks good enough to win a JLT? If so, where is that form? I certainly don't see it in the book yet, certainty not entitling them to be much shorter than he is?

"He'll be better for a step up in trip" - will he? That may be proved true in the fullness of time, but it's not really backed up is it yet?

2miles: 2F2/0/03113F (First of the wins is over 2m2f - the run against Mind's Eye - who looks a low 140's horse - maybe for Close Brothers? but whipped by Le Richebourg/Delta Work when they met 24L or more)

2.5 miles: 001/1 (the wins are against a 132 then 133 rated hurdler at odds on)

3 miles: 89

So I see he's got the two wins over that middle trip, and a rubbish record over 3m, but at 8/11 and 1/4 against inferior horses it's not that impressive.

If I'm right so far, everything seems to cling onto this beating of Hardline over 2miles?

Whether you fancy Hardline or not, it's very, very, very hard to argue he'd be best suited to a good ground 2 miles, based on the more rounded look we can now have at his form? Therefore, the VDR victory over him, doesn't seem as impressive as it might have done, with no guarantee he'll improve for a step up, because his form is much better at 2m, and coming off the back of a fall.... I can see why you feel you're banging your head off a wall

Agree totally and worry with VDR is festival form in past

[Scooby91]

Agree totally and worry with VDR is festival form in past

I think he's in no way good enough to win this. But in regards to fest form he'd have won, or lost in a photo in the fred winter should himself and campeador have jumped the last.

[doctorwu]

VDR
Never a good thing to go to a championship race off the back of a fall. Cant have him for this.

[bobbyvalentino]

Sorry CoD - i had been hopeful he’d make up a graded performer early in the season but if you read Mullins quotes now it’s quite clear he’s just making up the numbers

[ComplyOrDie]

What is it that you're seeing that the bookies aren't CoD? He's available at biggest price 25/1 with PP, who tend to get the Mullins target right and it doesn't look promising? (I'm hoping to be convinced but I'm struggling...even at the price)

As a fairly casual observer in this thread, regarding Voix Du Reve, do you genuinely believe he looks good enough to win a JLT? If so, where is that form? I certainly don't see it in the book yet, certainty not entitling them to be much shorter than he is?

"He'll be better for a step up in trip" - will he? That may be proved true in the fullness of time, but it's not really backed up is it yet?

2miles: 2F2/0/03113F (First of the wins is over 2m2f - the run against Mind's Eye - who looks a low 140's horse - maybe for Close Brothers? but whipped by Le Richebourg/Delta Work when they met 24L or more)

2.5 miles: 001/1 (the wins are against a 132 then 133 rated hurdler at odds on)

3 miles: 89

So I see he's got the two wins over that middle trip, and a rubbish record over 3m, but at 8/11 and 1/4 against inferior horses it's not that impressive.

If I'm right so far, everything seems to cling onto this beating of Hardline over 2miles?

Whether you fancy Hardline or not, it's very, very, very hard to argue he'd be best suited to a good ground 2 miles, based on the more rounded look we can now have at his form? Therefore, the VDR victory over him, doesn't seem as impressive as it might have done, with no guarantee he'll improve for a step up, because his form is much better at 2m, and coming off the back of a fall.... I can see why you feel you're banging your head off a wall

I'm not bothered what the bookies are seeing, if I was I'd be backing every favourite as they'd be right, eh?

With regards to PP/Betfair I was keen to follow their movements this season but I've not been as convinced for the past couple of months that they have been pricing up with knowledge of targets known.

VDR looks exposed as a 2 miler, and many on here have said, and are correct, that he just doesn't jump well enough over 2m. His beating of Hardline is now some bonus form, he was just 4 3/4 lengths (you think that means 'whipped' ) behind Le Richebourg, the festivals current Arkle favourite, over Christmas, and very likely would have been the same distance again over the weekend, what does that say about LR if VDR is just not good enough, surely LR should be beating him further? Also VDR's jumping was not too clever in either of them races and obviously cost him in the latter of them 2, and I think the step up in trip will bring out significant improvement in that department, and IMO has to put him in the reckoning in a wide open market, like this race is.

On the market, look down the list on Oddschecker and tell me how many of the top, say, 15 horses are actually coming here? I make it 3 or 4, possibly 5, and with WPM already having CE for the Arkle, there is no reason for VDR to run in that having already been beat by Le Richebourg twice (albeit fell once). So you're potentially looking @ 25/1 for the 5th or 6th horse in the betting?

I honestly wouldn't take his hurdles form from last season literally, he looked weak, they pissed around with distance and mostly shoved claimers on his back, the small sample of the season before looks better form to consider. He also looks much a better chaser than a hurdler.

