Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Marty973]

I don't get it, why would he be entered for a hurdle and a chase? They want to decide on Wednesday night his plan for the season, seems really odd unless I am missing something?

That’s what confused me too RC. The decision must already be made.

[charlie]

Be interesting to see what the markets do on Monday / Tuesday because surely stable staff and connections will know in advance and be smashing in

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Be interesting to see what the markets do on Monday / Tuesday because surely stable staff and connections will know in advance and be smashing in

Can't see him going any shorter in the Champion Hurdle, his price now pretty much reflects him going there, obviously could shorten for one of the Novice chases though

[Scooby91]

Be interesting to see what the markets do on Monday / Tuesday because surely stable staff and connections will know in advance and be smashing in

They've already done that.. his yard sponsors have just been picking up free money for the last month every time they've said it's not decided and someone risks one of the novice chases at top price

[Kevloaf]

Can't see him going any shorter in the Champion Hurdle, his price now pretty much reflects him going there, obviously could shorten for one of the Novice chases though

Wishful thinking that they wouldn't cut his price now it is confirmed

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Wishful thinking that they wouldn't cut his price now it is confirmed

Really surprised, I'm not normally one for laying but if he dots up on Friday and can be traded at 5/2 I'd be very tempted

[billymag]

Ive already layed off 75% of my stake on Samcro as I think he's priced up as if NRNB. Happy to lay to get stake back if price looks too short and to me he does.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Ive already layed off 75% of my stake on Samcro as I think he's priced up as if NRNB. Happy to lay to get stake back if price looks too short and to me he does.

Nice one Billy, great call on the target, laying 75% of your stake back looks a shrewd move

[JackieMoon33]

Potentially interesting novice Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. The season is really beginning to warm up now with the Down Royal cards too.

[Kevloaf]

Potentially interesting novice Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. The season is really beginning to warm up now with the Down Royal cards too.

What sort of approach do you take with your punting JM?

[JackieMoon33]

What sort of approach do you take with your punting JM?

This is just my personal approach and I have nothing against alternative views - to each their own.

I don't really have the time or money to tie up vast sums in ante post bets until March. Because of this I don't like to form a book or have multiple runners in every race. I also like the challenge of being able to pick an ante post winner from a small selection of bets on horses I have chosen to follow. I appreciate that forming a book can almost guarantee a reasonable return, but for me it reduces the amount of judgement required as it comes down to the probability of having mass runners at decent prices and takes the skill out of it for me. I also have to put a lot of time into my job that pays the bills and therefore don't have time to keep on top of everything going on in the racing world whilst monitoring twitter and the exchanges.

I do back some horses as singles when I really have a strong opinion but most of my ante post bets are a bit of fun in chasing the dream of a life changer. I take my shortlist of 2-3 horses for the Novice races (these are the best for ant post prices) and place various combination bets when I have spare money or if my opinion goes stronger for any. I've yet to land the life changer (no surprise) but I like to see my shortlist develop over the season whilst keeping my investments to a minimum. I have respect for those with the time and money to form their books and guarantee profits but that's not for me anymore.

[Kevloaf]

This is just my personal approach and I have nothing against alternative views - to each their own.

I don't really have the time or money to tie up vast sums in ante post bets until March. Because of this I don't like to form a book or have multiple runners in every race. I also like the challenge of being able to pick an ante post winner from a small selection of bets on horses I have chosen to follow. I appreciate that forming a book can almost guarantee a reasonable return, but for me it reduces the amount of judgement required as it comes down to the probability of having mass runners at decent prices and takes the skill out of it for me. I also have to put a lot of time into my job that pays the bills and therefore don't have time to keep on top of everything going on in the racing world whilst monitoring twitter and the exchanges.

I do back some horses as singles when I really have a strong opinion but most of my ante post bets are a bit of fun in chasing the dream of a life changer. I take my shortlist of 2-3 horses for the Novice races (these are the best for ant post prices) and place various combination bets when I have spare money or if my opinion goes stronger for any. I've yet to land the life changer (no surprise) but I like to see my shortlist develop over the season whilst keeping my investments to a minimum. I have respect for those with the time and money to form their books and guarantee profits but that's not for me anymore.

I don't think anyone will take offense to that JM, I was just interested as you seem to have a good grasp of the breeding and some 'less exposed' (handicap?) horses before they run and wondered how you went about it.

I'd love to see with what I know now compared to when I started whether I'd still have a good festival if I limited myself to one for a race, or just backing on the day of the race - I'd like to think so, but I agree it is much harder.

Still plenty of skill in other approaches though, but time-dependant as you say.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Really surprised, I'm not normally one for laying but if he dots up on Friday and can be traded at 5/2 I'd be very tempted

Crikey he's already 5/2, could be less than 2s if he wins on Friday

[Kevloaf]

I hope people have dodged a bullet today with the Samcro 'news' today. (Surprisingly) It has only cost me 3 pts in non runners (all for the RSA) which was my initial strong fancy so I feel I've come out of today pretty well!

I do have Samcro in a lot of "any race" bets/multiples as I am sure many do too, and what I thought was the 'most exciting' of those does is Samcro/Laurina/Altior ANY RACE 25/1...

Disappointingly - you can still get 50/1 for the CH/Mares/CC treble which does render that bet pretty rubbish even at this stage!

[thistlecracker]

I hope people have dodged a bullet today with the Samcro 'news' today. (Surprisingly) It has only cost me 3 pts in non runners (all for the RSA) which was my initial strong fancy so I feel I've come out of today pretty well!

I do have Samcro in a lot of "any race" bets/multiples as I am sure many do too, and what I thought was the 'most exciting' of those does is Samcro/Laurina/Altior ANY RACE 25/1...

Disappointingly - you can still get 50/1 for the CH/Mares/CC treble which does render that bet pretty rubbish even at this stage!

From a racing perspective I would love laurina to line up in the CH but considering I have a few points on the 25/1 treble as well, I wouldn’t mind the mares route.