J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Faugheen_Machine]

Less than 3 months since:
1. Shattered Love
2. Terrefort
3. Benatar
4. Kemboy

Check out where they were a year ago and consider what sort of price you want about your current fancy.

Good point Archie - they wouldn't be on the radar, neither would Black Hercules from a couple of seasons ago. On the flip side of that, Yorkhill and Vautour are two recent winners of the JLT that were at the head of the market from an early stage.

Like many on here, I'll be making best use of the any race markets rather than trying to pick a novice to win over intermediate distances at this stage.

[Kevloaf]

Less than 3 months since:
1. Shattered Love
2. Terrefort
3. Benatar
4. Kemboy

Check out where they were a year ago and consider what sort of price you want about your current fancy.

You don't get paid out on 4th?
Why have you included 4th

Tis a good point though ... I am probably the canary down the mine for a few people on here, so if I am not having a bet yet, then maybe it isn't safe

any news on Kemboy archie? All safe and sound out to grass? (Where does he go to grass?)

[archie]

You don't get paid out on 4th?
Why have you included 4th

Tis a good point though ... I am probably the canary down the mine for a few people on here, so if I am not having a bet yet, then maybe it isn't safe

any news on Kemboy archie? All safe and sound out to grass? (Where does he go to grass?)

4th does get you into the winners enclosure though. I did think of adding '5. Finians Oscar' given he was one of the big fancies a year ago.
I actually included Kemboy because, when I bought into him in September (?), he was being aimed at the stayers hurdle. Just an example of how difficult it is to predict a Festival target this far out and further backing for the 'any race' punters.
Kemboy is, as far as I know, safely on his hols. Willie has a separate facility although some owners like to take their horses home for the summer.

[BigChaang]

4th does get you into the winners enclosure though. I did think of adding '5. Finians Oscar' given he was one of the big fancies a year ago.
I actually included Kemboy because, when I bought into him in September (?), he was being aimed at the stayers hurdle. Just an example of how difficult it is to predict a Festival target this far out and further backing for the 'any race' punters.
Kemboy is, as far as I know, safely on his hols. Willie has a separate facility although some owners like to take their horses home for the summer.

Just out of Curiosity Archie , when was the decision made to go J.L.T, ?.

[archie]

Just out of Curiosity Archie , when was the decision made to go J.L.T, ?.

I actually bought in in October, BC, and looking back through the monthly Supreme newsletters he's still set for hurdles at the start of October but switched to chasing at the start of November. Essentially, if they come back in at the end of July it will be 10 weeks or so before they're in fast work. I think that Patrick schooled him at that time and was impressed and the rest is history.

As far as the actual race is concerned, he was left in the Arkle, JLT and RSA at the 6 day stage but he would have been stable second or third choice in any of them and unless something happened to the likes of Footpad or Al Boum Photo he was likely to go for the JLT from about 6 weeks out.

[BigChaang]

Thanks Archie , Appreciate that , So would the Stable be more likely to nominate the race or the Owner ? , ( gigginstown aside !)

[archie]

You don't buy a dog and bark yourself. 'In Willie we trust'.

[BigChaang]

" Woof Woof " - Quite right .!

[SeanRock]

https://twitter.com/bettrends/status/1030116957503344642?s=20

Update from Amy Murphy on Kalasnikov via Paul Ferguson’s JTF

For what it’s worth Paul thinks he’ll be going down the Arkle route, however I do remember Amy mentioning a step up in trip was possible after the Supreme 2nd so unless he got some info from the stable it’s possibly just his opinion.

[Istabraq]

I think a possible meeting with Samcro will be enough to focus their minds on the Arkle.....

[SeanRock]

I think a possible meeting with Samcro will be enough to focus their minds on the Arkle.....

Agreed Ista, he also wasn’t exactly crying out for an extra few furlongs the Supreme even on the apparent unsuitable ground imo.

[Kevloaf]

I think a possible meeting with Samcro will be enough to focus their minds on the Arkle.....

A possible meeting with Samcro could send them JLT though at this stage .... still too early?

Agreed Ista, he also wasn’t exactly crying out for an extra few furlongs the Supreme even on the apparent unsuitable ground imo.

Kalashnikov is unexposed at further... he isn't the best 2 miler around over hurdles and to win an Arkle on good ground he'd need to imporve a lot to be a major player in an Arkle. Albeit Amy Murphy thinks he'll be better on better ground, he hasn't shown the form on it yet.

They may start him with dreams of an Arkle but he's more likely to win a JLT for me despite not seeing him at the trip yet.

It is interesting Amy Murphy said she had a split second thought about a CH campaign.... but my gut tells me he'll be found wanting at 2m as a chaser too.

[Kevloaf]

Just checked the price..... 14/1 Arkle.

Absolutely no way I'd consider that price now.

Some bookies have him 12/1 and 14/1 for the JLT but 25s are available... he's just not shown any form worthy of being that short in an Arkle

His best piece of form is still the Betfair Hurdle? - I'm not a strong trends guy but I do like looking at previous winners of races and their profiles for interest (when it suits...) but winning a Betfair Hurdle is not a stepping stone to becoming a 2 mile chaser.... Ballyandy, Agrapart, Splash of Ginge, My Tent Or Yours, Zarkander, Get Me Out Of Here... 14/1 Arkle? No thanks.

[billymag]

Arkle does look wide open as it stands unless its as simple as SAMCRO

[ComplyOrDie]

Not even Samcro that would bother me, it would be Laurina, she's the one!