Brown Advisory Plate 2018

[cwright23]

I haven’t got Twitter, would any of the FJ family be so kind to ask on my behalf..

[Scooby91]

I haven’t got Twitter, would any of the FJ family be so kind to ask on my behalf..

I will pm him. But if anyone else wants to msg him in the mean time to ask feel free

[ComplyOrDie]

Been going through this race, and currently 2 or 3 that stand out.

Ballyalton - Shooting down the weights currently, PU on his latest try, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he stays the 3m that he contested LTO. Has the all important festival form, winning the Close Brothers Handicap two seasons back and finishing 2nd (bt 4 1/2L) behind none of other than the great Faugheen (Neptune) in his novice hurdle days, he's obviously talented and this race trip is his ideal IMO. Has had pretty much the same sort of prep as two seasons ago before winning his race at the festival, 4 races to date this season, and his form is a bit hit and miss, again, a bit like last season, which has also meant he has dropped down to a rating of just 138, some 2lb lower than his win at the festival. He is aged 11 now, so time is against him, but Gaultstats do not show this as a necessary negative, as he has course form along with this. 25/1 NRNB.

Baron Alco - Looks to have been laid out for a crack at this race (albeit I do believe there was sort of injury he picked up too), has incredibly smart form against some quality rivals, still waiting on a handicap mark, but must have a fair chance and will back NRNB (20/1) anyway, so should he not turn up it won't be a disaster.

Romain De Senam - This one I really like, made a case for some Nicholls well handicapped horses and this is one of his best I feel. Finished ahead of Tully East, as did Ballyalton in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, on ground that wouldn't have suited and is also 1lb better off from his UK rating to Tully Easts Irish rating and that's before Phil Smith has had his say on Tully East. His best form is on Good - Good/Soft. His only piece of festival form was his 2nd to stablemate Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter back in 2016, not bad form to have in the book. He is owned by the same owners Bouvreuil had (before being brought by JP), when he finished 2nd to Ballyalton in the Close Brothers Handicap, and I feel compensation may await with this one! 16/1 NRNB!

[Folski]

I think Tully East has a huge chance in this he won the Close Brothers fairly cosily last year off 138.

2nd - Gold Present now 155 was 137
3rd - Two Taffs now 149 was 137
4th - Powersbomb hasn't run over fences this season but should probably be on for the tracker.
5th - Last Goodbye (won handicap at Dublin Racing Festival) now 146 was 140

Tully East was 148 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and for me travelled like an absolute dream. The ground went against him that day and he didn't really see his race out, was beaten 12L. Ran a cracker last time off 144 in Ireland to finish 8L 3rd giving 21lb to the winner over a trip and ground that were not ideal. He's been bumped to 146 in Ireland for that run, it will be interesting to see what Phil Smith does with that. I think he's probably a borderline grade 1 horse.

The worry is winners of this have been low 140s the last few years.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Tully East has a huge chance in this he won the Close Brothers fairly cosily last year off 138.

2nd - Gold Present now 155 was 137
3rd - Two Taffs now 149 was 137
4th - Powersbomb hasn't run over fences this season but should probably be on for the tracker.
5th - Last Goodbye (won handicap at Dublin Racing Festival) now 146 was 140

Tully East was 148 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and for me travelled like an absolute dream. The ground went against him that day and he didn't really see his race out, was beaten 12L. Ran a cracker last time off 144 in Ireland to finish 8L 3rd giving 21lb to the winner over a trip and ground that were not ideal. He's been bumped to 146 in Ireland for that run, it will be interesting to see what Phil Smith does with that. I think he's probably a borderline grade 1 horse.

The worry is winners of this have been low 140s the last few years.

I'm not saying Tully East is without a chance, clearly a talented horse in his own right, I just think there will be better handicapped horses at better prices, most notably 2 above that I noted, Ballyalton & Romain De Seman, who finished ahead of him in the BetVictor Gold Cup, and now seemingly likely to also be better off at the weights since that race too, and will both also get the better ground that Tully East also wants.

As far as form goes, Double Shuffle is now (probably not justified really, but finished 1l behind Gold Cup favourite Might Bite LTO) rated 166 and he finished 3rd to Ballyalton at the festival in the Close Brothers Handicap in 2016!

[Folski]

I'm not saying Tully East is without a chance, clearly a talented horse in his own right, I just think there will be better handicapped horses at better prices, most notably 2 above that I noted, Ballyalton & Romain De Seman, who finished ahead of him in the BetVictor Gold Cup, and now seemingly likely to also be better off at the weights since that race too, and will both also get the better ground that Tully East also wants.

As far as form goes, Double Shuffle is now (probably not justified really, but finished 1l behind Gold Cup favourite Might Bite LTO) rated 166 and he finished 3rd to Ballyalton at the festival in the Close Brothers Handicap in 2016!

I do think that could well be the case and he is at this moment too short for me but I think he will be competitive in this. If he is a nice price on the day say 12s I will get stuck in, as I said this race has been won by low 140 horses in recent years and only 2 horses this century has carried more than 11 stone. 3 since 95 carried 11 stone + not a great stat for TE.

On Ballyalton, he won the Close Brothers 2 years ago, Ballyalton is now 11 but I'm sure he will be very competitive off 138. The horse is clearly very talented but had his problems missing 2 full seasons. His run in the BetVictor was very encouraging but he did seem to be struggling well before the 3miles last time but it could be a case he just loves Cheltenham.

Will Baron Alco go straight to this? You would imagine he would be on a similar mark to Tully East.

