What to learn from Cheltenham 2018 (with 2019 in mind)

[BigChaang]

I guess you guys are specifically talking about the festival, but multiples in general are a bookie's favourite.

I try to stay away from them nowadays and focus on mostly singles.

Virtually all my bets are L.15,L.31 or Patents , I think your probably right about the bookies liking them Jack,
But like Faugheen , I'm looking forward to the "one" dropping in and
early retirement . But actually , they're generally pretty good to me ,
No big wins yet ,, but often money back , live to fight another day.

[somer1]

it only takes one freebe multi to dropin and ya laughing

[Folski]

I think that is a good rule if you can stick to it... hindsight obviously helps.

jono made an interesting point a year or so ago about momentum and positive runs, I agree with that for jockeys and although trainers can "run hot"... it is way too hard to factor that in to any value really in my opinion.

Surprised you didn't have a great week to be honest Folski, you certainly highlighted a few ante post big priced selections.

Are you a "back-on-the-day" kind of punter? (Obviously with your well thought out ideas and notes leading up to it?)

Sorry Kev, only saw this now, if I like something before a trial I will usually back it, I had Getabird at 20s last year as I really fancied him, still think he might be the 2nd best novice from last year but that's another thing.

I had a decent week but it should have been a fantastic week, had Monalee won the JLT instead of finishing 2nd in the RSA I would have had a lovely bet for the novice chases at 2/1 10/1 and 6/1 about Footpad, himself and PP. I had BBB at 33s as well and Rathvinden at 33s, but generally what I will do is do trebles on the day and try and click a few, one year I had Road to Riches 8/1, Martello Tower 14/1 and Killultagh Vic at 12/1 and had a right few pound on Coneygree for the RSA was a bad jump at the last away from 26k, wasn't all bad as the same day i had a 5er free bet on Peace and Co, Martello & KV for about 3k.

Last few years though I think I've beaten myself at Cheltenham, my selections on the day wouldn't have been the same as mine 2 weeks out and that's cost me a lot but we will live and learn. Can't wait for the proper season to start.

[ComplyOrDie]

Two lessons I learnt that I seem to have stuck to for now are, firstly, leave the novice hurdles alone, I say I stuck to this one, but Annamix has found his way into a couple of speculative multi's but speculative is exactly what they are, little lay out for nice returns, so for that I feel I have stuck to for the most part. Secondly, and more importantly, IMO, I have used the 'any race' market a whole lot more. Thanks to you lot on here really, I mean I done a couple last season, but no where near as many as I already have on now, it we are only in September!!

[Kevloaf]

Sorry Kev, only saw this now, if I like something before a trial I will usually back it, I had Getabird at 20s last year as I really fancied him, still think he might be the 2nd best novice from last year but that's another thing.

I had a decent week but it should have been a fantastic week, had Monalee won the JLT instead of finishing 2nd in the RSA I would have had a lovely bet for the novice chases at 2/1 10/1 and 6/1 about Footpad, himself and PP. I had BBB at 33s as well and Rathvinden at 33s, but generally what I will do is do trebles on the day and try and click a few, one year I had Road to Riches 8/1, Martello Tower 14/1 and Killultagh Vic at 12/1 and had a right few pound on Coneygree for the RSA was a bad jump at the last away from 26k, wasn't all bad as the same day i had a 5er free bet on Peace and Co, Martello & KV for about 3k.

Last few years though I think I've beaten myself at Cheltenham, my selections on the day wouldn't have been the same as mine 2 weeks out and that's cost me a lot but we will live and learn. Can't wait for the proper season to start.

Interesting. Some nice pick ups and I think you can definitely take a lot from being close to some 5 figure pick ups. I had a similar season last year (that I've alreayd mentioned elsewhere probably). Nothing quite as dramatic as a bad jump though.

I actually don't tend to bet much for the huge paydays, I'm very much chipping away with small wins consistantly (Cheltenham and the whole year) but if I ever am going to land some 5 figure returns it'll be at the festival, as I just wouldn't do it elsewhere... it is genuinly hard enough picking a few winners each day without getting them together!

WIll you make a concious effort to "stick to your guns" this year? Or will the same happen again do you think?

[Innoko]

Thus far I've stuck with what I've learnt in that:

The Any Race market is a much better way to spend my hard earned this far out.
Too many points get wasted on horses not running in the races I had hoped them too.

To focus on horses trained by Mullins/Elliott/Henderson.
Won over half the races last year and whilst other trainers will have good horses, the trainers themselves may not have good records at the festival.

Use free bets on speculative multiples.
Didn't do any last year, see no better way to spend a free fiver etc..

[Folski]

Interesting. Some nice pick ups and I think you can definitely take a lot from being close to some 5 figure pick ups. I had a similar season last year (that I've alreayd mentioned elsewhere probably). Nothing quite as dramatic as a bad jump though.

I actually don't tend to bet much for the huge paydays, I'm very much chipping away with small wins consistantly (Cheltenham and the whole year) but if I ever am going to land some 5 figure returns it'll be at the festival, as I just wouldn't do it elsewhere... it is genuinly hard enough picking a few winners each day without getting them together!

WIll you make a concious effort to "stick to your guns" this year? Or will the same happen again do you think?

The guns will be well and truly stuck to this year Kev, I'll have my selections first week in March and won't change one of them

[Kevloaf]

The guns will be well and truly stuck to this year Kev, I'll have my selections first week in March and won't change one of them

I blame the ground for any last minute changes... got too downbeat on horses like Balko Des Flos and too excited by horses like First Flow!

Looking forward to some of your handicap cases again Folski, God I love this forum

[Joleg]

'God I love this forum'

Me too, just wish i had the knowledge of you guys but learning all the time.

I feel a bit of a parasite allowing you lot to do the research and then me lumping on. Hoping to contribute more as soon as im confident that i know enough!

Keep up the good work

.......and 84 pages already on the '2019 Ante-Post bets !!

[Middle_Of_March]

'God I love this forum'

Me too, just wish i had the knowledge of you guys but learning all the time.

I feel a bit of a parasite allowing you lot to do the research and then me lumping on. Hoping to contribute more as soon as im confident that i know enough!

Keep up the good work

.......and 84 pages already on the '2019 Ante-Post bets !!

I felt the same as you when I first joined. Some incredible insights on here from Kev, Faugheen, Istabraq, etc

[ryanh97]

I felt the same as you when I first joined. Some incredible insights on here from Kev, Faugheen, Istabraq, etc

Amen to that

[Star Of A Gunner]

I feel the same, a bit of a freeloader I spose, but I don't have the knowledge or the time to study, so the expertise of the contributors on here is both entertaining and in March ultimately profitable. Keep up the great work guys and look forward to the roller coaster up to the Fez.