Upping the ANTE vs Kevloaf 2021

[Quevega]

Sorry if I've misunderstood Bollinger, but I would flip your comment completely the other way. Whether we believe Shishkin to be value at 6/4 is the only relevance. How a bookmaker reached this price is the less relevant bit. If you believe that Shishkin has a much greater than 40% chance of winning the QMCC then you would consider 6/4 value and you should bet it - if you don't then you won't. Precisely why the bookmaker is laying 6/4 is not really a concern (unless you feel that the bookmaker might have some info you don't have - I would obviously be concerned if they suddenly went 5/1!)

Agree here.
And with your earlier point.
The condensing of the fields is definitely having an impact on prices.
You're paying a premium for the obvious horses.
The value is usually not at the top of the market, but the risk is greater of course.
Some of these premium horse will definitely start at shorter SP's for sure, but some won't.
Last season was unusual really.

[Bollinger]

The times they are a changin and the concept of what is now value is changing with it. 10+ years ago few would be contemplating taking single figures on horses yet to have a run over hurdles or fences - in fact bookies were generous enough to be offering double figures on such animals. However, we now have Kilcruit at 4/1 for the Supreme, Appreciate It at 11/4 for the Arkle, Sir G 6/1 for Ballymore, GDC 11/2 for the RSA and Bob at 11/4 for the Marsh - all without jumping the appropriate obstacle in public. In addition we have American Mike at 9/2 and Fil Dor at 8/1 after a single run in traditionally two of the most difficult races at the Festival. This is as a result of the concentration of power into a few super stables. This has had the effect of firstly reducing the size and competitiveness of these fields (along with the introduction of other races such as the Boodles, Marsh. Mares Novice etc...) but also meaning that you can essentially narrow these races down to a field of 5 at the moment, Mullins, Elliott, Henry, Hendo and everyone else. So, if you can identify the number 1 from one of those stables then even at single figures it may constitute value - last year at this time Shishkin was around 2/1 but went off at 4/9, Envoi Allen was around 5/2 but went off at 4/9 and Sir Gerhard was 6/1 but went off at 85/40. For Gordon, Henry and Hendo its usually relatively clear from an early stage what their No. 1 contender is - Willie is more difficult though in some cases its easier than others. Personally I find it tough to back horses at such short prices this far out but am having to re-assess which prices I am willing to take in the context of the current world (though I draw the line at 11/2 in the bumper in November!). After the Festival, Appreciate It was 4/1 for the Arkle - he is now a top priced 11/4 and you can lay at sub 3/1 on the exchange so its hard to argue that the 4/1 back in March was not value (I have not backed it btw).

However, I do agree that for a prominent tipster to select a 11/2 shot in the bumper when he has 28 races to have a go at is a pretty poor effort. There is certainly better value out there than this one at the moment.

This is a really well observed post.

It would be possible to discuss ‘value’ on any particular horse, at any particular time, for days on end.

But if you were to use Shishkin as a specific example, as he’s the horse that’s dividing opinion strongly on here with regards to whether his current price of 6/4 is value……


- If you were prepared to take a calculated risk that Shishkin was going to be a monster over 2 miles in his career, then back him for the Champ Chase before for his novice chase career starts - and take the 33/1 that was freely available.

- If after his 20+ length win in his novice debut you still fancy him for the Champ Chase, take the 14/1 he was freely available at.

- If you recognised after his runs at Kempton & Doncaster pre Cheltenham he was still looking very impressive over 2 miles in his novice season, then take the 8/1 for the Champ Chase.

- If you don’t fancy taking the 4/9 for the Arkle but would rather ‘risk’ that he’ll still be exceptional a year later over 2 miles, then take the 5/1 that was freely available.

- If you were mightily impressed with his Arkle win, but realised the Champ Chase was still 12 months away, then take the 3/1 that was freely available straight after for a few days.

- If you are looking as the season starts and feel he’s the ‘most likely winner’ of the Champ Chase, then take the 6/4 & 7/4 that are freely available.

- If he wins the Tingle Creek in a fortnight’s time and you feel he looked mighty impressive, the take the 6/5 & 11/10 that the bookies will likely trim him to.

- If he wins the Clarence House or Game Spirit shortly after Xmas and looks fit and well, then take the 4/5 & 5/6 they’ll be offering.

