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haha...fair point as I appreciate it doesn't take much to move a price, but as an indicator we could just say been cut across the board by all leading bookmakers. For reference:
Kalshnikov 14s into 8s
Santnini 12 into 8s
Samcro 8s into 4s
Bookies have the backbone of a slug (plus many other characteristics). Those cuts are probably just a few hundred based on trainer comments. I'd have thought Betfair turnover might be a better indicator.
Bookies have the backbone of a slug (plus many other characteristics). Those cuts are probably just a few hundred based on trainer comments. I'd have thought Betfair turnover might be a better indicator.
Fair points Archie. I know there has been money queuing up on Betfair at the biggest highstreet bookie price available for both Kalshnikov and Santini since their initial price cut.
The Kalshnikov Arkle price in particular dropped very quickly over a couple of days, which makes me think that one was more than just trainer comments as at that stage nothing was made public about what Kalashnikov's likely destination might be.
Melon is a shorter price on Betfair for the Arkle than he is for the Champion Hurdle now...
9/1 for the Arkle with PP (12s available elsewhere) and PP have him 8/1 (joint top price with loads) for the CH.
That interest anyone? Melon going chasing would be a BIG dent in the Kalashnikov bandwagon
The only horse and market I check daily. Dosent look like he's going novice chasing yet to me. I think that lay was a mistake and meant to be on the back side.
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The only horse and market I check daily. Dosent look like he's going novice chasing yet to me. I think that lay was a mistake and meant to be on the back side.
I haven't looked but has there always been a bigger price to back Melon CH than Arkle?
I haven't looked but has there always been a bigger price to back Melon CH than Arkle?
I'm ready to get all jiggy with a Melon.
Yes he was cut by powers to 9s about 2 weeks ago. But not pushed out at all for the champion. Id have wanted to see him pushed out for me to take the risk. He's the one I want in the arkle, It looks possible but it also dosent make too much sense with how close he went in the champion and he's not the finished article.
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Yes he was cut by powers to 9s about 2 weeks ago. But not pushed out at all for the champion. Id have wanted to see him pushed out for me to take the risk. He's the one I want in the arkle, It looks possible but it also dosent make too much sense with how close he went in the champion and he's not the finished article.
Yeah absolutely. Melon looks quite clearly the best Mullins (and more importantly Ruby ride) for the CH at this stage... so if they start backing Laurina I think that "free's up" Melon. I'd have a related double on them as soon as it looked like he was going chasing.
Option 1 leaves Willie with no obvious horse for the CH and option 2 the same for the Arkle. Any value in either treble?
You'd need to have a possible BDD to the Gold Cup albeit unlikely...
THe problem is injury .... one of them gets injured, and Laurina could go from CH target to Mares?
I also give Melon no chance in the CH so would put me off that one
I do however have a yankee on Annamix (supreme), Laurina (Mares), BDD (Ryanair) and Presenting Percy which was placed on 16th of March, which was Gold Cup day this year ... so I clearly like parts of option 2
Last edited by Kevloaf; 15 October 2018, 10:04 PM.
Well if one of them gets injured your treble is down anyway. I agree option 1 is more attractive but seems to be plenty of talk of BDD going chasing, could obviously come back for the Mares but just about enough to put me off a speculative punt at the moment
Melon is a shorter price on Betfair for the Arkle than he is for the Champion Hurdle now...
9/1 for the Arkle with PP (12s available elsewhere) and PP have him 8/1 (joint top price with loads) for the CH.
That interest anyone? Melon going chasing would be a BIG dent in the Kalashnikov bandwagon
It’s an interesting market comparison, I actually had a response written out about how Melon at 8/1 behind Samcro and BDA for the CH is really quite skinny and suggests he’s staying over hurdles.
However I’ve looked back and this time last year I was backing Petit Mouchir at 12/1 and we knew he was chasing and in a similar position as one of the favourites.
Well if one of them gets injured your treble is down anyway. I agree option 1 is more attractive but seems to be plenty of talk of BDD going chasing, could obviously come back for the Mares but just about enough to be off a speculative punt at the moment
Good point I am almost always a trixie man over a treble though!
I imagine you didn't see my edited post before you replied.... I sort of have already done option 2, I just don't see any situation where Melon reverses form with BVD and especially now Samcro may run...
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I am almost always a trixie man over a treble though!
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