Mares Novice Hurdle 2021

[The Don]

I think Gran Luna has a big chance here. Won on debut for Henderson at Newbury despite a significant wind problem ie not just in need of a cauterised palette. Owned by the Donnelly’s. Not many horses win whilst experiencing wind problems. The only other instance I can recall is Simonsig in the Arkle. Henderson confirming the intention to run here. I’m not convinced we’ve seen a stand out horse for this race. At 40-1, I’ll roll the dice.

Great shout this and mentioned in his blog as ready to run next 2 weeks.... she’s looked very good. I don’t think she’s owned by the Donnellys is she?

Spanish Moon seems to breed nice mares. At 40s with cashout well worth a go.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Great shout this and mentioned in his blog as ready to run next 2 weeks.... she’s looked very good. I don’t think she’s owned by the Donnellys is she?

Spanish Moon seems to breed nice mares. At 40s with cashout well worth a go.

My mistake, she’s not owned by the Donnelly’s. Glad you liked the thinking though

[Liammet]

Tuesday 26th.

Irish entries for weekends are always on Tuesday.

Thanks Saxon

[TigerRolllllll]

Have we seen all Willie’s yet?

Happy to be on Gauloise, but can’t help thinking he may have better

[Topofthegame2021]

Have we seen all Willie’s yet?

Happy to be on Gauloise, but can’t help thinking he may have better

Idoles Des Jeunes is all I know of that we haven't seen that might be any good

[Lobos]

Have we seen all Willie’s yet?

Happy to be on Gauloise, but can’t help thinking he may have better

I think so. He won't have any more out there at this late stage that will run in this year's race IMHO.

[Kotkijet]

Is there a reason Riviere d'Etel has not been mentioned in this thread?

[Kevloaf]

Is there a reason Riviere d'Etel has not been mentioned in this thread?

Triumph I'd guess....

Quevega is the only chump I've seen talking her up though.

[Lobos]

Is there a reason Riviere d'Etel has not been mentioned in this thread?

Probably an age thing Kot. No 4yo has won the race before.

[Kotkijet]

Triumph I'd guess....

Quevega is the only chump I've seen talking her up though.

The owners already have Zanahiyr and Gordon Elliot has got about dozen others for the race. The only ones I'm seeing in the Dawn Run for either are some bumper horses and a maiden winner whose been beaten twice since. Don't think Riviere has much better than a place chance in the Triumph. Not clued up on the mares novice division but at a glance, it looks like the softer race.

Probably an age thing Kot. No 4yo has won the race before.

Only six have tried and the shortest priced of those was a 25/1 shot.

[Lobos]

Only six have tried and the shortest priced of those was a 25/1 shot


There will be a reason for only 6 trying though. Women v Girls if you like. Not impossible but highly unlikely.

[Kotkijet]

That kind of makes sense but I had to check this for myself...

So the record of four year olds in fillies and mares novice and open non-selling races since 2012 is slightly below average with a 9.4% strike rate - the win rate for five and older being 10.5%. But there appeared to be a lot of deadwood abound so I got rid of all horses that started above 10/1. Both strike rates went up as expected, but the four year olds ended up ahead at 26.5% compared to 24.7% for the oldies. There has also been a few examples of juvenile fillies scoring against their seniors.

Une Artiste - Listed Mares Novice - Cheltenham - April 2012
Gitane du Berlais - Grade 3 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - April 2014
Adriana des Mottes - Grade 1 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - April 2014
Intense Tango - Grade 2 Mares Hurdle - Doncaster - January 2015
Jer's Girl - Grade 1 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - March 2016 (also beat the older boys at Punchestown)

You also had the four year olds winning the mares novice at Punchestown three years on the bounce.

I notice that the winners rather drop of recently but looking through those that ran in the relevant races at Cheltenham, Punchestown and Fairyhouse, it looks to be more a case of quality in the division than fancied four year olds flopping. Plus, of the highest rated juvenile fillies after 2016, neither Burning Victory nor Apple's Shakira were tried against older mares, Stormy Ireland won at Killarney in May and French Made won an open aged maiden in January before returning to her own age group.

[Lobos]

That kind of makes sense but I had to check this for myself...

So the record of four year olds in fillies and mares novice and open non-selling races since 2012 is slightly below average with a 9.4% strike rate - the win rate for five and older being 10.5%. But there appeared to be a lot of deadwood abound so I got rid of all horses that started above 10/1. Both strike rates went up as expected, but the four year olds ended up ahead at 26.5% compared to 24.7% for the oldies. There has also been a few examples of juvenile fillies scoring against their seniors.

Une Artiste - Listed Mares Novice - Cheltenham - April 2012
Gitane du Berlais - Grade 3 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - April 2014
Adriana des Mottes - Grade 1 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - April 2014
Intense Tango - Grade 2 Mares Hurdle - Doncaster - January 2015
Jer's Girl - Grade 1 Mares Novice - Fairyhouse - March 2016 (also beat the older boys at Punchestown)

You also had the four year olds winning the mares novice at Punchestown three years on the bounce.

I notice that the winners rather drop of recently but looking through those that ran in the relevant races at Cheltenham, Punchestown and Fairyhouse, it looks to be more a case of quality in the division than fancied four year olds flopping. Plus, of the highest rated juvenile fillies after 2016, neither Burning Victory nor Apple's Shakira were tried against older mares, Stormy Ireland won at Killarney in May and French Made won an open aged maiden in January before returning to her own age group.

Very interesting. Based on that, it is strange why more haven't taken their chance at the Fez.

[Kotkijet]

That's what I can't get my head around.

My best guess is that there just hasn't been the quality at the right time. Like this season, the next best filly in Ireland after Riviere d'Etel is the no better than slightly-above-average Scholastic. It is not much deeper in Britain, with Progressive and Megan maybe being useful and Hiconic's crown being taken by Talking About You (who incidentally, beat the older girls at Taunton last month).

[darlojim]

If Echoes in Rain ran with promise today she may come into the reckoning. Won very nicely on seasonal debut this year and Willie thought enough of her to put her straight in the deep end in the Knight Frank that Aspire Tower won.