Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Kevloaf]

£1 Canadian

Angels breath 5/1 surpreme
Pic D’orhy 16/1 triumph
Carefully selected 20/1 AB
Stand up and fight 5/1 fox
Presenting Percy 9/2 GC

Returns £126,069.50

Dreams lol

I wonder where I've seen that suggested

[Arkle]

Changed tiger for Percy Kev

[Arkle]

Be some sweat on the last imagine

[Kevloaf]

Relying on Derek O'Connor to avoid getting brought down by some chav stable staff from the Nicholls yard?

[Arkle]

If your in front can’t be brought down

[Kevloaf]

If your in front can’t be brought down

Haha, a pillar to post ride from Derek O'Connor? Looks a great bet to me, that'd be a ridiculous Friday. I reckon it'd end me.

[Arkle]

defibrillator at the ready

[jonthehammer]

��WILLIAM HILL - we will not be going Non-Runner No Bet this year, we are paying extra places on all the handicap races and we have gone best odds guaranteed on all races at the Cheltenham Festival from now

I like that as it gives the punter options to take on better prices. Obviously more of a risk but I would rather that then them all doing the same

[Hurricane fly]

Glad somebody isn’t

Said previously we are at a stage now where I’m happy to take on the risk of an injury in order for a better price

However most of their prices are no real change from Sky

[jonthehammer]

They didn';t do NRNB last year either properly...

Wasn't it something like, Non runner, money back if they run in another race? Or Money back if they DON'T run in another race... was definitely one of those two!

It was called Non runner insurance I think and you got money back if the horse ran in another race

[thistlecracker]

Last okkng through the Skybet specials

Cilaos Emery (any race)
Penhill (stayers)
Topofthegame (RSA)
Fox Norton (QMCC)

All to place 90/1
Might have my next free bet on that

I like this too

[Outlaw]

Not that it matters much but Hills last year was NRNB if your horse missed the fez , if they ran in another race it was tough luck , as I found out with "Pendra" . Longsdon stated yep Ultima this year not the Kim Muir again , so took few early prices as you do with Runners who run a stormer year before , low and behold had two entries and week before "he's going to try to go one better " cheers Charlie

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Seriously thinking about my biggest bet being on N Henderson as top trainer.
Think he has a nice hand and the two big Irish trainers will split their differences.
Want bigger than 5-2 WH though.
Antone seen any specials on this anywhere ??

B365 would be best as the first two days look really strong for him - so cash out would be an option.

Decided to crunch some numbers on this for the last 5 and 10 festivals in particular looking at the split between the handicaps and non-handicaps. I imagined that Henderson was some way behind on the handicaps but over the last 10 years average Festival handicap winners per Festival is:

Henderson: 0.7
Elliot: 0.9
Mullins: 0.8

So negligible difference, over the last 5 years though:

Henderson: 0.4
Elliot: 1.4
Mullins: 1

So if you are more inclined to use the last 5 years you could say that Hendo is likely to have 1 less handicap winner than Elliot

This for the non-handicaps last 10 years average winners per Festival:

Henderson: 2.7
Elliot: 2.2
Mullins: 4.7

And the last 5 years:

Henderson: 2.4
Elliot: 3.8
Mullins: 6.4

So what does this tell us? Firstly, and unsurprisingly Mullins significant advantage has been in the non-handicaps with Elliot having a lesser advantage in the handicaps over the other two.

Now depending on how you see the current non handicap markets it would not be unfair to say that Henderson has a whopping 7 favs compared to two each for the other two (not included Eliiots Bumper favs). I appreciate the number of favs does not give you the full picture of strength in depth per race but it is an indicator. I also appreciate that this will change over the next couple of months. That said I'll be surprised if Hendo does not still have a decent advantage and with his handicap disadvantage unlikely to be too big as things stand I think he should be chalked up fav in the top trainer market, and I think I'll be getting involved if 3s or bigger is available

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Hills offer last year was money back if your horse missed the festival altogether but you did your money if it ran in an alternative race. Best odds guaranteed isn’t a bad offer tbh, plenty of other bookies going NRNB if that’s the offer you want

[boopa]

If you need BOG antepost you need to think about whether it's the right bet.