Mares Novice Hurdle 2021

[Spectre]

I did cash Santa Rossa. No point in holding on. Just put her in a tracker and decide whether to re-back her if/when she gets and entry.

[Rooster Booster]

So this will be in contention for one of the worst posts of the year I suspect. There are many obvious reasons why folks would be against Rose Of Arcadia but she was quite prominent in the market in the early stages. She pulled fiercely fto and disappointed. The trainer has talked in glowing terms but fully understand why folks would not see that as a positive. I think she has had a wind op and has drifted to 40s in a few places. She is entered at Wincanton Saturday and a good performance could see a significant trim. She may be one of those horses that is not being watched by the firms so hovering over a button in running might be a play.

[Quevega]

So this will be in contention for one of the worst posts of the year I suspect. There are many obvious reasons why folks would be against Rose Of Arcadia but she was quite prominent in the market in the early stages. She pulled fiercely fto and disappointed. The trainer has talked in glowing terms but fully understand why folks would not see that as a positive. I think she has had a wind op and has drifted to 40s in a few places. She is entered at Wincanton Saturday and a good performance could see a significant trim. She may be one of those horses that is not being watched by the firms so hovering over a button in running might be a play.

Looks a poor race, I can see the price moving if she wins impressively, but
Surely a novice mare with Tizzard is unlikely to go off less than 25-1 on the day, unless Mullins sends none over.

[Rooster Booster]

Looks a poor race, I can see the price moving if she wins impressively, but
Surely a novice mare with Tizzard is unlikely to go off less than 25-1 on the day, unless Mullins sends none over.

Some firms are 25s already so you’d think an impressive win would see something below this as an immediate reaction. Anything other than an impressive win and you’re not going to press the button. While I agree the trainer will inflate the price or set a limit on how low the price would go I suspect the price on the day would be determined also by what she and others do between Saturday and the festival. They paid a lot of money for her and were/are expecting big things. The owners alone may give her a little credibility in punters eyes. At least if nothing else it’s a different discussion from which one of Mullins is going to win which can only be stretched so far imo.

[Kevloaf]

Some firms are 25s already so you’d think an impressive win would see something below this as an immediate reaction. Anything other than an impressive win and you’re not going to press the button. While I agree the trainer will inflate the price or set a limit on how low the price would go I suspect the price on the day would be determined also by what she and others do between Saturday and the festival. They paid a lot of money for her and were/are expecting big things. The owners alone may give her a little credibility in punters eyes. At least if nothing else it’s a different discussion from which one of Mullins is going to win which can only be stretched so far imo.

The reason for that Mullins monopoly though is blatent, you'd need a proper star to have one better than what he'll have.... a la Honeysuckle or Epatante, and neither of them actually managed it.

Does Rose of Arcadia have the right profile for you?

I backed her before first run, obviously disappointing as you say, but it's just such a long way back for her now that even if she does win impressively, you'll get a very fair price still, as the market won't react too strongly.... so is it worth the risk pre next run, when you know she'll probably be a fair price afterwards when you have much more information?



I acknowledge it is a bit boring discussing only the Mullins runners, but this race by it's very nature is boring enough, we can only discuss what's there really....they've created a race in a division that an already dominant trainer is dominant...can't apologise for that being where the conversation flows.

[Rooster Booster]

The reason for that Mullins monopoly though is blatent, you'd need a proper star to have one better than what he'll have.... a la Honeysuckle or Epatante, and neither of them actually managed it.

Does Rose of Arcadia have the right profile for you?

I backed her before first run, obviously disappointing as you say, but it's just such a long way back for her now that even if she does win impressively, you'll get a very fair price still, as the market won't react too strongly.... so is it worth the risk pre next run, when you know she'll probably be a fair price afterwards when you have much more information?



I acknowledge it is a bit boring discussing only the Mullins runners, but this race by it's very nature is boring enough, we can only discuss what's there really....they've created a race in a division that an already dominant trainer is dominant...can't apologise for that being where the conversation flows.

I think sometimes things like profile and connections and trends or whether Its an ex bumper ex flat ex french trained ex ptp ex girlfriend/boyfriend and all those important things get in the way just alittle of the actual horse. Is it the right profile. If it travels like a dream, jumps like a dream and demonstrates that lto was a wind problem and sluices up then that can make it the right profile and I doubt firms are going to block her out in running. if people feel that 40s is not worth taking if it jumps the last 20 lengths clear then I can understand that decision as they may conclude in that moment that the cut may not be significant and in any case she would have to be Pegasus to beat the Mullins brigade. Some on here may take a different view. Personally in that moment I am just focusing on the horse and the performance I have just witnessed and asking myself do I want her on my side at 40s.remember I am not suggesting people back her now but to hover over the button because in that moment I have new information that suggests the original reputation and price tag and prominent position in the market were justified.

