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Decided to crunch some numbers on this for the last 5 and 10 festivals in particular looking at the split between the handicaps and non-handicaps. I imagined that Henderson was some way behind on the handicaps but over the last 10 years average Festival handicap winners per Festival is:
Henderson: 0.7
Elliot: 0.9
Mullins: 0.8
So negligible difference, over the last 5 years though:
Henderson: 0.4
Elliot: 1.4
Mullins: 1
So if you are more inclined to use the last 5 years you could say that Hendo is likely to have 1 less handicap winner than Elliot
This for the non-handicaps last 10 years average winners per Festival:
Henderson: 2.7
Elliot: 2.2
Mullins: 4.7
And the last 5 years:
Henderson: 2.4
Elliot: 3.8
Mullins: 6.4
So what does this tell us? Firstly, and unsurprisingly Mullins significant advantage has been in the non-handicaps with Elliot having a lesser advantage in the handicaps over the other two.
Now depending on how you see the current non handicap markets it would not be unfair to say that Henderson has a whopping 7 favs compared to two each for the other two (not included Eliiots Bumper favs). I appreciate the number of favs does not give you the full picture of strength in depth per race but it is an indicator. I also appreciate that this will change over the next couple of months. That said I'll be surprised if Hendo does not still have a decent advantage and with his handicap disadvantage unlikely to be too big as things stand I think he should be chalked up fav in the top trainer market, and I think I'll be getting involved if 3s or bigger is available
Good post RC.
The DRF may have an impact in that market, with the performaces of Willie and Gordons... I'd they do well, perhaps NHendo will drift top 3/1+? .... the problem then is the markets probably right haha
I've already had a few quid on at 2.7/1 with the boost. Think the price is fair enough tbh. If he gets to 3/1 I will be going in again. I really struggle to see why Willie is so much shorter. Price based on reputation alone. He'd normally have the fav for most of the novice races by this stage and currently doesn't have any.
I've already had a few quid on at 2.7/1 with the boost. Think the price is fair enough tbh. If he gets to 3/1 I will be going in again. I really struggle to see why Willie is so much shorter. Price based on reputation alone. He'd normally have the fav for most of the novice races by this stage and currently doesn't have any.
He has literally no novice chasers except for outsiders.
And with his hurdlers I can see him sending more runners which will make it even more difficult. Wouldn't surprise me to see at least three or four in each of the novice hurdles and maybe more depending on jockey availability. He does tend to fire a few at a race when he has no stand out operator. Having lived off him and the Irish for the last few years, at the moment I'd be favouring the UK trained horses, possibly because we've seen more of them and one or two have not had a bad one yet ?
William Hill also have their Prestbury Cup betting up; after paying for the festival lumping on Ireland last year I was suprised to see Great Britain as big as 7/4 this year, you’d expect it to be a lot closer if nowt else
I like that as it gives the punter options to take on better prices. Obviously more of a risk but I would rather that then them all doing the same
I concur with this - if you're sure of something, it's nice to have someone with a price out there that's got a bit more vig to it.
As to the poster saying it doesn't make sense - one of the primary rules of branding and marketing is to differentiate yourself from your competitors, especially in categories where it comes down to price. Pretty basic approach, but being best price everywhere once ppl go NRNB is a big stand out
William Hill also have their Prestbury Cup betting up; after paying for the festival lumping on Ireland last year I was suprised to see Great Britain as big as 7/4 this year, you’d expect it to be a lot closer if nowt else
Sorry after timing I took the 11/4 when Prestbury Cup was opened by Hills, still see 7/4 as a really good bet, surely they should be closer we have the edge in the non handicap races ( I accept that might change after the Dublin Fest) and I wonder if our handicapper might be out to prove a point after last year.
I actually placed the bet thinking, this should pay for the beer for the week!!!!
Martin mentioned the Ballymore after his win at Leopardstown Quevega. The owners sponsor the race. I’d be happy to back him in that race e/w at a nice price but would like to see him stepped up in class to make a proper call on Ballymore or Martin Pipe. Dallas De Pictons franked the form last time out! He’s one I’m keen to have onside wherever he goes.
Martin mentioned the Ballymore after his win at Leopardstown Quevega. The owners sponsor the race. I’d be happy to back him in that race e/w at a nice price but would like to see him stepped up in class to make a proper call on Ballymore or Martin Pipe. Dallas De Pictons franked the form last time out! He’s one I’m keen to have onside wherever he goes.
I've already had a few quid on at 2.7/1 with the boost. Think the price is fair enough tbh. If he gets to 3/1 I will be going in again. I really struggle to see why Willie is so much shorter. Price based on reputation alone. He'd normally have the fav for most of the novice races by this stage and currently doesn't have any.
Good call as in to 2/1 now, be surprised if 3s is ever available
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