Brown Advisory Plate 2018

[kinloch brae]

Couldn't see a thread for this so here goes.

Tully East obvious likely candidate for this although he is running over the minimum trip tomorrow. The fact that he almost favourite is probably a reflection that the race is not that great for the money on offer. Disappointing earlier in the season but presumably that was primarily down to the ground. Perhaps they are just looking to see him finish his race off better?

[Robbante]

Tully East solid claims but I also like Long House Hall for this. Great reappearance last time out on ground softer than ideal, he has smart course form finishing 2nd to diamond king. On good ground and assuming there is no bounce then he’d have to be a real contender

[jono]

I like both these shouts.

Tully East - connections have followed a proven plan for this horse - run him over the minimum trip and then step him up in March. He finished 4th in the Martin Pipe doing so and then last season had the exact same prep and only stepped up to this time win the Novice Chase on day one. They've looked to have done the same with him this year (bar the Betvictor Gold Cup but you can understand that with the lure of £90K) so the distance tomorrow is a deliberate tactic i'm sure.

On Long House Hall - do you think this race would be the most likely do you think?
2nd in the Coral Cup along with a win in a handicap hurdle here, both at the intermediate trip.

I just wonder whether the Doncaster run was them giving the 3 mile trip another go? He was favourite at the track on his first go at 3 miles and disappointed in 5th but having been off for so long, the trip seemed to suit last weekend and could maybe be a pointer to future targets? The Ultima on day 1 could come into play?

[Kevloaf]

Had to change the name... not been the Byrne Group since 2014

Personally think Long House Hall at 25/1 NRNB BOG 1/4 4 places with 365 is worth betting on now...

Tully East did follow the same pattern last year, and I remmeber you highlighting it, and I also remember celebrating it winning

I am going to very much consider the 16/1 with BFSB for him as 8/1 NRNB elsewhere seems a bit short at the moment

[Robbante]

I like both these shouts.

Tully East - connections have followed a proven plan for this horse - run him over the minimum trip and then step him up in March. He finished 4th in the Martin Pipe doing so and then last season had the exact same prep and only stepped up to this time win the Novice Chase on day one. They've looked to have done the same with him this year (bar the Betvictor Gold Cup but you can understand that with the lure of £90K) so the distance tomorrow is a deliberate tactic i'm sure.

On Long House Hall - do you think this race would be the most likely do you think?
2nd in the Coral Cup along with a win in a handicap hurdle here, both at the intermediate trip.

I just wonder whether the Doncaster run was them giving the 3 mile trip another go? He was favourite at the track on his first go at 3 miles and disappointed in 5th but having been off for so long, the trip seemed to suit last weekend and could maybe be a pointer to future targets? The Ultima on day 1 could come into play?

It’s interesting that they put him over that distance first time out, so you’re right Ultima could be on their minds, he only faded late on and pulled pretty hard so he probably gets the trip. He’s entered in the Ryanair though so took that as a sign that they probably think the intermediate trip is his best still. My worry would be the bounce after such a long lay off

[kinloch brae]

Satisfactory from Tully East although I would have liked him to finish a little better. It seems he still needs to do most of his running on the bridle and the tactics will always leave him as a bit of a hostage to fortune. The horlicks at the third last didn't help but I think third was the right position.

Blast Of Koeman is of interest going forward as he was ridden more prominently and still finished off pretty well. Unfortunately, he isn't yet good enough to get in at Cheltenham.

[jono]

Satisfactory from Tully East although I would have liked him to finish a little better. It seems he still needs to do most of his running on the bridle and the tactics will always leave him as a bit of a hostage to fortune. The horlicks at the third last didn't help but I think third was the right position.

Blast Of Koeman is of interest going forward as he was ridden more prominently and still finished off pretty well. Unfortunately, he isn't yet good enough to get in at Cheltenham.

I was very happy with the run from Tully East there, i'd have ideally liked him to finish a little further back. He would be a clear eye catcher there so hopefully he only goes up a couple of pounds.

