Upping the ANTE vs Kevloaf 2021

[PresentingPercy]

David Jennings tweeted this weeks episode at 5.35PM. At 5.43PM, Bet365 had cut American Mike from 11/2 industry best price into 9/2. Gotta be fast in this game!

[Lobos]

Tipping an 11/2 shot 4 months out from Cheltenham on a tipping show is poor, but in the bumper, it's abysmal IMO. Could understand if we were a month out and had a bit more to go on, but thats sloppy from GL. I enjoy watching the show, but I enjoy more seeing the prices people have secured before they tip them.

I've no doubts at all that both of them have backed the majority of their tips at the same prices that we've picked up. Its just that their shows start now and they have to go with current prices.

[FinalFurlong91]

I've no doubts at all that both of them have backed the majority of their tips at the same prices that we've picked up. Its just that their shows start now and they have to go with current prices.

gavin put up American mike in his racing post column before he ran at down royal I think

I'm still surprised he put him up at 11/2 as that cant be a good price whether he wins or not

[Lobos]

gavin put up American mike in his racing post column before he ran at down royal I think

I'm still surprised he put him up at 11/2 as that cant be a good price whether he wins or not

It will clearly he a good price if he wins

[FinalFurlong91]

It will clearly he a good price if he wins

Not really

Thats not how value works

Shiskin could win the champion chase hard held in March that doesn't mean he's a good price right now

Backing horses at 11/2 for the bumper in November surely won't pay in the long run

[Lobos]

'Shiskin could win the champion chase hard held in March that doesn't mean he's a good price right now'

It could though couldn't it ? All depends on the individual I suppose. We could all be wasting money backing against him.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm surprised Gavin hasn't put Journey With Me up given he's stand out price with 365.

[Halffat1]

I'm surprised Gavin hasn't put Journey With Me up given he's stand out price with 365.

In the Ballymore, Albert Bartlett or both?!

[charlie]

It will clearly he a good price if he wins

That view is flawed IMO. Ante-post betting is all about value. Ability and opposition calibre are cornerstones of understanding value. American Mike hasn't been properly tested yet so we have no idea how good he is, and we probably haven't seen half the eventual runners. The tip is terrible regardless of outcome for the value reasons FF91 gives. I'd actually go one step further and call it abysmal. GL has 28 races to go at and we know he's not afraid of doing his research. Hundreds of horses to potentially select and he lands on an 11/2 shot in a notoriously difficult race to win. On top of the above, AM has a pronounced action and is by Mahler who you wouldn't associate with speed. Every which way I look at it, its a poor tip, even if American Mike wins hard held in March I'll still stand by this view. On the flip side, it's fantastic reading through diaries/posts and seeing people on the forum backing horses these lads tip at not just significantly better prices, but often, with far more compelling cases made. Reaffirms just how great this place is, and, if the FJF ran a similar podcast I'm convinced it would have more viewers and more winners.

[Buckingham]

That view is flawed IMO. Ante-post betting is all about value. Ability and opposition calibre are cornerstones of understanding value. American Mike hasn't been properly tested yet so we have no idea how good he is, and we probably haven't seen half the eventual runners. The tip is terrible regardless of outcome for the value reasons FF91 gives. I'd actually go one step further and call it abysmal. GL has 28 races to go at and we know he's not afraid of doing his research. Hundreds of horses to potentially select and he lands on an 11/2 shot in a notoriously difficult race to win. On top of the above, AM has a pronounced action and is by Mahler who you wouldn't associate with speed. Every which way I look at it, its a poor tip, even if American Mike wins hard held in March I'll still stand by this view. On the flip side, it's fantastic reading through diaries/posts and seeing people on the forum backing horses these lads tip at not just significantly better prices, but often, with far more compelling cases made. Reaffirms just how great this place is, and, if the FJF ran a similar podcast I'm convinced it would have more viewers and more winners.

