J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[SeanRock]

Kim’s getting himself tied up in his own yarns! Still giving himself wiggle room not committing the horse 100% yet...

Regardless that settles where my Skybet score goes. Hasn’t much to find on the front two in the market. He never traveled or jumped a yard at Sandown so I’ll chance him against them again!

[Eggs]

...good news about Vinndication, back in the game @ 16-1. Happy with that & Kildisart @ 33-1. Now it’s fingers crossed for this race.

[charlie]

Buzzing about the Vinndication news! 20/1 in this and any race. Back from the death!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Kim’s getting himself tied up in his own yarns! Still giving himself wiggle room not committing the horse 100% yet...

Regardless that settles where my Skybet score goes. Hasn’t much to find on the front two in the market. He never traveled or jumped a yard at Sandown so I’ll chance him against them again!

Thanks for the reminder Sean, is the only race I haven't used them

[kinloch brae]

I am on Vinndication but I don't hold out much hope. He never looked likely at Sandown and was darting out to his right at the fences. Even if he has the required ability the jumping issues could finish him at Cheltenham. I would expect Bass to try and smuggle him up the inside of other horses. At least I think they have got the trip right. Many said he wanted three miles after Sandown but he wasn't closing the front two down at the finish.

[Kevloaf]

I am on Vinndication but I don't hold out much hope. He never looked likely at Sandown and was darting out to his right at the fences. Even if he has the required ability the jumping issues could finish him at Cheltenham. I would expect Bass to try and smuggle him up the inside of other horses. At least I think they have got the trip right. Many said he wanted three miles after Sandown but he wasn't closing the front two down at the finish.

I hope Bass doesn't do that, I'd much prefer to see him making it a stamina test and if the reports are right (that his jumping was impressive today) and he does get out there and lead, he's a very tough horse to pass...


If they take a lead and smother him I don't think he'll be winning.

[Quevega]

For an industry that relies on integrity.
Bailey should be fined or punished.
Most yards have links to bookmakers through sponsorship these days and for an experienced trainer to categorically rule out a horse and then change his mind on the morning of the declarations.

Stinks to high heaven.

There was absolutely no need to be so categorical in the first place, if it was still a possibility he'd run him.

A C**t where I come from.

BTW.
Not lost money on it, and don't fancy it either.

[Gilly]

Gutted,

I cashed out this Patent a month or 2 ago for a decent profit but returns were 7k:
Angels Breath 25/1
Vindication 33/1
Topofthegame 14/1

[SamuelP]

Wouldn't at all be surprised if on inspection of the declarations today Bailey has changed his mind again and he's not there. Imagine how long it takes him to do his shopping...I like the look of that bread, no it's too thick put it back, actually I'll add it to my trolley, can decide later at the til, f**k it I'll eat it now

[Kevloaf]

For an industry that relies on integrity.
Bailey should be fined or punished.
Most yards have links to bookmakers through sponsorship these days and for an experienced trainer to categorically rule out a horse and then change his mind on the morning of the declarations.

Stinks to high heaven.

There was absolutely no need to be so categorical in the first place, if it was still a possibility he'd run him.

A C**t where I come from.

BTW.
Not lost money on it, and don't fancy it either.

Yeah I agree Q.

There was absolutely no need to be so categorical in the first place, if it was still a possibility he'd run him.

Spot on for all trainers, there is absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind... but if you rule something out, then it's out.... he could so easily have just said "but you never know" and that's it. No confusion.

[charlie]

For an industry that relies on integrity.
Bailey should be fined or punished.
Most yards have links to bookmakers through sponsorship these days and for an experienced trainer to categorically rule out a horse and then change his mind on the morning of the declarations.

Stinks to high heaven.

There was absolutely no need to be so categorical in the first place, if it was still a possibility he'd run him.

A C**t where I come from.

BTW.
Not lost money on it, and don't fancy it either.

If fines or punishments were in place then trainers would inevitably keep horses in that are less likely to run and punters would be stung later on and be equally furious, so in short, it wouldn't work.

