Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[SeanRock]

Only my third year doing ante post.

Main changes this year are:

Win only.

Any race market or 365.

Not afraid to go back in on a horse when it's shortened even though I have it at a bigger price.

Bigger stake, less horses.

Free bets on life changing multiples.

Concentrate more on Mullins/Elliott/Henderson.

Back previous festival winners.

I’d have almost an identical strategy bar having no problem backing e/w at odds of 20’s plus but only with 365, 1/5 place terms is miserable with the rest of the bookies. Think bigger stakes on your strong fancies & less spread is very solid advice.

I’ve only two sizable investments at the minute and will probably top up on those over the next few months rather than look to make any more big uns. Get the research in (rewatch a lot of key racing you’d be amazed what you miss in real time) Go with your gut stand out choices & stick to your guns!

[Kevloaf]

I’d have almost an identical strategy bar having no problem backing e/w at odds of 20’s plus but only with 365, 1/5 place terms is miserable with the rest of the bookies. Think bigger stakes on your strong fancies & less spread is very solid advice.

I’ve only two sizable investments at the minute and will probably top up on those over the next few months rather than look to make any more big uns. Get the research in (rewatch a lot of key racing you’d be amawhat you miss first time out) go with your gut stand out choices & stick to your guns!

Topofthegame and

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Topofthegame and

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season

...and Carefully Selected in the AB

[Quevega]

my take on antepost betting this far out -
Is that it's like trying to solve the jackpot round on catchphrase after one square has been revealed.

So at this stage of the season I'm just looking to try and get some horses on side at bigger prices than I think they should be based on all sorts of stuff, but mainly my considered opinion.
Stakes are generally smaller and prices bigger.
But my golden rule is that I must think that they have a chance of winning/placing.
Rarely though, are they the horse I would bet on if the race was tomorrow.
My objective is to have some lively runners on the day at big prices, so that I can then increase stakes into the NRNB phase and then much nearer the race when I've seen more and more evidence.
Looking to cover 2-4 horses (on average) for each race ideally.

[Kevloaf]

...and Carefully Selected in the AB

Of course. Good work

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Of course. Good work

haha...remember following him on the double

[SeanRock]

Topofthegame and

I echo that sentiment, very sound strategy Innoko.

I'm still on less stake than this time last year but feel in a MUCH stronger position.

269 bets this time last season
146 this season

Be rude to not take Bet365 up on there generous Black Friday 25’s offer

[Kevloaf]

my take on antepost betting this far out -
Is that it's like trying to solve the jackpot round on catchphrase after one square has been revealed.

So at this stage of the season I'm just looking to try and get some horses on side at bigger prices than I think they should be based on all sorts of stuff, but mainly my considered opinion.
Stakes are generally smaller and prices bigger.
But my golden rule is that I must think that they have a chance of winning/placing.
Rarely though, are they the horse I would bet on if the race was tomorrow.
My objective is to have some lively runners on the day at big prices, so that I can then increase stakes into the NRNB phase and then much nearer the race when I've seen more and more evidence.
Looking to cover 2-4 horses (on average) for each race ideally.

That all makes sense. I think you've commented before that we have a similar approach to ante post betting?

I definitely start to turn the screw after Christmas (NRNB) - this time of year is about trying to find the really big prices that could significantly shorten. I knoew FM has been shocked before at ther difference in stake I have pre Christmas compared to the time the Tuesday rolls around

This is a good example of my strategy this far out....

Of my 146 bets, only 12 are less than 20/1

Laurina 12/1 CH
Commander of Fleet 13/1 any race
Cracking Smart 17.5/1 any race
The Storyteller 18/1`any race
Altior (Enable) 15.5/1
Tiger Roll 7/1
Black Op JLT 13/1 (wow thats a bad bet!)
Monalee 14/1
Min 18/1 ***exchanges
Penhill 9/1 8/1
Chante Neige 13/1 any race
Relegate 15/1 (another poor one)

Less than 10%, and that won't be changing.

18 pts in Non Runners too at this stage with Draconien out, Samcro and Laurina hurdling

[SeanRock]

...and Carefully Selected in the AB

I’m obviously as transparent as glass lads

Also will be mostly concentrating on Willies novice hurdlers & predominantly Gordon’s novice chasers.

Wouldn’t swap Ruby over a hurdle or Davy over a fence for all the jocks in the underwear world!

[BigChaang]

That all makes sense. I think you've commented before that we have a similar approach to ante post betting?

I definitely start to turn the screw after Christmas (NRNB) - this time of year is about trying to find the really big prices that could significantly shorten. I knoew FM has been shocked before at ther difference in stake I have pre Christmas compared to the time the Tuesday rolls around

This is a good example of my strategy this far out....

Of my 146 bets, only 12 are less than 20/1

Laurina 12/1 CH
Commander of Fleet 13/1 any race
Cracking Smart 17.5/1 any race
The Storyteller 18/1`any race
Altior (Enable) 15.5/1
Tiger Roll 7/1
Black Op JLT 13/1 (wow thats a bad bet!)
Monalee 14/1
Min 18/1 ***exchanges
Penhill 9/1 8/1
Chante Neige 13/1 any race
Relegate 15/1 (another poor one)

Less than 10%, and that won't be changing.

18 pts in Non Runners too at this stage with Draconien out, Samcro and Laurina hurdling

Why is Black op at 13-1 - j.l.t. - a Bad bet for you Kev ??.

[Kevloaf]

Why is Black op at 13-1 - j.l.t. - a Bad bet for you Kev ??.

Just not big enough odds for me to have backed it. Target not yet confirmed. I think I did it when Samcro was confirmed hurdling but have given too much weight to his hurdles form at this stage.

Is just one that isn't going to be a lot shorter... might end up fine but I've bet it too early.

[Scooby91]

Updated.


Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1 ew 20/1
Quick grabim 50/1 ew
Eldorado allen 33/1
Tornado flyer 25/1


Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1 EW
Carefully selected 25/1
Tornado flyer 25/1

Arkle*
Getabird 20/1
Mengli khan 20/1*

RSA*
Santini 21/1 ( due to a double)
Next destination 10/1 (free bet)
Kilbricken storm 33/1

QMCC
Sceau royal 28/1 EW

Champion bumper
Malone road 28/1 any race
Envoi allen 33/1
Asterion forlonge 33/1
Shadow rider 33/1

JLT
claimantakinforgan 33/1 25/1 EW

Ryanair
Min 12/1
Top notch 28/1

Stayers
Penhill 15/2

Triumph*
Adjali 33/1 EW 25/1 EW 20s any race
Farid 33/1 any race
Fenta des obeaux 33/1 any race
Never adapt 33/1 any race

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1 13/1
Colreevy 25/1


ANY RACE


Allaho 20/1*

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1*

On the blind side 16/1*

Delta Work 16/1*

Blackbow 13/1

Cilaos emery 28/1

Cracking smart 16/1

Blow by blow 18/1

Champagne classic 16/1

The worlds end 28/1

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Just out of interest Scooby why have some races/horses got a * next to them?

[Scooby91]

Just out of interest Scooby why have some races/horses got a * next to them?

Not a clue tbh when I copy and paste it randomly adds it sometimes

[Kevloaf]

Alloho the only one I'm not familiar with there... 20s? Guessing a French triumph contender?