2018 Bookie Specials

[jonthehammer]

So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
2.25L over The New One
3.5L over Irving
5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
7L over Breath of BLighty
11L over Wait For Me

Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
13L over Fox Norton
18L over Marracudja
6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
7L over Min G1 Supreme
13L over Open Eagle
0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
34L over Murray Mount

Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
8L over Frodon
2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
30L over Gorran Haven
14L over Premier Bond
8L over Simply A Legend
1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
15L over Royalraise

Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
Champion Hurdle - won by:
4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
Average 2.3L

Champion Chase - won by:
0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
Average 6.8L

Gold Cup - won by:
2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

Summary of that....

50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!

Legend Kev. Superb stuff.

[BigChaang]

I rest my case Kev , you should be on the staff at the Racing post , OR " are you Tom Segal in disguise "

[ryanh97]

Great work that Kev

[Aldie1988]

Cracking info Kev

[Middle_Of_March]

So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
2.25L over The New One
3.5L over Irving
5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
7L over Breath of BLighty
11L over Wait For Me

Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
13L over Fox Norton
18L over Marracudja
6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
7L over Min G1 Supreme
13L over Open Eagle
0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
34L over Murray Mount

Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
8L over Frodon
2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
30L over Gorran Haven
14L over Premier Bond
8L over Simply A Legend
1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
15L over Royalraise

Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
Champion Hurdle - won by:
4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
Average 2.3L

Champion Chase - won by:
0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
Average 6.8L

Gold Cup - won by:
2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

Summary of that....

50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!

Only just seen this Kev. Cracking work. You’ve excelled yourself.

[Hurricane fly]

Altior to win the CC by 4+ lengths 11:4

Altior(CC) and Native River (GC) both to win 14/1

Both with Skybet

[ryanh97]

Altior boosted to evens with Skybet NRNB

[Leman14]

William Hill - 28 Days to go

Getabird (Supreme), Buveur D'air (CHurdle), Apples Jade (Mares) & Might Bite (GC) - all to win @ 28/1
(Would be 24/1 separately)

[ryanh97]

Skybet - 10+ winning favourites @ 4/1 from 2/1

[ryanh97]

Coral - Footpad and Laurina both to win @ 4/1. Around 3/1 elsewhere

[ComplyOrDie]

Not so much a special, but a Request-A-Bet on SkyBet - P Nicholls to have 3 or more winners 8/1 - Now, initially I sat there thinking that is a pretty poor price, probably wanted at least another 6pts on top of that before considering it, then I decided to take a look at his potential list of runners for the festival (in no particular order):

Frodon - Currently about 11th in the betting of the Ryanair though I suspect at least 5 or 6 ahead of him currently will not run in this race anyway, and although would need to improve must go with a chance of some sort after his latest facile success over c&d.

Movewiththetimes - Being owned by JP a few members on here fancied this horse early on as a potential handicap plot, and that could still be on the agenda, currently in the betting in a few races at the festival, including the Close Brothers Handicap on day 1.

Black Corton - Probably has it all to do in the RSA, but a model of consistency this season and wouldn't be the biggest shock if he ran a big race.

Diego Du Charmil - Be surprised if he goes for the Arkle, as looked well held by the current 3rd favourite for that race, but is fairly handicapped and has festival form, will likely go with a solid chance, I suspect down the handicap route, for whichever race he contests.

Connetable - I'm actually surprised he is as big as he is for the Pertemps, but does have a knack for finding at least one too good, looks as though handicapper has his measure, but is consistent enough.

Old Guard & Topofthegame - Both entered in the Coral Cup and for me both with big chances. The former is also entered in the Stayers' but I'll be surprised if he goes down that route having been held by a couple this season that are more prominent in the betting for that race.

Politologue - Has it all to do to even get close to Altior in the Champion Chase, but stranger things have happened over time!

Act Of Valour & Sao - Two very well thought of juveniles, both likely to go with big chances in the Fred Winter, many on the forum are already on at least one of them already, but maybe one of Nicholls' stronger chances of a win during the festival.

Modus - Support, after his win at the weekend, in the JLT, and must go with a fair chance, given how the opposition is now looking fairly weak with some expected runners to take up engagements in the RSA as opposed to here at the festival.

Wonderful Charm, Pacha Du Polder, Virak & Caid Du Berlais - Probably Nicholls' best chance of a winner at the festival comes in the Foxhunters where he looks to have a strong hand. The 5/1 SkyBet Request-A-Bet for him to train the winner of this race is certainly a bet worth taking IMO.

Other horses: Cyrname, Capitaine, Clan Des Obeaux, Romain De Senam, Le Prezien, Bouvreuil, Divin Bere, Saphir De Rheu, Dolos & San Benedeto are just some of the others he has to play his hand with, some of which look well handicapped to increase his chance of having that 3 or more winners for this bet to come off!

Just my thoughts on his current crop, and whilst I would have liked to have had a bigger price, but as I don't actually have many of his covered yet I thought I'd go in on the 8/1 for small stakes.

I will certainly be making notes of the handicap horses that find money coming for them when all weights are out and the week before the festival kicks off.

[Istabraq]

Not specifically Chelt related but Sky are doing a promotion where you get a free bet for every five bets you place, so five x £50 bets and you get a free £50 bet, this is up to a max of five free bets.
So stake £1250 and get £250 in free bets, thought that was OK....

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Not specifically Chelt related but Sky are doing a promotion where you get a free bet for every five bets you place, so five x £50 bets and you get a free £50 bet, this is up to a max of five free bets.
So stake £1250 and get £250 in free bets, thought that was OK....

Thanks Ista, that's right up my street

Where is it though on their website?

[charlie]

I love the Skybet £25 money back as a free bet on the first race of every day. What systems do they have to prevent multiple accounts? Is there anything stopping me getting a few of my mates to open accounts and place bets on my behalf? I assume they have to use their own bank card, but other than that is there anything else I am missing? Ie, tracking the device/IP you log in from etc

[Cashew King]

Thanks Ista, that's right up my street

Where is it though on their website?

Skybet don’t always have the same offers for all customers - I don’t have the offer Ista has but have The Cheltenham bonus builder instead - which a number of my mates with Skybet accounts don’t have.