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As I am still relatively new here, I am not sure on the protocol so feel free to delete if inappropriate. I write a preview for the big meetings (Cheltenham, National, Epsom and Ascot) for a bit of fun and thought it may be worth posting it onto here. Been doing it for years - originally posted on to the Ipswich Footy Forum of all places. As i said, I wasn't sure if it was the right place to post but it's always worth a try. Let me know what you think.
Cheltenham Festival Day 1
Here we go! The festival is here. The pinnacle of racing. The Olympics of our sport is upon us. The waiting is over. As always, my big meeting previews are back. The best week of sport you will see all year. My first festival at the track too.
1:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle
It’s time for the Cheltenham roar as the week begins with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. I feel slightly unlucky in this race as I backed If The Cap Fits to win any race at the festival at 16/1 and was in to 9/2 second favourite when suffering a setback a fortnight ago – forcing him to miss the race. As has been the norm over the last few years, Willie Mullins trains the hot favourite for the race. Last year, the lightly raced Melon went off at the head of the market – beaten only by Labaik. In each of the last five seasons, Mullins has had a winner or the second in each running. Three of those winners (and a second with Min in 2016), were trained by American Rich Ricci in his famous Pink and Green spotted colours. The duo of Mullins and Ricci pair up here with favourite GETABIRD @ 15/8. He won the Moscow Flyer in devastating fashion last time and Mullins tends to send his top Novices at that race which bodes well here. The 6 year old destroyed Mengli Khan with a blistering turn of foot and the latter surely won’t reverse the form today. The soft ground ought to suit the favourite and he will clearly be hard to beat. Kalashnikov is a horse I’ve backed in his last two races. He was very green in the Tolworth behind Summerhill Boy but improved last time to win the Betfair Hurdle on awful ground. His trainer has said he will improve for about 10lbs from those runnings if the ground came up good to soft. That looks very unlikely though with the rain bucketing it down over the weekend. I can see him being beaten by Getabird’s turn of foot as they swing for home. The fact the race is on the Old Course and he will kick from the front should very much suit the favourite. I do expect Kalashnikov to reverse that aforementioned Sandown form with Summerhill Boy but not to win. First Flow has been backed for this since the weekend’s downpour and has fair each way claims. Rich Ricci has said his second string’s chances for this has been ruined by the ground so we can put a line through Sharjah who was well fancied for this by some a few weeks ago. Claimantakinforgan is probably the best of the rest. Unless there’s another Labaik in the field…
Note – Skybet, Betway and Coral are offering your money back as a free bet if you lose on this race up to £20, £10 and £25 respectively.
2:10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy
Despite the field only attracting five runners for this, it’s the best Arkle quality wise for many a year. Footpad versus Saint Calvados versus PETIT MOUCHOIR @ 7/2. The former has transitioned from hurdles fantastically and looks a future chasing star. He’s made just one jumping error in his three chasing starts this season and won the Irish Arkle last time, beating Petit Mouchoir in the process. The latter ran a mighty race that day to be beaten by only five lengths by Footpad and was given an easy time down the straight after his long lay-off from the track. There’s not a single person who doesn’t expect the Henry De Bromhead inmate to, at the very least, finish a lot closer this time. Last season the two faced off over hurdles three times. On every occasion, including in the Champion Hurdle over this trip at the festival, Petit Mouchoir finished in front of the Willie Mullins horse. I took 7/1 before that race for this and I am delighted with that price now he has shortened. Footpad didn’t look to handle the tracks undulations all that well last year and, at 5/4, I’m happy to oppose him here. On the soft ground, Saint Calvados looks a huge danger. Like Footpad, he likes to race prominently meaning the early pace angle will make this a rapid 2m race. He tore Diego Du Charmil apart off the front in similar conditions at Warwick by 22 lengths and could be anything. If the pair take each other on early as expected, I could set the race up for Petit Mouchoir who will sit on their tails waiting to strike up the Cheltenham hill. Brain Power is the most overrated horse in training in my opinion and I absolutely couldn’t have him making the frame here. Robinshill is frankly a mile out of his depth and will complete in his own time.