Personally, I think you are over reacting. Vinndication is a horse, not a machine, and its not Germany circa 1939 - Kim Bailey is allowed to change his mind. Should he have been so definite, no. Could he have handled the situation better, yes of course. But ultimately, he has made a decision he is allowed to make

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Gutted,

I cashed out this Patent a month or 2 ago for a decent profit but returns were 7k:
Angels Breath 25/1
Vindication 33/1
Topofthegame 14/1

Owch, I delete them from my spreadsheet when I cash out in part for this reason. That said you remind I had a good few with AB at 25 and Vinndication at 33 on the morning of the day they both ran earlier in the season. As Kev said I'm pretty good at making peace with this sort of thing as the info had changed at the time of the decision. Only one I regret it cashing out AB so quickly after he got beat, but good lesson learned for next season

[Quevega]

If fines or punishments were in place then trainers would inevitably keep horses in that are less likely to run and punters would be stung later on and be equally furious, so in short, it wouldn't work.

Personally, I think you are over reacting. Vinndication is a horse, not a machine, and its not Germany circa 1939 - Kim Bailey is allowed to change his mind. Should he have been so definite, no. Could he have handled the situation better, yes of course. But ultimately, he has made a decision he is allowed to make

With respect, that's complete Rubbish Charlie. Read it back and you'll agree.

The whole industry relies on the betting integrity.

He could have simply said that the horse is a major doubt but couldn't completely rule it out.

You're basically saying he can say on the Tuesday.

The horse will not be running at the cheltenham festival.

Then him and his mates and anyone in the know can get on at fancy prices.

Then change his mind the next day once bets are placed.

Now I'm not for one minute saying that's happened in this case, but it leaves doubt. Which is what he should have left us with in the first place.

Are you saying that a jockey shouldn't be punished for dropping his hands ?
Because they are also entitled to do what they want also.
As it's not Germany circa 1939

[robith]

If fines or punishments were in place then trainers would inevitably keep horses in that are less likely to run and punters would be stung later on and be equally furious, so in short, it wouldn't work.

Personally, I think you are over reacting. Vinndication is a horse, not a machine, and its not Germany circa 1939 - Kim Bailey is allowed to change his mind. Should he have been so definite, no. Could he have handled the situation better, yes of course. But ultimately, he has made a decision he is allowed to make

That Godwinned quickly!

[charlie]

With respect, that's complete Rubbish Charlie. Read it back and you'll agree.

The whole industry relies on the betting integrity.

He could have simply said that the horse is a major doubt but couldn't completely rule it out.

You're basically saying he can say on the Tuesday.

The horse will not be running at the cheltenham festival.

Then him and his mates and anyone in the know can get on at fancy prices.

Then change his mind the next day once bets are placed.

Now I'm not for one minute saying that's happened in this case, but it leaves doubt. Which is what he should have left us with in the first place.

Are you saying that a jockey shouldn't be punished for dropping his hands ?
Because they are also entitled to do what they want also.
As it's not Germany circa 1939

Of course the industry relies on betting integrity and yes, theoretically Kim could have got on at fancy prices, but as you rightly point out, it’s highly unlikely this was the case. This scenario requires context and not a rush to punish/fine a man that’s committed more to the game than you or I will in 10 lifetimes.

You have no proof of wrongdoing and if trainers were in a position where they are afraid of ruling out horses at the risk of punishment or fine, then they will share far less information with punters than they do already (i get this point is murky). With perspective, it’s hardly a common scenario is it. How often does a trainer categorically state a horse will not run and Cheltenham and then changes their mind. I can’t think of many. This should absolutely be investigated, and then Kim should be fined/punished accordingly if there is wrong doing, which I doubt there is.

I think we both ultimately agree there should be consequences and further action, just the order in which it happens. I disagree with the rush to punish or question Kim’s integrity. He has changed his mind in what is highly likely to be completely sincere and innocent circumstances. If not, then on his head be it.

Happy to discuss further on another thread, maybe after the festival, don’t want to torpedo the JLT thread.