All through this forum I have seen countless examples where people are trying to build a book or beat a price. My intention was to provide a potential opportunity to do that for a horse that because she is not trained by a trainer whose horses are understandably explored to the nth degree, might not be on peoples radar.

all this is likely to be rendered academic as she will no doubt run like a drain.

[Kevloaf]

I think sometimes things like profile and connections and trends or whether Its an ex bumper ex flat ex french trained ex ptp ex girlfriend/boyfriend and all those important things get in the way just alittle of the actual horse. Is it the right profile. If it travels like a dream, jumps like a dream and demonstrates that lto was a wind problem and sluices up then that can make it the right profile and I doubt firms are going to block her out in running. if people feel that 40s is not worth taking if it jumps the last 20 lengths clear then I can understand that decision as they may conclude in that moment that the cut may not be significant and in any case she would have to be Pegasus to beat the Mullins brigade. Some on here may take a different view. Personally in that moment I am just focusing on the horse and the performance I have just witnessed and asking myself do I want her on my side at 40s.remember I am not suggesting people back her now but to hover over the button because in that moment I have new information that suggests the original reputation and price tag and prominent position in the market were justified.

All through this forum I have seen countless examples where people are trying to build a book or beat a price. My intention was to provide a potential opportunity to do that for a horse that because she is not trained by a trainer whose horses are understandably explored to the nth degree, might not be on peoples radar.

all this is likely to be rendered academic as she will no doubt run like a drain.

I actually misread the hover over in running bit, I totally see what you're saying. I will hover over hopefully

[ryanh97]

If The Glancing Queen wins the Challow against the boys today, what price does she become here?

[FinalFurlong91]

Her bumper form behind envoi, thyme hill and Abacadabras does read well

Not so good last season behind ferny hollow though

[Istabraq]

If The Glancing Queen wins the Challow against the boys today, what price does she become here?

Is there any risk she heads to Ballymore/Potato with the claim ?

[dannycraigpirates]

Panic attack won very nicely there in that handicap. Still haven’t ripped up my 50/1 ticket on her for this

Whilst she might not trouble some of the Irish horses, I think she deserves to take her place in the race....

[Ray]

Has anyone got any latest news on SWIW just having a little look at where i stand with my ante post and realise if it wasnt for her i would be sat on some nice tickets, looking for a bit of reassurance/confirmation etc???!

[Middle_Of_March]

The reason for that Mullins monopoly though is blatent, you'd need a proper star to have one better than what he'll have.... a la Honeysuckle or Epatante, and neither of them actually managed it.

Does Rose of Arcadia have the right profile for you?

I backed her before first run, obviously disappointing as you say, but it's just such a long way back for her now that even if she does win impressively, you'll get a very fair price still, as the market won't react too strongly.... so is it worth the risk pre next run, when you know she'll probably be a fair price afterwards when you have much more information?



I acknowledge it is a bit boring discussing only the Mullins runners, but this race by it's very nature is boring enough, we can only discuss what's there really....they've created a race in a division that an already dominant trainer is dominant...can't apologise for that being where the conversation flows.

Epatante in the Mares Novice Hurdle should be like Ch**pagne F**er on here - never mentioned!

How the f**k can she get beat that day and then go and win a champion Hurdle the year after. 11 of her first 12 races she won.. including a champion hurdle but she can’t win the worst renewal of any race at the festival ever. Absolutely terrible race and she got beat. Some of us had double figure prices. Henderson seemed to think she couldn’t be beat. I thought she was a good thing.

Kev it still angers me.

I propose it becomes a CF situation and FJ refuses to mention it in all future discussions of this race..

[PresentingPercy]

Epatante in the Mares Novice Hurdle should be like Ch**pagne F**er on here - never mentioned!

How the f**k can she get beat that day and then go and win a champion Hurdle the year after. 11 of her first 12 races she won.. including a champion hurdle but she can’t win the worst renewal of any race at the festival ever. Absolutely terrible race and she got beat. Some of us had double figure prices. Henderson seemed to think she couldn’t be beat. I thought she was a good thing.

Kev it still angers me.

I propose it becomes a CF situation and FJ refuses to mention it in all future discussions of this race..

I remember Rory Delargy or Kevin Blake remarking before on a podcast how bad Nicky's horses run first time out in a hood - she wore the hood fto in the mares novice, it was a prime example.

[SAMCRO]

Hook up in at Fairyhouse 3rd January. This race is looking like backing gauloise and hook up isn’t it?