Note – Paddy Power are offering your money back as a free bet up to £10 if the favourite wins any race on day 1 at the Festival.
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase
Gold Present has been fantastic in both of his starts this season in decent company but would need a career best to win a race this competitive carrying top weight. The ground may have gone against him as well here. The same can be said for Sizing Codelco who is at his best on Spring ground. The same can’t be said for Yala Enki who loves the mud and stays all day. The worry with him is whether that Grand National trial recently would have taken too much out of him. It surely has. Another who will relish the soft ground is SHANTOU FLYER @ 20/1 each way who loves Cheltenham and must go well at a big price. This could become a battle though which may not suit as he’s finished second a whopping nine times. He is ultra-consistent though and is a solid each way angle for this. Singlefarmpayment finished second in this last year when well fancied but has looked disappointing this season. Even if he has been laid out for this, as the market seems to suggest, it would take a massive performance for him to win this. Though I do think that this renewal isn’t as good as previous years’. Coo Star Sivola gets into this off 10st 12lb which makes him a danger based on his romp at Exeter last time. His record in big field handicaps isn’t great though and he’s beatable despite his liking for Cheltenham. A second dart at the race goes to BEWARE THE BEAR @ 14/1 each way who is another consistent sort who likes soft ground and will stay. I rarely back two in a race but I fancy both of my two to outrun their prices and both are solid each way angles.
3:30 - Champion Hurdle
Buveur D’Air won this last year and the odds-on favourite is the obvious winner again. He’s not had to be ridden in any of his three wins this season. He has been beaten only once over hurdles and that was when third to Altior and Min in the 2016 Supreme – arguably the best novice hurdle of all time. Faugheen ‘the machine’ has questions to answer after his second last time and being pulled up at Christmas. He will be odds against for only the second time since May 2013. At his peak, he would win this doing cartwheels. It would be great to see him win but it’s probably more likely that this will be his last ever race. If it is, it’s been a pleasure to watch the greatest 2m hurdler since Istabraq strut his stuff. My Tent Or Yours was my each way bet for this last season when placing at 16s on the day. I also had 40s antepost to a lesser extent. He’s been better this season and is a solid each way play at 12/1. He has finished second in three previous runnings of this and it would be nice if he was to go one better. Yorkhill has been a nutjob inside an enigma this season. He’s as talented as he is bonkers but he isn’t one to trust on what we have seen from him so far this season. Melon has never convinced me that he is up to the hype whilst Ch’tibello has been a horse who never wins when I back him. I can’t have either of those here. Elgin has been improving and won well last tie but still needs to improve for a race at this level. John Constable was no match for the favourite last time and Charli Parcs finds nothing off the bridle. The selection for the race for me is WICKLOW BRAVE each way @ 16/1. He can be top class on his day over hurdles and on the flat. He was extremely eyecatching in last year’s race when losing 15 lengths at the start but being back in the race with two hurdles to jump. In fact, in running, only Buveur D’Air looked to be going better at the top of the hill. Whilst he tired up the run in, he showed enough in that to suggest being the each way play totday and will be one that we know copes with the ground. Identity Thief, Verdana Blue and Mick Jazz all have lots to find to be competitive.
4:10 - David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Whilst the race isn’t as mouthwartering as last year’s triple threat was, it’s still a decent race with one current superstar and one possible future superstar lurking in the midst. It is also the race that I am probably in the best position in of the entire week. I have APPLES JADE @ 4/6 in some very decent looking multiples with some horses who are now short later in the week. She ought to win really. She would win the Stayers Hurdle in my opinion but they gave her the easier task of defending her title in the Mares instead. La Bague Au Roi goes here and she is a bit of an enigma. Sometimes she looks a bit clumsy and makes hard work of it and then on other occasions she can be just brilliant – like at Ascot last time. The biggest danger though is a mare who would be a decent winner for me at 14/1 from the start of the season to win any race at the festival – Benie Des Dieux. As well as that bet, I took some of the 5/1 Paddy Power were offering a week ago on her to win the race in the ‘without Apples Jade’ market. She is now 7/2 to win the race outright which leaves me in a fantastic position – even if I say so myself. She tackles hurdles for the first time since joining Mullins and Ricci and will be short if the planned Mares Chase race comes into fruition for 2019. She stays all day over fences and jumps them into submission. I expect her to do the same to this field – other than to the brilliant Apples Jade. The forecast could be a decent bet here. Jer’s Girl is an each way shout but it looks a race that will be dominated by the market principals.