On RDS I would be worried about his ability to carry weight I think other than a juvenile hurdle win at 2/9 (carried 11-05) and a novice chase win at 1/20 (carried 10-11). His wins have been carrying 10-06 x2, 10-01. He was 2nd in the Fred Winter but the max he gave any horse was 9lb including jockey claims. Also worth noting Voix Du Reve and Campeador fell at the last travelling the best, although RDS flew up the hill, I was on RDS that day. Since stepping out of juvenile company when he's carried over 11 stone his results are as follows 5755 beaten 9.25L off 143 on good at Doncaster, 22L on good at Kempton off 137, 12L on soft at Cheltenham off 145, 10.5L on soft at Cheltenham off 145. I think he needs to drop another few pounds.

[Robbante]

I do think that could well be the case and he is at this moment too short for me but I think he will be competitive in this. If he is a nice price on the day say 12s I will get stuck in, as I said this race has been won by low 140 horses in recent years and only 2 horses this century has carried more than 11 stone. 3 since 95 carried 11 stone + not a great stat for TE.

On Ballyalton, he won the Close Brothers 2 years ago, Ballyalton is now 11 but I'm sure he will be very competitive off 138. The horse is clearly very talented but had his problems missing 2 full seasons. His run in the BetVictor was very encouraging but he did seem to be struggling well before the 3miles last time but it could be a case he just loves Cheltenham.

Will Baron Alco go straight to this? You would imagine he would be on a similar mark to Tully East.

On RDS I would be worried about his ability to carry weight I think other than a juvenile hurdle win at 2/9 (carried 11-05) and a novice chase win at 1/20 (carried 10-11). His wins have been carrying 10-06 x2, 10-01. He was 2nd in the Fred Winter but the max he gave any horse was 9lb including jockey claims. Also worth noting Voix Du Reve and Campeador fell at the last travelling the best, although RDS flew up the hill, I was on RDS that day. Since stepping out of juvenile company when he's carried over 11 stone his results are as follows 5755 beaten 9.25L off 143 on good at Doncaster, 22L on good at Kempton off 137, 12L on soft at Cheltenham off 145, 10.5L on soft at Cheltenham off 145. I think he needs to drop another few pounds.

I think Ballyalton's main aim is the national this year, so not sure if they'll take this in on the way

[HardyEustace]

I think Ballyalton's main aim is the national this year, so not sure if they'll take this in on the way

Currently 82nd on the list for the National so unlikely to get in, which may push this race up the agenda if the National was the original aim.

[Can't Catch Me]

Been going through this race, and currently 2 or 3 that stand out.

Ballyalton - Shooting down the weights currently, PU on his latest try, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he stays the 3m that he contested LTO. Has the all important festival form, winning the Close Brothers Handicap last season and finishing 2nd (bt 4 1/2L) behind none of other than the great Faugheen (Neptune) in his novice hurdle days, he's obviously talented and this race trip is his ideal IMO. Has had pretty much the same sort of prep as last season before winning his race at the festival, 4 races to date this season, and his form is a bit hit and miss, again, a bit like last season, which has also meant he has dropped down to a rating of just 138, some 2lb lower than his win at the festival last season. He is aged 11 now, so time is against him, but Gaultstats do not show this as a necessary negative, as he has course form along with this. 25/1 NRNB.

Baron Alco - Looks to have been laid out for a crack at this race (albeit I do believe there was sort of injury he picked up too), has incredibly smart form against some quality rivals, still waiting on a handicap mark, but must have a fair chance and will back NRNB (20/1) anyway, so should he not turn up it won't be a disaster.

Romain De Senam - This one I really like, made a case for some Nicholls well handicapped horses and this is one of his best I feel. Finished ahead of Tully East, as did Bouvreuil in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, on ground that wouldn't have suited and is also 1lb better off from his UK rating to Tully Easts Irish rating and that's before Phil Smith has had his say on Tully East. His best form is on Good - Good/Soft. His only piece of festival form was his 2nd to stablemate Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter back in 2016, not bad form to have in the book. He is owned by the same owners Bouvreuil had (before being brought by JP), when he finished 2nd to Ballyalton in the Close Brothers Handicap, and I feel compensation may await with this one! 16/1 NRNB!

Good post CoD.

Agree entirely about Ballyalton. Slightly worried he will be 11 this time around, but looks like he has been plotted for this and looks sure to run a good race. 25/1 with Sky if you can get on with them!

[Robbante]

Currently 82nd on the list for the National so unlikely to get in, which may push this race up the agenda if the National was the original aim.

Good point, have seen a quote from Ian Williams yesterday saying he's not sure to get in. I agree he's well handicapped for this and has a good chance if going

[charlie]

ComplyOrDie. I could not agree more re Romain De Senam. 16/1 NRNB is lovely

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think O'Regan gave TE a very sympathtic ride last time out, and he still brought him into contention to finish third, I think that was treated as purely a prep run for this, I must say he is a big fancy of mine

[cpfcpatriot]

I’m going to attempt to find out some news re: Baron Alco at the weekend.

Hopefully he goes here as for the reasons listed previously, he looks a grand bet.

[Unhomme]

I think O'Regan gave TE a very sympathtic ride last time out, and he still brought him into contention to finish third, I think that was treated as purely a prep run for this, I must say he is a big fancy of mine

Agree completely MrM - TE is my handicap nap of the week.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The novice handicap form is rock solid from last year's festival and I think TE has a good chance of adding to his win last season.

I still maintain that Gold Present was the best horse in the race last year though, and think he should have won the race.....