The times they are a changin and the concept of what is now value is changing with it. 10+ years ago few would be contemplating taking single figures on horses yet to have a run over hurdles or fences - in fact bookies were generous enough to be offering double figures on such animals. However, we now have Kilcruit at 4/1 for the Supreme, Appreciate It at 11/4 for the Arkle, Sir G 6/1 for Ballymore, GDC 11/2 for the RSA and Bob at 11/4 for the Marsh - all without jumping the appropriate obstacle in public. In addition we have American Mike at 9/2 and Fil Dor at 8/1 after a single run in traditionally two of the most difficult races at the Festival. This is as a result of the concentration of power into a few super stables. This has had the effect of firstly reducing the size and competitiveness of these fields (along with the introduction of other races such as the Boodles, Marsh. Mares Novice etc...) but also meaning that you can essentially narrow these races down to a field of 5 at the moment, Mullins, Elliott, Henry, Hendo and everyone else. So, if you can identify the number 1 from one of those stables then even at single figures it may constitute value - last year at this time Shishkin was around 2/1 but went off at 4/9, Envoi Allen was around 5/2 but went off at 4/9 and Sir Gerhard was 6/1 but went off at 85/40. For Gordon, Henry and Hendo its usually relatively clear from an early stage what their No. 1 contender is - Willie is more difficult though in some cases its easier than others. Personally I find it tough to back horses at such short prices this far out but am having to re-assess which prices I am willing to take in the context of the current world (though I draw the line at 11/2 in the bumper in November!). After the Festival, Appreciate It was 4/1 for the Arkle - he is now a top priced 11/4 and you can lay at sub 3/1 on the exchange so its hard to argue that the 4/1 back in March was not value (I have not backed it btw).

However, I do agree that for a prominent tipster to select a 11/2 shot in the bumper when he has 28 races to have a go at is a pretty poor effort. There is certainly better value out there than this one at the moment.

[charlie]

The times they are a changin and the concept of what is now value is changing with it. 10+ years ago few would be contemplating taking single figures on horses yet to have a run over hurdles or fences - in fact bookies were generous enough to be offering double figures on such animals. However, we now have Kilcruit at 4/1 for the Supreme, Appreciate It at 11/4 for the Arkle, Sir G 6/1 for Ballymore, GDC 11/2 for the RSA and Bob at 11/4 for the Marsh - all without jumping the appropriate obstacle in public. In addition we have American Mike at 9/2 and Fil Dor at 8/1 after a single run in traditionally two of the most difficult races at the Festival. This is as a result of the concentration of power into a few super stables. This has had the effect of firstly reducing the size and competitiveness of these fields (along with the introduction of other races such as the Boodles, Marsh. Mares Novice etc...) but also meaning that you can essentially narrow these races down to a field of 5 at the moment, Mullins, Elliott, Henry, Hendo and everyone else. So, if you can identify the number 1 from one of those stables then even at single figures it may constitute value - last year at this time Shishkin was around 2/1 but went off at 4/9, Envoi Allen was around 5/2 but went off at 4/9 and Sir Gerhard was 6/1 but went off at 85/40. For Gordon, Henry and Hendo its usually relatively clear from an early stage what their No. 1 contender is - Willie is more difficult though in some cases its easier than others. Personally I find it tough to back horses at such short prices this far out but am having to re-assess which prices I am willing to take in the context of the current world (though I draw the line at 11/2 in the bumper in November!). After the Festival, Appreciate It was 4/1 for the Arkle - he is now a top priced 11/4 and you can lay at sub 3/1 on the exchange so its hard to argue that the 4/1 back in March was not value (I have not backed it btw).

However, I do agree that for a prominent tipster to select a 11/2 shot in the bumper when he has 28 races to have a go at is a pretty poor effort. There is certainly better value out there than this one at the moment.

