Upping the ANTE vs Kevloaf 2021

[germanshepherd]

Concertista is an interesting one. 5-1 ?
I can't have her as being good enough to beat Honeysuckle or BDD myself.
So it is a bet that only gets good if both the other 2 don't run.

The longer BDD doesn't run the less likely she goes Mares chase.
And it is likely that Honeysuckles task this year in the Irish Champion is going to be tougher, so all but a good win and she goes back for the mares hurdle, especially if Epatante is fit and firing.

Even if she's not good enough to beat Honeysuckle she'll be 5/2 max on the day. Good bet.

[Lobos]

You could see GL trying not to laugh at DJs selection. He's an awful price at 12/1, imo, and I honestly wouldn't back him at twice those odds.

Probably win by 10 lengths on the bridal at Xmas now

[Quevega]

I’m heavily involved with Honeysuckle but decided to back Concertista earlier today at 5s with 365 (before GL put her up...honest). I share your thinking for the most part although I do think if Concertista wins over Christmas and both her and BDD stay fit and well they will be split and it will only be Concertista that comes for this race. Part of my thinking is not only do I like to have a cover bet, is that I have been very confident on the fav the last 3 seasons and 2 of them ended up beaten by well supported/obvious second favs, obvs Honeysuckle last season and BDD beating Apples Jade in 2018. As a Honeysuckle backer Concertista is the only horse that concerns me.

Willie's more likely to run his 2 mares in the hurdle and he has plenty of options for the Mares Chase also.
Like when he raced Vroum Vroum & Limini against Apples' Jade (he was desperate to win that one, and I think he thinks the mares race is his own)

Either way he's going to go in at least double or triple handed to both races.

[Lobos]

I don't have to tell you that I think Concertista will go off a strong fav in the Mares Hurdle.


I just did though.

[Quevega]

Even if she's not good enough to beat Honeysuckle she'll be 5/2 max on the day. Good bet.

Yep, it's a solid type of bet, but does rely on one pr both not turning up.
And there's a good chance they both do.

In which case 5-1/9/2 would be about right.
You'd have to price the other 2 in front of her, as they are both multiple grade 1 winners, and she's not run on one yet. And unlikely too before the day.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Yeah all very fair points. They do seem to want another crack at her that's for sure, unless they do it after Chelt if they think Concer is good enough.

Likely reading into it but when asked last nigth on her Ruby straight away said Mares Chase ...

I personally would factor in the market support in recent weeks for both BDD and Concertista for these two races. Betfair this evening is telling. That’s not to say things can’t change but I think BDD Mares Chase and Concertista Mares Hurdle is the plan at the moment

[Quevega]

I personally would factor in the market support in recent weeks for both BDD and Concertista for these two races. Betfair this evening is telling. That’s not to say things can’t change but I think BDD Mares Chase and Concertista Mares Hurdle is the plan at the moment

Agreed.
The market does look to be edging that way.
Although to me it appears to be punters leading this.

The campaigning of Concertista smacks of Mares hurdle so that's a no brainer, unless they get injuries with the 2 mile Geldings they have.
And the emergence of her has led people to sway BDD for the chase.

If BDD was definitely committed to the Mares chase - would she be available at 6-1 ??

And if you look at the betting for the Mares chase, and take Honeysuckle and PTKO out of it.

Mullins has the first 5 in the betting. Including a Ricci horse who has been chasing for the last 2 seasons.
Salsaretta, Elfile, Colreevy, Elimay. BDD.

The first four are much more like grade 2 animals also.

[germanshepherd]

Willie's more likely to run his 2 mares in the hurdle and he has plenty of options for the Mares Chase also.
Like when he raced Vroum Vroum & Limini against Apples' Jade (he was desperate to win that one, and I think he thinks the mares race is his own)

Either way he's going to go in at least double or triple handed to both races.

I think his main concern is having winners. There wasn't a mares chase when they were in training. I think he'll rather split them up have a freebie in the chase and take on Honeysuckle with Concertista. I wouldn't be concerned that she hasn't jumped a fence in public for a while she'll do enough schooling to be ready for the mares chase. He'd rather have 2 winners than 1.

[Lobos]

Concertista is an interesting one. 5-1 ?
I can't have her as being good enough to beat Honeysuckle or BDD myself.
So it is a bet that only gets good if both the other 2 don't run.

The longer BDD doesn't run the less likely she goes Mares chase.
And it is likely that Honeysuckles task this year in the Irish Champion is going to be tougher, so all but a good win and she goes back for the mares hurdle, especially if Epatante is fit and firing.

What makes you think her task in this year's Irish Champion will be any tougher? Surely Saint Roi and Aba won't run ?

[Quevega]

I think his main concern is having winners. There wasn't a mares chase when they were in training. I think he'll rather split them up have a freebie in the chase and take on Honeysuckle with Concertista. I wouldn't be concerned that she hasn't jumped a fence in public for a while she'll do enough schooling to be ready for the mares chase. He'd rather have 2 winners than 1.

He has plenty of options for the chase though, as I've mentioned above.
If you can have 2 good darts or even more then that's even more desirable.

[Run4Home]

I think his main concern is having winners. There wasn't a mares chase when they were in training. I think he'll rather split them up have a freebie in the chase and take on Honeysuckle with Concertista. I wouldn't be concerned that she hasn't jumped a fence in public for a while she'll do enough schooling to be ready for the mares chase. He'd rather have 2 winners than 1.

Very similar to Mullins, Rich is very much about Cheltenham winners and going for the easier race which is a factor. Some owners rather the bigger races but he openly talks about just havin winners so if Mullins was to push towards the chase I don't think Rich would be at all pushed.
He spoke about it being an option before Mullins had said anything.

I couldn't see Salsaretta winning it for him, a horrible price too.

If BDD comes out then Colreevy is the one for me

[Quevega]

What makes you think her task in this year's Irish Champion will be any tougher? Surely Saint Roi and Aba won't run ?

I'd think it's highly likely they'll run.
Why not ?

[germanshepherd]

He said Salsaretta needs soft ground I don't think he can rely on her. Elfile is a possible but she hasn't run this season yet.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Agreed.
The market does look to be edging that way.
Although to me it appears to be punters leading this.

The campaigning of Concertista smacks of Mares hurdle so that's a no brainer, unless they get injuries with the 2 mile Geldings they have.
And the emergence of her has led people to sway BDD for the chase.

If BDD was definitely committed to the Mares chase - would she be available at 6-1 ??

And if you look at the betting for the Mares chase, and take Honeysuckle and PTKO out of it.

Mullins has the first 5 in the betting. Including a Ricci horse who has been chasing for the last 2 seasons.
Salsaretta, Elfile, Colreevy, Elimay. BDD.

The first four are much more like grade 2 animals also.

I would say less committed and more favouring, she’s also had a slight setback if memory serves me correct. That said I think what you have said is fair and BDD turning up in the Mares Hurdle is still a real possibility. Should she turn up I would hope to cash out my Concertista bet and happily go single handedly with Honeysuckle.

[Lobos]

I'd think it's highly likely they'll run.
Why not ?

Just think they are more likely to go straight to the Fez after the Matheson. That seems to be the sexy thing to do these days. May be wrong.