As for someone mentioning his Cheltenham form, as I said about last season, you can take it as you will, but I think the whole campaign was revolved around strengthening him up ready to go chasing. The races he undertook made no sense, starting over 3m, then 2m 5f, then 2m, before returning to 2m 4f, it was a mess, probably by design. His other Cheltenham run (Fred Winter 2016), as pointed out by Scooby, could have gone either way as he fell, alongside Campeador, when mounting a strong challenge, to worry about him running at the course would be a bit naive IMO.

Thought I'd also chuck in that I was questioned and jokingly laughed at when I mentioned backing Defi Du Seuil at 50/1 for this on the ante post bets thread (I think), before his run @ Exeter, that doesn't look so bad now....albeit like an absolute tit I forgot to put the bet on that day , but words don't lie so it was there and still is there for all to see either way, and no after timing!

I am not trying to convince any one to back him, I've convinced myself

To summarize:

Positives:

Expected improvement for step up in trip / Breeding also suggests this.

Grade 2 winning chaser on just his 2nd start.

Placed in Grade 1 chase.

Potential lack of opposition? And 25/1 still, brings it being a nice place bet too.

Connections (trainer/jockey/owner) combo in this race.


Negatives:

Jumping (on what we've seen so far, but expecting better over further).

Coming to the festival on the back of a fall (probably the most concerning thing for me).

PP/Betfair are weak?!?


Ultimately, am I as confident as I was after his first 2 runs over fences? Probably not, but he has since been in stronger races than them 2 and was by no means 'whipped', or looking like being 'whipped' in the last one, losing yes, but not by a such a great margin that it would have me worrying. If LR is the crack 2 miler in Ireland over fences this season then he should be hammering an average Voix Du Reve, but as I like LR I am happy to have VDR up there also, and even more so when up in trip, where he should be.

[Kevloaf]

Sorry it isn't clear, I mean Mind's Eye was whipped by Le Richbourg / Delta Work, but is closer to VDR ....

He is definitely more exposed at 2 miles, but all his best form is at 2 miles?

I agree with you on the course, that'd hold no issues.


and fair enough, if they do all come out he's probably still a 16/1 shot on the day

[ComplyOrDie]

Sorry it isn't clear, I mean Mind's Eye was whipped by Le Richbourg / Delta Work, but is closer to VDR ....

He is definitely more exposed at 2 miles, but all his best form is at 2 miles?

I agree with you on the course, that'd hold no issues.


and fair enough, if they do all come out he's probably still a 16/1 shot on the day

TBF, you'd have to take the 16's NRNB now after the fall also, so given that maybe not so appealing to some, though with the lack of opposition likely will still be shorter on the day if making it.

His career distance form is as follows:

2m - 2m 2f: 11 runs, 3 wins, 27.27% win rate

2m 3f - 2m 5f: 4 runs, 2 win, 50% win rate

2m 6f+: 2 runs, 2 losses, 0% win rate

He falls in that intermediate bracket for me, and I like his breeding for the distance too, half brother to Defi Du Seuil, the current favourite for the race, as well as previous winner Taquin Du Seuil, and last years 4th, Kemboy!

Mind's Eye was VDR's chase debut, I wouldn't even consider that form myself. I dispel most maiden hurdles and beginners chases myself, it was a starting point only.

[Kevloaf]

Those 2 wins though at intermediate must be two of the worst races he's contensted? He'd beat 133 and 132 rated horses over 2miles and 3 miles I'd imagine?


The point on breeding is fair enough though

[ComplyOrDie]

Those 2 wins though at intermediate must be two of the worst races he's contensted? He'd beat 133 and 132 rated horses over 2miles and 3 miles I'd imagine?


The point on breeding is fair enough though

Can't and won't try and dispute that Kev, they were poor, which is probably why he won them by a combined total of 38 lengths. The other 2 he ran is were higher profile races, one being the Coral Cup and the other being a 59k handicap at the Punchestown festival.

He's already proven to be a better chaser, form lines with LR would indicate that IMO. Time will tell, it's just such an open race though, and it's not as if connections don't have a live chance in this race normally.

[Joleg]

Can't and won't try and dispute that Kev, they were poor, which is probably why he won them by a combined total of 38 lengths. The other 2 he ran is were higher profile races, one being the Coral Cup and the other being a 59k handicap at the Punchestown festival.

He's already proven to be a better chaser, form lines with LR would indicate that IMO. Time will tell, it's just such an open race though, and it's not as if connections don't have a live chance in this race normally.

Keep banging the drum COD, i'm almost convinced to have a go NRNB. The breeding is good for this distance and, as you say, his jumping should improve for the extra 4 furlongs. There are worse 16-1 (NRNB) shots out there