Kilcruit, Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard, GDC and Bob Olinger are all in a different parish to American Mike. All of them have been to Cheltenham and run well or won, all of them have competed at the very highest level and most are multiple grade 1 winners. Apples and oranges

[ComplyOrDie]

Kilcruit, Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard, GDC and Bob Olinger are all in a different parish to American Mike. All of them have been to Cheltenham and run well or won, all of them have competed at the very highest level and most are multiple grade 1 winners. Apples and oranges

They ALL also have a completely new, different discipline to learn, American Mike has absolutely nothing to jump, he just has to run, literally it, albeit still well enough to prove his ability. I guess it depends on how you view risk, would you rather risk a horse running to his expected (by connections, who have a history of knowing what they have) ability with little else in the way except opponents, or a horse who has to transition to running over hurdles or a fence. We can all sit here and say Bob Olinger or Appreciate It are bankers, but so was Envoi Allen at this stage of last season. It takes one mistake over an obstacle unfortunately.

I don't know if this is factual, but I'd put it our there that a horse is more likely to also pick up an injury training and racing over hurdles and fences than a bumper horse would, i.e. Ferny Hollow last season, who again, was the one for the Supreme at this stage, and was probably around the same price (though can't remember for sure) that American Mike is after one run.

[Buckingham]

Kilcruit, Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard, GDC and Bob Olinger are all in a different parish to American Mike. All of them have been to Cheltenham and run well or won, all of them have competed at the very highest level and most are multiple grade 1 winners. Apples and oranges

My point is that Gordon has done the sifting for you - he is one of the few trainers able to source the quality raw material that targets this race and he is heavily inferring that this is the best bumper horse in his yard. As such, history is telling you that such animals (super stable selected in novice races) are likely to go off short at the Festival. If you believe that definition of value is securing better odds than a horses "true" chance and the latter is best defined by a closing BSP on the day then you can make a case for all these short priced horses, including American Mike to resemble some sort of value. I'm not disagreeing with you - I don't particularly like American Mike's price and I think its a poor tip in week 2 for a high profile tipster - but as ComplyOrDie says, he's proven in his discipline, he's also won his bumper easily, with decent sectionals and is highly likely to be the stable selected from one of the few yards likely to win the event so its credible to make a value case for him. Personally (and value is absolutely in the eye of the beholder) he does not float my boat at the current price but I can see why people today would back him (and I would never have been able to say that 10+ years ago).

[Bollinger]

Not really

Thats not how value works

Shiskin could win the champion chase hard held in March that doesn't mean he's a good price right now

Backing horses at 11/2 for the bumper in November surely won't pay in the long run

Whether we believe Shishkin to be 6/4 as ‘value’ is a tiny bit irrelevant. His price has been purely dictated by the fact his career thus far has been (barring one fall on hurdles debut) scintillating and even more presciently, the weight of money that has no doubt been placed on him throughout the Spring, Summer and early autumn months.

Thats why he’s 6/4.

Whether that’s value or not is a moot subject matter based on the evidence Shishkin himself can show you on a ‘career highlights reel’ and each bookmaker’s liabilities if he wins, which they probably won’t want to show you.

As I’ve previously mentioned, at 6/4, let others decide if 6/4 is still value - they might assess its breadcrumbs or still gold.

[Buckingham]

Whether we believe Shishkin to be 6/4 as ‘value’ is a tiny bit irrelevant. His price has been purely dictated by the fact his career thus far has been (barring one fall on hurdles debut) scintillating and even more presciently, the weight of money that has no doubt been placed on him throughout the Spring, Summer and early autumn months.

Thats why he’s 6/4.

Whether that’s value or not is a moot subject matter based on the evidence Shishkin himself can show you on a ‘career highlights reel’ and each bookmaker’s liabilities if he wins, which they probably won’t want to show you.

As I’ve previously mentioned, at 6/4, let others decide if 6/4 is still value - they might assess its breadcrumbs or still gold.

Sorry if I've misunderstood Bollinger, but I would flip your comment completely the other way. Whether we believe Shishkin to be value at 6/4 is the only relevance. How a bookmaker reached this price is the less relevant bit. If you believe that Shishkin has a much greater than 40% chance of winning the QMCC then you would consider 6/4 value and you should bet it - if you don't then you won't. Precisely why the bookmaker is laying 6/4 is not really a concern (unless you feel that the bookmaker might have some info you don't have - I would obviously be concerned if they suddenly went 5/1!)