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As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price that's not that bad is it?
BVD isn't the perfect horse for any distance bet really BUT was over 2l last year
Altior has stiff competition but did beat the likely 2nd fav by plenty more than 2L last time they met.
Might Bite again isn't ideal because he idles BUT could easily have them all strung out.
Certainly worth a second look?
Agreed, worth a 2nd look - but a great deal will depend on what is already in your book.
Not a huge fan of "Winning Distance" Specials anyway and I have B D'air and MB are well covered in numerous multiples.
However, for those that haven't go these covered - it may be worth a cheeky point
No I don't like distacne bets either as a rule. Mainly because I can't price up the difference between a win and a 2L win myself.
Personally I'm tempted because I think that treble is too short but 2L isn't that far for it to be over twice the price BUT I want to check previous and average winning distances for those 3 and the 3 races.
No I don't like distacne bets either as a rule. Mainly because I can't price up the difference between a win and a 2L win myself.
Personally I'm tempted because I think that treble is too short but 2L isn't that far for it to be over twice the price BUT I want to check previous and average winning distances for those 3 and the 3 races.
So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...
Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal) 1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
2.25L over The New One
3.5L over Irving
5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle 1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE 0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
7L over Breath of BLighty
11L over Wait For Me
Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air
Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
13L over Fox Norton
18L over Marracudja
6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
7L over Min G1 Supreme
13L over Open Eagle 0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial 1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
34L over Murray Mount
Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior
Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal) 1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
8L over Frodon 2L over Whisper at Aintree G1 Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
30L over Gorran Haven
14L over Premier Bond
8L over Simply A Legend 1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
15L over Royalraise
Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite
What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?
You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!
A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
Champion Hurdle - won by:
4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1 Average 2.3L
Champion Chase - won by: 0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19 Average 6.8L
Gold Cup - won by:
2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5
Summary of that....
50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.
I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win
To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!
So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...
Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal) 1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
2.25L over The New One
3.5L over Irving
5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle 1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE 0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
7L over Breath of BLighty
11L over Wait For Me
Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air
Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
13L over Fox Norton
18L over Marracudja
6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
7L over Min G1 Supreme
13L over Open Eagle 0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial 1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
34L over Murray Mount
Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior
Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal) 1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
8L over Frodon 2L over Whisper at Aintree G1 Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
30L over Gorran Haven
14L over Premier Bond
8L over Simply A Legend 1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
15L over Royalraise
Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite
What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?
You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!
A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
Champion Hurdle - won by:
4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1 Average 2.3L
Champion Chase - won by: 0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19 Average 6.8L
Gold Cup - won by:
2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5
Summary of that....
50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.
I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win
To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!
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