4:50 - National Hunt Chase
I’ll be honest to you good people now: this is the race over the course of the week I have spent the least time on. It’s always a nightmare looking for the winner and the worsening ground will further that point. Four miles on soft ground – a dour stayer is needed. But what will stay? That is the question. With no way of knowing, it takes guessing the horses running styles to work out what will handle the step up in trip. I think I have found two. Whether they have the class to win, who knows? But they should at least make it round so are probably decent each way bets. For me, it’s a small punting race (probably only a tenner each) and they will both be win bets. The first of the two is MRS PARFOIS @ 8/1. Anthony Honeyball winning a Cheltenham race would be a fitting tribute after the shocking death of his stable star Fountains Windfall on the gallops a few weeks ago. He has a live contender here as his filly seems to have no change of gears but gallops relentlessly from the front. There will be no need to up the tempo as this will be a race where they just gallop for as long as they can. It won’t be a pretty watch and a fair few will be pulled up. I expect Mrs Parfois to go off early and set the tempo she likes to go at and let the rest follow. If Will Biddick can settle her into a rhythm, I think she will run a decent race. The 7lb she receives for being a mare is going to be priceless up the hill and she must surely go close. The other horse I like for this is KEEPER HILL @ 10/1 who, to my reading of the form, will relish the soft surface. The heavier it gets, the more that could suit him. He fell last time at Musselburgh when absolutely on the snaff and I like his attitude. He rarely runs a bad race and seems to be getting better. His profile fits the type you want for this race and I think he’s a very generous price at 10/1. In fact, I can’t see him going off at that price as he will surely shorten. Jury Duty has been talked up for this for a while and I can see why. He gallops for fun and is a dour stayer. But I don’t like his price. 7/2 is very skinny. Mossback represents Gigginstown who won this last year and he appears to have a touch of class. No Comment was absolutely paceless last time and that may actually be a plus for him here. If they go off too quick, the race will fall into his lap as he will just carry on going. A tough penultimate race for the punters on day 1.
5:30 – Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
Barney Dwan ran a blinder last year in the Pertempts final when beaten only by this year’s RSA favourite Presenting Percy. A repeat of that run would make him go very close here in this novice chase. De Plotting Shed has been a talking horse for this race for a while and appears to have been aimed at this all season. He looks on the short side now though and any value in his price has gone long before today. Rather Be knows how to win but has gone up the weights accordingly whilst Ballyhill probably wants further. The vote though goes to ANY SECOND NOW @ 13/2 for JP McManus. He makes his handicap debut here after running well all season. In his last four runs, he’s been beaten only by Footpad, Petit Mouchoir, Monalee, Presenting Percy and Invitation Only. All five of these horses are favourite or second favourites in novice chases this week. I make Any Second Now value here at his current price after taking 7/1 last week and I expect the Irish to steam into his price throughout the day.
Bets:
1:30 – GETABIRD @ 15/8 (NAP)
2:10 – PETIT MOUCHOIR @ 7/1 & 7/2
2:50 – SHANTOU FLYER @ 20/1 e/w & BEWARE THE BEAR @ 14/1 e/w
3:30 – WICKLOW BRAVE @ 16/1 e/w
4:10 – APPLES JADE @ 6/4 & 4/6 (multiples only) & BENIE DES DIEUX @ 14/1 & BENIE DES DIEUX @ 5/1 without Apples Jade
4:50 – MRS PARFOIS @ 8/1 & KEEPER HILL @ 10/1
5:30 – ANY SECOND NOW @ 7/1 & 13/2
Cheltenham Festival Day 1
Here we go! The festival is here. The pinnacle of racing. The Olympics of our sport is upon us. The waiting is over. As always, my big meeting previews are back. The best week of sport you will see all year. My first festival at the track too.
1:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle
It’s time for the Cheltenham roar as the week begins with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. I feel slightly unlucky in this race as I backed If The Cap Fits to win any race at the festival at 16/1 and was in to 9/2 second favourite when suffering a setback a fortnight ago – forcing him to miss the race. As has been the norm over the last few years, Willie Mullins trains the hot favourite for the race. Last year, the lightly raced Melon went off at the head of the market – beaten only by Labaik. In each of the last five seasons, Mullins has had a winner or the second in each running. Three of those winners (and a second with Min in 2016), were trained by American Rich Ricci in his famous Pink and Green spotted colours. The duo of Mullins and Ricci pair up here with favourite GETABIRD @ 15/8. He won the Moscow Flyer in devastating fashion last time and Mullins tends to send his top Novices at that race which bodes well here. The 6 year old destroyed Mengli Khan with a blistering turn of foot and the latter surely won’t reverse the form today. The soft ground ought to suit the favourite and he will clearly be hard to beat. Kalashnikov is a horse I’ve backed in his last two races. He was very green in the Tolworth behind Summerhill Boy but improved last time to win the Betfair Hurdle on awful ground. His trainer has said he will improve for about 10lbs from those runnings if the ground came up good to soft. That looks very unlikely though with the rain bucketing it down over the weekend. I can see him being beaten by Getabird’s turn of foot as they swing for home. The fact the race is on the Old Course and he will kick from the front should very much suit the favourite. I do expect Kalashnikov to reverse that aforementioned Sandown form with Summerhill Boy but not to win. First Flow has been backed for this since the weekend’s downpour and has fair each way claims. Rich Ricci has said his second string’s chances for this has been ruined by the ground so we can put a line through Sharjah who was well fancied for this by some a few weeks ago. Claimantakinforgan is probably the best of the rest. Unless there’s another Labaik in the field…
Note – Skybet, Betway and Coral are offering your money back as a free bet if you lose on this race up to £20, £10 and £25 respectively.
2:10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy
Despite the field only attracting five runners for this, it’s the best Arkle quality wise for many a year. Footpad versus Saint Calvados versus PETIT MOUCHOIR @ 7/2. The former has transitioned from hurdles fantastically and looks a future chasing star. He’s made just one jumping error in his three chasing starts this season and won the Irish Arkle last time, beating Petit Mouchoir in the process. The latter ran a mighty race that day to be beaten by only five lengths by Footpad and was given an easy time down the straight after his long lay-off from the track. There’s not a single person who doesn’t expect the Henry De Bromhead inmate to, at the very least, finish a lot closer this time. Last season the two faced off over hurdles three times. On every occasion, including in the Champion Hurdle over this trip at the festival, Petit Mouchoir finished in front of the Willie Mullins horse. I took 7/1 before that race for this and I am delighted with that price now he has shortened. Footpad didn’t look to handle the tracks undulations all that well last year and, at 5/4, I’m happy to oppose him here. On the soft ground, Saint Calvados looks a huge danger. Like Footpad, he likes to race prominently meaning the early pace angle will make this a rapid 2m race. He tore Diego Du Charmil apart off the front in similar conditions at Warwick by 22 lengths and could be anything. If the pair take each other on early as expected, I could set the race up for Petit Mouchoir who will sit on their tails waiting to strike up the Cheltenham hill. Brain Power is the most overrated horse in training in my opinion and I absolutely couldn’t have him making the frame here. Robinshill is frankly a mile out of his depth and will complete in his own time.
Note – Paddy Power are offering your money back as a free bet up to £10 if the favourite wins any race on day 1 at the Festival.
