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The first yankee is on the ante post yankee thread, so we can debate the April one here, as istabraq has suggested.
We have some contenders already so keep them coming, plenty of time till 30th April.
The beauty of Aprils yankee is that we'll have Aintree, Punchestown and Sandown performances to consider.
I'm not as sold as some on Laurina's intention/ability to jump a fence, 3/1 the Mares race will look a decent price if they confirm that she stays over hurdles....
If we’re looking to get horses covered who would be guaranteed to be shorter than their price for the race should they turn up...
Samcro in the JLT. I’m not buying the Champions Hurdle hype and I’m not sure they’ll put him in the RSA and have Mengli Khan for the Arkle.
Apples Jade at 4/1 in the Mares looks far too big as well. Laurina will be in the CH or the Arkle in my opinion.
Apples Jade is a good call imo. It's not often GE makes a mistake but I'd be fairly sure the lack of a recent run was her downfall. She needs plenty of racing to be at her best and I think they'll run her in the Irish Champion hurdle next season.
Not too sure about Apples Jade, I was watching the atr morning brief from the course when they had Kevin Blake on. He said he was against Getabird because of his tendency to jump right which we had discussed, he then went on to say he was against Apples Jade too because he'd noticed that she had also developed a tendency to jump right over her last couple of races. He was spot on too, if they can't iron that out I think she is up against it at Cheltenham
Apples Jade is a good call imo. It's not often GE makes a mistake but I'd be fairly sure the lack of a recent run was her downfall. She needs plenty of racing to be at her best and I think they'll run her in the Irish Champion hurdle next season.
I agree with the points made about Carefully Selected in the other thread by SeanRock.
Rare that you get a target this far out.... if he looks an Albert Bartlett horse to Willie, and he does to my eye and obviously the others on here... Will have had enough expereince as long as he has a prep run too. 20/1 a decent selection. I weigh in behind that.
Not too sure about Apples Jade, I was watching the atr morning brief from the course when they had Kevin Blake on. He said he was against Getabird because of his tendency to jump right which we had discussed, he then went on to say he was against Apples Jade too because he'd noticed that she had also developed a tendency to jump right over her last couple of races. He was spot on too, if they can't iron that out I think she is up against it at Cheltenham
She did jump slightly to the right but I don't think that cost her the race.
I forgot about her being in season, can't have helped either. I've had 5pts on Apples Jade at 5.4/1 with William Hills for next year's Mares Hurdle
Identity thief must come into the reckoning for the stayers after that, breezed past horses considered top performers at the distance on his first attempt. Was very classy over hurdles before they went down the chasing route, put up a couple of good performances this season without troubling the judge, looks to me like the step up in trip could be the making of him.
Identity thief must come into the reckoning for the stayers after that, breezed past horses considered top performers at the distance on his first attempt. Was very classy over hurdles before they went down the chasing route, put up a couple of good performances this season without troubling the judge, looks to me like the step up in trip could be the making of him.
My first thought, is that 20/1 is actually fairly generous.
I like it when a horse wins at the first time at 3 miles, as the extra trip is one of the biggest genuine reasons a horse can improve IMO.
Just wondering though, was it just the step up that was the improvement, or was it also the ground?
Just looking back through his form, he's never performed well on good ground. We obviously need to "aim" toward good-to-soft as ante post punters for Cheltenham, so that is a slight concern? For example he was beaten 33L over 20f by Buveuir D'air at Aintree last year on good... whereas this year (different trip AND ground) and he looks a different horse?
Identity thief must come into the reckoning for the stayers after that, breezed past horses considered top performers at the distance on his first attempt. Was very classy over hurdles before they went down the chasing route, put up a couple of good performances this season without troubling the judge, looks to me like the step up in trip could be the making of him.
A week ago I would have thought anyone was mad at bringing up Identity Thief in any kind of bet but I have say I can see the appeal absolutely. He bolted up yesterday. I almost backed him before the race, thought I was mad...wish I had! All credit has to go to the trainer for getting him back to form this year. He looked gone at the game at the back end of last season.
O'Leary stated after the race:
It opens up another avenue now and we'll keep him to three-mile hurdling. He'll definitely go to Punchestown – everything's going to Punchestown
Which is good news for his target. Even if he didn't he has nowhere else to go. They would be mad to try him out chasing again after finally getting him back to form and he's not going to step back down to 2 miles. If you do fancy him - one to get onboard before the Champion Stayers Hurdle as if he follows up there 20's will be long gone. Part of me questions how good the race was yesterday but I think that's more a sign of the division rather than Aintree race in isolation. Penhill aside, only really Supasundae bypassed the race and he's now 1/9 in grade 1 races so you have to question him at this level. Take out last season where from December onwards it went all wrong he has plenty going for him. His first season in open company included
1st in the Fighting Fifth
Only 2 lengths 2nd behind Nichols Canynon in the Ryanair Hurdle
Coming 2nd in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Punchestown
Let's just say you took last season out of the equation, say he was injured. That season followed by what actually has been an ok season now winning his first attempt at 3 miles like that - he'd be at the forefront of the betting. His breeding what suggest stamina is what he actually wants and the run yesterday suggested he really enjoyed the long run in at Aintree, so you would expect him to enjoy the new course much more than the old course at the festival.
Any ground concerns? I'd be slightly concerned on good ground, his record looks like so:
Good 6U
Good-Soft 6
Yielding P121P
Soft 161121
Heavy 42
So wins on yielding ground is encouraging and the 2 runs on good ground were last season when he seemed gone at the game so i'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.
On a quick side note (and not for this) I imagine there could be some decent prices, certainly on the exchange for The World's End next season. Maybe the argument is riding thin but would love to see him get his good ground at some point in one of these key 3 mile races to see whether he really can step up a gear on his preferred ground or he just isn't quite up to the level. We just haven't been able to say for sure all year with the ground.
On Santini - I'm pretty shocked he is still 12/1 for the RSA. No doubt on target (imo) and although the division has the potential to be really competitive, bar Samcro, his form has to put him as the next leading contender? Think 12/1 for the RSA is a must for any kind of yankee myself.
Santini 16/1 is a horse I've already backed pre Aintree for the RSA and I'm also surprised the price is still there.
I am in the Samcro to the RSA camp at the moment which obviously would put me off getting too heavily involved in Santini (or anything in the RSA) ... however the bookies/plenty on here think Samcro will be going Arkle or JLT ... which I obviously can't rule out despite my points being made elsehwere....
On the JLT, Black Op clearly a player for that too? Unless Samcro runs there!
Santini 16/1 is a horse I've already backed pre Aintree for the RSA and I'm also surprised the price is still there.
I am in the Samcro to the RSA camp at the moment which obviously would put me off getting too heavily involved in Santini (or anything in the RSA) ... however the bookies/plenty on here think Samcro will be going Arkle or JLT ... which I obviously can't rule out despite my points being made elsehwere....
On the JLT, Black Op clearly a player for that too? Unless Samcro runs there!
Santini is 12/1 any race with Hills if anyone is interested in that. It seems a good price to me.
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All credit has to go to the trainer for getting him back to form this year. He looked gone at the game at the back end of last season.
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