Don't have the exact quotes but Alan Fleming was interviewed briefly before the race and you very much got the impression this was a stepping stone to Cheltenham. Along the lines of "hoping he can just come out of the race ok and then onto Cheltenham" and also knew the ground was probably against them again.

Ran a similar race to the BetVictor - travelled very well through the race and got into contention around 2 out. A couple of sloppy jumps but i'd put that down to the ground taking it's toll.

The tactics and his running style do leave him needing a bit of luck in running though which would be a very slight concern but nothing that would stop me backing him

[The Beast]

If thats Tully East ,not impressed one bit but have been proved wrong before , only further gives me confidence with my two Nicholls selections for race.

[Kevloaf]

I was very happy with the run from Tully East there, i'd have ideally liked him to finish a little further back. He would be a clear eye catcher there so hopefully he only goes up a couple of pounds.

Don't have the exact quotes but Alan Fleming was interviewed briefly before the race and you very much got the impression this was a stepping stone to Cheltenham. Along the lines of "hoping he can just come out of the race ok and then onto Cheltenham" and also knew the ground was probably against them again.

Ran a similar race to the BetVictor - travelled very well through the race and got into contention around 2 out. A couple of sloppy jumps but i'd put that down to the ground taking it's toll.

The tactics and his running style do leave him needing a bit of luck in running though which would be a very slight concern but nothing that would stop me backing him

Very happy with Tully East with a view to Cheltenham like you. Still 12s available which I'd chance if I hadn't had the 16s... think the move up in trip angle again will see him in better light, and he's performced well yesterday so I have faith he is still capable.

[SeanRock]

May pay to keep an eye on what Gigginstown have coming into this they seem to have targeted this with some dark horses over the last few years i was over there in 2016 and had a nice touch on Empire Of Dirt, he was very unexposed over in Ireland and had a nice lenient mark i think the GB handicapper can sometimes let a few of the Irish raiders slip through under the radar

[Toffees]

King's Socks had a few entries over the next few days but has been declared for a graduation chase in Kempton tomorrow. He was a top Juvenile hurdler in France, could be interesting here. Although he only raced on soft or heavy in France so Spring ground would be an unknown. He was short enough in the betting for the Betvictor in 2017 (as a four year old) but picked up an injury. Does anybody know what the injury was? He hasn't been seen since...

[Robbante]

One i'm keeping my eye on for this race is Value at Risk for Dan Skelton. Backed him last year for the close bros before he was ruled out with injuries. Rated 132 over fences and 145 over hurdles, he will need a little bump to be a real contender for this, but dotting up in a handicap chase at warwick on saturday could be that little bump he needs...

[cwright23]

I have pulled the trigger on kings socks for this race at 20/1 (boosted) WH.. but on closer inspection can anyone tell me any update on Bouveril.. he’s placed at the last 3 festivals and I assume this is his target, not ran since December but is already lower than his 3rd last year..

[Kevloaf]

Fleming has confirmed today this is the plan for Tully East

Alan Fleming reports Tully East on target to try to win at the Cheltenham Festival for the second year running.

The eight-year-old, owned by Barry Connell, landed the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase in 2017 and is likely to go for the Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate this time round.

Tully East has been lightly-raced this term and shaped well when third of 20 behind Patricks Park at Leopardstown last weekend.

"He came with a couple of small scratches but nothing to write home about. All's well with him," said Fleming.

"He'll go straight to Cheltenham now. He'll have a couple of entries, but I'd say the two-five handicap would be the main aim."

[Scooby91]

I have pulled the trigger on kings socks for this race at 20/1 (boosted) WH.. but on closer inspection can anyone tell me any update on Bouveril.. he’s placed at the last 3 festivals and I assume this is his target, not ran since December but is already lower than his 3rd last year..

Ask the owners son on Twitter. I havent asked about that horse but aslong as your friendly he would likely reply with an honest answer on whether he'll get an entry or not.