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase
Gold Present has been fantastic in both of his starts this season in decent company but would need a career best to win a race this competitive carrying top weight. The ground may have gone against him as well here. The same can be said for Sizing Codelco who is at his best on Spring ground. The same can’t be said for Yala Enki who loves the mud and stays all day. The worry with him is whether that Grand National trial recently would have taken too much out of him. It surely has. Another who will relish the soft ground is SHANTOU FLYER @ 20/1 each way who loves Cheltenham and must go well at a big price. This could become a battle though which may not suit as he’s finished second a whopping nine times. He is ultra-consistent though and is a solid each way angle for this. Singlefarmpayment finished second in this last year when well fancied but has looked disappointing this season. Even if he has been laid out for this, as the market seems to suggest, it would take a massive performance for him to win this. Though I do think that this renewal isn’t as good as previous years’. Coo Star Sivola gets into this off 10st 12lb which makes him a danger based on his romp at Exeter last time. His record in big field handicaps isn’t great though and he’s beatable despite his liking for Cheltenham. A second dart at the race goes to BEWARE THE BEAR @ 14/1 each way who is another consistent sort who likes soft ground and will stay. I rarely back two in a race but I fancy both of my two to outrun their prices and both are solid each way angles.
3:30 - Champion Hurdle
Buveur D’Air won this last year and the odds-on favourite is the obvious winner again. He’s not had to be ridden in any of his three wins this season. He has been beaten only once over hurdles and that was when third to Altior and Min in the 2016 Supreme – arguably the best novice hurdle of all time. Faugheen ‘the machine’ has questions to answer after his second last time and being pulled up at Christmas. He will be odds against for only the second time since May 2013. At his peak, he would win this doing cartwheels. It would be great to see him win but it’s probably more likely that this will be his last ever race. If it is, it’s been a pleasure to watch the greatest 2m hurdler since Istabraq strut his stuff. My Tent Or Yours was my each way bet for this last season when placing at 16s on the day. I also had 40s antepost to a lesser extent. He’s been better this season and is a solid each way play at 12/1. He has finished second in three previous runnings of this and it would be nice if he was to go one better. Yorkhill has been a nutjob inside an enigma this season. He’s as talented as he is bonkers but he isn’t one to trust on what we have seen from him so far this season. Melon has never convinced me that he is up to the hype whilst Ch’tibello has been a horse who never wins when I back him. I can’t have either of those here. Elgin has been improving and won well last tie but still needs to improve for a race at this level. John Constable was no match for the favourite last time and Charli Parcs finds nothing off the bridle. The selection for the race for me is WICKLOW BRAVE each way @ 16/1. He can be top class on his day over hurdles and on the flat. He was extremely eyecatching in last year’s race when losing 15 lengths at the start but being back in the race with two hurdles to jump. In fact, in running, only Buveur D’Air looked to be going better at the top of the hill. Whilst he tired up the run in, he showed enough in that to suggest being the each way play totday and will be one that we know copes with the ground. Identity Thief, Verdana Blue and Mick Jazz all have lots to find to be competitive.
4:10 - David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Whilst the race isn’t as mouthwartering as last year’s triple threat was, it’s still a decent race with one current superstar and one possible future superstar lurking in the midst. It is also the race that I am probably in the best position in of the entire week. I have APPLES JADE @ 4/6 in some very decent looking multiples with some horses who are now short later in the week. She ought to win really. She would win the Stayers Hurdle in my opinion but they gave her the easier task of defending her title in the Mares instead. La Bague Au Roi goes here and she is a bit of an enigma. Sometimes she looks a bit clumsy and makes hard work of it and then on other occasions she can be just brilliant – like at Ascot last time. The biggest danger though is a mare who would be a decent winner for me at 14/1 from the start of the season to win any race at the festival – Benie Des Dieux. As well as that bet, I took some of the 5/1 Paddy Power were offering a week ago on her to win the race in the ‘without Apples Jade’ market. She is now 7/2 to win the race outright which leaves me in a fantastic position – even if I say so myself. She tackles hurdles for the first time since joining Mullins and Ricci and will be short if the planned Mares Chase race comes into fruition for 2019. She stays all day over fences and jumps them into submission. I expect her to do the same to this field – other than to the brilliant Apples Jade. The forecast could be a decent bet here. Jer’s Girl is an each way shout but it looks a race that will be dominated by the market principals.
