Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[ComplyOrDie]

He's got plenty for it, Jared sullivan alone has
Don't hesitate.
Holiday winner
Chante niege

All with Willie.

Add in the champion bumper winner
Salsaretta.
Colreevy.

Has a very strong hand.

You're not wrong, and it's something I think we all come to expect, but I do honestly feel DDC may prove to be a new challenge for his lot next year. Of course, as with all this debate currently we are a LONG way from being there again, so many things can change, but this current moment in time I have my sights set firmly on DDC

[filthyewaypunter]

First post on the forum and chuffed to see I'm not the only one who loves an antepost punt!

Samcro the big talking point it appears so I will weigh in with my tuppance worth on him... I believe he will go RSA, working up slowly in distance on the run up to the Festival as suggested earlier in the thread. I'm taking this view mainly on the expected going with it surely not being as soft as it was this year. 3m on good to soft will be right up his street in my opinion and 10/1 seems reasonable. No race will be a gimme but wherever he turns up he will scare off some of the opposition although I would expect Black Op to make a race of it because that one really does look an out and out stayer.

In the Supreme I have sided with last years talking horse Annamix (16/1) as nothing from this edition of the Bumper really impressed me. Blackbow could be the one to take from the race but other than that I think the quality was on a par wth the 2017 running - not that great. Special mention to Envoi Allen and Dlauro purely based on their price tags and performances in P2P's but they could end up anywhere so with that in mind Annamix looks the 'safe' option to me.

For the Champion Hurdle I really fancy the chances of Summerville Boy (20/1). Tom George has suggested the plan is to remain over the smaller obstacles and if he can iron out the errors he will give BVD something to think about next season because this is a really weak division at the moment.

Bit of buzz on Twitter for Chante Neige (12/1) for the Mares Novice. Shot in the dark tbh but has apparently been given time off to strengthen up since going to Mullins last year. Will no doubt sluice up in a weak race and go off odds-on next year.

The Gold Cup will be all about Presenting Percy (6/1) for me. So impressive in the RSA this year and I believe it will take a very good animal to stop him at the course he loves. I think the GC this year will have taken the edge off Native River and with Might Bite becoming a 10 yr old I think they have missed their chance with him.

I have no idea where they will go with Footpad. Mullins suggesting stepping up in trip (desperate to win a GC) but he looks every inch a solid Champion Chase contender although has some stepping up to do in order to worry Altior. Monalee looks like he would enjoy the RyanAir and could possibly meet Petit Mouchoir if that one was stepped up in trip.

All-in-all, lots of discussion to be had and money to waste but only 357 days to go!

[Middle_Of_March]

For me:
1) JLT
2) RSA
3) Champion Hurdle
4) Arkle
5) Champion Chase
6) Gold Cup



Would be stunned if he goes anywhere but the JLT or RSA. Took the 5/2 any race already and when September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't knock that I'd see it as.
1. JLT
2. Arkle
3. Rsa
4. CH


Death duty was there best novive this season no doubt. And I'd be certain he'd have gone jlt. Even though I personally thought he was an rsa horse. And he dosent have the pace of samcro.

I don't even think he'll run over 3 miles before or at chelt next season tbh. I see no reason why he won't go the same route as death duty.

Death Duty ran and Elliott came out and said he got him wrong and he isn't a 3 miler.

That implies they thought he was a 3 miler in the first place.

If they DO take the death Duty route he'll end up RSA unless he doesn't stay ... like Death Duty .


***just seen there are 4 pages of comments so ignore this for now

[filthyewaypunter]

...when September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

Not a huge fan of flat racing but I fancy Contingent (20/1) for the Oaks - impressed me on debut and should relish the step up in trip according to breeding.

[ryanh97]

When September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

[Middle_Of_March]

Not a huge fan of flat racing but I fancy Contingent (20/1) for the Oaks - impressed me on debut and should relish the step up in trip according to breeding.

I lumped on September in the Chesham last year at Royal Ascot and took 33s before that race for the Oaks. Fast ground over a mile and a half and she will blitz them.

Fair shout with Contingent. Definitely one to watch.

Have to say, now I’ve done Cheltenham, it beats Epsom, Newmarket and Ascot hands down in my opinion.

[filthyewaypunter]

...Have to say, now I’ve done Cheltenham, it beats Epsom, Newmarket and Ascot hands down in my opinion.

Couldn’t agree more. I think the Dublin Festival comes close in terms of quality and I really hope British trainers embrace it next year. Would like to go myself next year.

[Middle_Of_March]

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

I’ll give it a go

Veracious - 1000 Guineas
Roaring Lion - 2000 Guineas
Saxon Warrior - Derby
September - Oaks
Kenya - St Leger

[filthyewaypunter]

Any chance you can tell me who wins all 5 classics so I can have a Canadian

For what it’s worth, these are my darts...

1,000 Guineas - Veracious
2,000 Guineas - Elarqam
Oaks - Contingent
Derby - Nelson
St Leger - The Pentagon

[archie]

Surely, serial yellow cards for introducing ferret racing into serious business.

[ryanh97]

Cheers lads.

Surely, serial yellow cards for introducing ferret racing into serious business.

I agree Archie, but a winners a winner haha

[Kevloaf]

Arkle odds on Samcro tumbled from 10s to 7s in 48 hours (blue on oddschecker), unchanged odds in JLT 4s and RSA 10s !!!

There is no way there is any informed money going in to these markets at this stage...

Just mugs on forums

[Kevloaf]

You're correct about the 3 favourites, of course.

My main point though is that, if connections haven't made up their mind and in all likelihood won't until October, you're tying up money for 6 months in which time it's unlikely that the price will move significantly. With free bets and/or long prices this is fine especially if it fits your betting strategy but it simply isn't for me based on my experiences over a good number of years.
Every year is slightly different and everyone is old (and, no doubt, ugly) enough to go their own way but taking early (ie before a horse has reappeared) single figure prices isn't for me. A couple of examples:
Buveur D'Air was a best price of 5/1 in November.
Our Duke was a fairly skinny price before his first race of the season and went out to something like 25/1.

For sure Samcro backers got a good price this time but those who were in individual race markets had 6 months of will he, won't he and it will be exactly the same this time. Ditto Footpad. Until he, Min, Douvan and, maybe, UDS are back in full training there will be little serious discussion about Cheltenham targets and no meaningful clues until the Tingle Creek.

I don't disagree with you archie.

I wouldn't consider starting to create a book until the season has finished and Aintree and Punchestown are out of the way...and the flat is almost done-with!

The only "single" I've placed post festival this year is Penhill (2.5 pts) at 8/1. (Case made in the stayers hurdle and I am tempted to keep adding to this when I have a profitable weekend/mini-flat festival if the price is still 8/1).

I do also have three singles from BEFORE this years festival that we're speculative - a single on Presenting Percy (2.5 pts) at 40/1 for the Gold Cup, placed pre-RSA (and Monalee 33/1) and Samcro at 14/1 (1 pt) and 10/1 (2 pts) placed before the Ballymore.

10 pts I might not see again...but I won't be changing my method, I don't really get started until September
I swap those 10 pts now and knowing it is likely they might not make it I still wouldn't.... but that all comes down to punting style I suppose

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

If she's sound she will be in the mares hurdle imo. The route she goes before that is anyone's guess. If they stepped her up in class she might go for the hattons Grace with her allowance, all Depends how ambitious they are, As There's a generous mares programme with her name written all over it. Over both codes.

Agree with that.

I think she'll be having a very similar campaign to Vroum Vroum Mag the first time she won at the festival in terms of a season.