- Anf if he gets to the festival fit, firing and still unbeaten over fences, then take the 4/6 knowing you’ve not risked anything 12/18 months in advance and your selection is just about to go off as a strong favourite by the starting flag.



Assess your risk in relation to a potential reward at any of these points 18 months in advance to the flag falling of the Champion Chase, and take your price accordingly.

[Bollinger]

Sorry if I've misunderstood Bollinger, but I would flip your comment completely the other way. Whether we believe Shishkin to be value at 6/4 is the only relevance. How a bookmaker reached this price is the less relevant bit. If you believe that Shishkin has a much greater than 40% chance of winning the QMCC then you would consider 6/4 value and you should bet it - if you don't then you won't. Precisely why the bookmaker is laying 6/4 is not really a concern (unless you feel that the bookmaker might have some info you don't have - I would obviously be concerned if they suddenly went 5/1!)

I think your point is well made. And whilst I understand fully how the odds bookmakers offer are relative to the specific probability of the ‘event happening’, if I took 7/1 on a horse, I wouldn’t try to somehow try to assess with all the info I had whether he had a 12.5% chance of winning.

Likewise, if Shishkin was 10/1 a year ago and I thought 12 months in advance he would be a strong favourite for the champ Chase 12 months later, I wouldn’t necessarily try to assess if that meant he only had a 10% chance of winning when it might be 40% 8 months later.

[Faugheen_Machine]

In the Ballymore, Albert Bartlett or both?!

The Albert Bartlett.

[darlojim]

UTA tips:

DJ:
Might I ballymore 40/1
Burning victory mares 33/1

Gavin:
Ferny Arkle 10/1

[Odin]

UTA tips:

DJ:
Might I ballymore 40/1
Burning victory mares 33/1

Gavin:
Ferny Arkle 10/1

Question for anyone:

What are the chances Gavin has an inside scoop that ferny is likely to go for the arkle?

[FinalFurlong91]

Question for anyone:

What are the chances Gavin has an inside scoop that ferny is likely to go for the arkle?

Low

Even willie wouldnt be sure where ferny will run, he mentioned the marsh but what happens on the track will dictate where he goes like always

He looks more like a potential arkle horse to me, ve interesting to see how they look

[Big Bucks]

It sort of forces our hand now with Ferny, especially if wanting him in your book, as GL moves markets and that price will go. I think discipline is key here, kind of going in blind as still no idea where Ferny will go!

Suppose it comes back to the strategy if willing to sit back and wait for insurance, if trust the cash out or wait for nrnb and up the stake to boost returns! Decisions, decisions!

[Odin]

Low

Even willie wouldnt be sure where ferny will run, he mentioned the marsh but what happens on the track will dictate where he goes like always

He looks more like a potential arkle horse to me, ve interesting to see how they look

I thought as much. I have him covered for both chases but also thought he looked more of an arkle horse and would prefer him to go there

[Run4Home]

Question for anyone:

What are the chances Gavin has an inside scoop that ferny is likely to go for the arkle?

Won't have a clue, will be guessing like everyone.
WP won't know where he ends up at this stage I would think, chances are you'll see both start at 2m and the horses almost will pick the target for the trainer based on jumping etc and how the early races go

[SeanRock]

That’s the of for Burning Victory now! David Jennings doesn’t know his arse from his elbow.

[Markmightbite]

I’d love to know how Jennings moves bloody markets!!

[charlie]

I’d love to know how Jennings moves bloody markets!!

Might I hasn't moved, nor should he cause its a shit tip, but there is a lot of merit to his BV selection. He didn't articulate it too well, but he's right on this one IMO.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Might I hasn't moved, nor should he cause its a shit tip, but there is a lot of merit to his BV selection. He didn't articulate it too well, but he's right on this one IMO.

If BV meets half of the hurdles on a decent stride she'll be the one to beat, imo. If she does get her hurdling together I wonder if they'd be tempted by the Stayers. On a line through Buzz in the Cesarewitch, she'd be there or there abouts.

A few ifs in there though

[Spectre]

If BV meets half of the hurdles on a decent stride she'll be the one to beat, imo. If she does get her hurdling together I wonder if they'd be tempted by the Stayers. On a line through Buzz in the Cesarewitch, she'd be there or there abouts.

A few ifs in there though

On her line though Buzz she'd finish ahead of him in the Stayers getting her allowance. It's probably too literal a line, particularly with her jumping, but she went on 'Stayers Watch' with me as soon as the pair of them finished first and second in the Ces.