4:50 - National Hunt Chase
I’ll be honest to you good people now: this is the race over the course of the week I have spent the least time on. It’s always a nightmare looking for the winner and the worsening ground will further that point. Four miles on soft ground – a dour stayer is needed. But what will stay? That is the question. With no way of knowing, it takes guessing the horses running styles to work out what will handle the step up in trip. I think I have found two. Whether they have the class to win, who knows? But they should at least make it round so are probably decent each way bets. For me, it’s a small punting race (probably only a tenner each) and they will both be win bets. The first of the two is MRS PARFOIS @ 8/1. Anthony Honeyball winning a Cheltenham race would be a fitting tribute after the shocking death of his stable star Fountains Windfall on the gallops a few weeks ago. He has a live contender here as his filly seems to have no change of gears but gallops relentlessly from the front. There will be no need to up the tempo as this will be a race where they just gallop for as long as they can. It won’t be a pretty watch and a fair few will be pulled up. I expect Mrs Parfois to go off early and set the tempo she likes to go at and let the rest follow. If Will Biddick can settle her into a rhythm, I think she will run a decent race. The 7lb she receives for being a mare is going to be priceless up the hill and she must surely go close. The other horse I like for this is KEEPER HILL @ 10/1 who, to my reading of the form, will relish the soft surface. The heavier it gets, the more that could suit him. He fell last time at Musselburgh when absolutely on the snaff and I like his attitude. He rarely runs a bad race and seems to be getting better. His profile fits the type you want for this race and I think he’s a very generous price at 10/1. In fact, I can’t see him going off at that price as he will surely shorten. Jury Duty has been talked up for this for a while and I can see why. He gallops for fun and is a dour stayer. But I don’t like his price. 7/2 is very skinny. Mossback represents Gigginstown who won this last year and he appears to have a touch of class. No Comment was absolutely paceless last time and that may actually be a plus for him here. If they go off too quick, the race will fall into his lap as he will just carry on going. A tough penultimate race for the punters on day 1.
5:30 – Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
Barney Dwan ran a blinder last year in the Pertempts final when beaten only by this year’s RSA favourite Presenting Percy. A repeat of that run would make him go very close here in this novice chase. De Plotting Shed has been a talking horse for this race for a while and appears to have been aimed at this all season. He looks on the short side now though and any value in his price has gone long before today. Rather Be knows how to win but has gone up the weights accordingly whilst Ballyhill probably wants further. The vote though goes to ANY SECOND NOW @ 13/2 for JP McManus. He makes his handicap debut here after running well all season. In his last four runs, he’s been beaten only by Footpad, Petit Mouchoir, Monalee, Presenting Percy and Invitation Only. All five of these horses are favourite or second favourites in novice chases this week. I make Any Second Now value here at his current price after taking 7/1 last week and I expect the Irish to steam into his price throughout the day.
Bets:
1:30 – GETABIRD @ 15/8 (NAP)
2:10 – PETIT MOUCHOIR @ 7/1 & 7/2
2:50 – SHANTOU FLYER @ 20/1 e/w & BEWARE THE BEAR @ 14/1 e/w
3:30 – WICKLOW BRAVE @ 16/1 e/w
4:10 – APPLES JADE @ 6/4 & 4/6 (multiples only) & BENIE DES DIEUX @ 14/1 & BENIE DES DIEUX @ 5/1 without Apples Jade
4:50 – MRS PARFOIS @ 8/1 & KEEPER HILL @ 10/1
5:30 – ANY SECOND NOW @ 7/1 & 13/2
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