Watched that 'upping the ante' thing for the first time, enjoy listening to the guy with all the stats but the one who keeps trying to be funny needs a slap.
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Upping the ANTE vs Kevloaf 2021
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Originally posted by Jorvik View PostWatched that 'upping the ante' thing for the first time, enjoy listening to the guy with all the stats but the one who keeps trying to be funny needs a slap.
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Originally posted by EnvoyAllen View PostPerhaps if Gavin Lynch puts up 50/1 shot ‘Ngolo’ for the Supreme next week (Ricci/Mullins), they could call the show Upping the Kante.
Ahem.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Ruby gave N'Golo a very good mention for the Supreme last night. He said he's improving all the time. He'll definitely run in the Royal Bond next. Ruby also mentioned that because of Covid and the break with no Aintree/Punchestown that quite a few of Mullins novices are behind schedule. Could be quite telling and mean that some are kept for later in the season or next season. The early novice horses out this season have a big advantage imo.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Ruby gave N'Golo a very good mention for the Supreme last night. He said he's improving all the time. He'll definitely run in the Royal Bond next. Ruby also mentioned that because of Covid and the break with no Aintree/Punchestown that quite a few of Mullins novices are behind schedule. Could be quite telling and mean that some are kept for later in the season or next season. The early novice horses out this season have a big advantage imo.
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
Willie's best novices tend to start in November and December anyway, so I wouldn't read too much into it. A lot of people think of it as 'late' but that's just how Willie campaigns his best horses. Take Supreme winners - KD started 26th December, Douvan started 22nd November, Vuatour 7th December, Champagne Fever 18th November.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
But all those wouldn't have been roughed off for the season 2 months earlier than normal and stuck in a field . This year is completely different to any other year and will affect certain trainers more than others due to their different training strategies.
Of those that are bumper horses with a view to going hurdling it obviously meant those didn’t get a bumper run after cheltenham if he planned to do so.
As we know the amount of horses Willie has and French recruits at that I’d be surprised if he is worrying or setting up different paths to his usual regime.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
But all those wouldn't have been roughed off for the season 2 months earlier than normal and stuck in a field . This year is completely different to any other year and will affect certain trainers more than others due to their different training strategies.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Ruby gave N'Golo a very good mention for the Supreme last night. He said he's improving all the time. He'll definitely run in the Royal Bond next. Ruby also mentioned that because of Covid and the break with no Aintree/Punchestown that quite a few of Mullins novices are behind schedule. Could be quite telling and mean that some are kept for later in the season or next season. The early novice horses out this season have a big advantage imo.
i do like Ngolo, think he’s constantly underestimated every race at his odds and it’s promising if he lines up for the Royal Bond, but I get the impression they know he’s not good enough for the festival. Saying that I backed 0.5 pt at 50/1, could surprise everyone !
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
There have been some schedule changes re availability of work riders, and certainly financial pressures for smaller trainers, but barring some travel restrictions trainers can pretty much go about their business with their novices as normal no - what are you basing the suggestion they'd be 'stuck in a field' on?
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Originally posted by Willdunn99 View Post
If your talking about the November Cheltenham preview video, it was me who actually promoted it with a question for Ruby and asked if Ngolo is good enough for the Supreme. My initial thought was he gave a smirk and was going to laugh it off, but then gave a diplomatic answer to be nice for the podcast. I asked if Willie had better waiting in Rich Ricci colours but he said he didn’t know.
i do like Ngolo, think he’s constantly underestimated every race at his odds and it’s promising if he lines up for the Royal Bond, but I get the impression they know he’s not good enough for the festival. Saying that I backed 0.5 pt at 50/1, could surprise everyone !
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Mister Fisher out to 40/1
Might put that up next time just to lock in the advantage against DJ
Just for clarification, the whole point of this is just to highlight that the markets shouldn't automatically cut whatever they put up on Upping The Ante.
I understand fully that they are restricted by putting up selections once a week, which is why I'm trying to show that perhaps that even I could do the same in this format.
It doesn't mean I think I'm better than Gavin Lynch or David Jennings by any stretch or that they wouldn't have amazing bets outside of the constraints of the show. I have no doubt they both would do much better than they can do in this format... but that doesn't mean that format should be celebrated or affect the markets like it does.
Personally, I'll be staggered if I don't have an 11th successive profitable festival and I'm sure even my "haters" would struggle to see that happening. It's not secret that my approach is not 'one-horse-per-race', so this format isn't in my favour but the point of me attempting this is to highlight that this forum will highlight better bets (or certainly massively comparable) if people wanted to follow them blindly too.
People dislike Pricewise selections getting cut, for me, this Upping The Ante is the same. If the bookies didn't cut the prices immediately, I wouldn't ever have mentioned it... but it does. For me, I consider that lazy punting and think [we] as a group of people who dedicate time to this, are better than the average lazy punter backing something like that show, blindly.
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