Kim Muir 2018

[jonthehammer]

I’ve had Mall Dini down for this from the start so I hope that is correct.

[Birds Nest]

Wanted to look at this race as Squouateur came up on another thread...

2009 Character Building 9 11–12 Jamie Codd John Quinn
2010 Ballabriggs 9 11–12 Richard Harding Donald McCain, Jr.
2011 Junior 8 11-06 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2012 Sunnyhillboy 9 11-11 Alan Berry Jonjo O'Neill
2013 Same Difference 7 11-07 Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies
2014 Spring Heeled 7 11-06 Robbie McNamara Jim Culloty
2015 The Package 12 11-04 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2016 Cause of Causes 8 11-09 Jamie Codd Gordon Elliott
2017 Domesday Book 7 11-04 Gina Andrews Stuart Edmunds

From that, nothing carrying a low weight has won in the last 10, so 'classier' the better?

Pipe has a ridiculous record recently, (gault last year) D/M Pipe trained four of the last 14 with The Package, Junior, Royal Predica and Maximise. Also Faasel has been second in both 2011 and 2010. Ran four in 2016 including Dr Harper fav and disappointing, Amigo 5th at 33s and Top Wood 25s 'disputing close second when fell 4 out'.

In 2017 he had Doctor Harper finish 7th, 14th and a PU too.

Broadway Buffalo (flagged up on page 1 by cpfcpatriot on page 1) is now 10 but looks to be the most likely candidate for him? 20/1 NRNB available... horse certainly stays and came 2nd to Cause of Causes over 4m at Cheltenham in 2015. 4th placed finish too as mentioned and Codd/Katie Walsh have both ridden him in the past.

He is still on my radar in a race that the fav is just too short to consider at this stage IMO

I seem to remember Broadway Buffalo was retired by pipe a couple of weeks ago, something about his old leg injury re occurring....

[cpfcpatriot]

I seem to remember Broadway Buffalo was retired by pipe a couple of weeks ago, something about his old leg injury re occurring....

Completely missed this.

Was wondering why he wasn’t entered today. Sad, I liked the horse, definitely had a big handicap in him pre-injury.

[MrMcGoldrick]

According to Tom George he could be sending Wild West Wind here, could be interesting

[Quevega]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

[Bayoffreedom]

I’ve had Mall Dini down for this from the start so I hope that is correct.

I think they may be saving him for a Beginner's Chase at Thurles in 2020 (where he'll probably bump into Squouateur!)

[Kevloaf]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

I'd persoanlly be a little put off by....

No run since last years Kim Muir
In fact, just two runs since 2015.
STILL trained by Charlie Longsdon?

17th / 5th / 3rd / 2nd at Cheltenham festival as you highlighted but still some leap and those odds look plenty short to me. COuld well go off shorter though being over bet as a JP handicap "plot"

[jono]

Pendra looks a solid option, based on previous festivals, likely to have O'connor on board and others near top of market could go elsewhere.
And Squat is no value and has had a few chances now.
16-1 Pendra isn't a steal but could see it going off shorter.

You'll like this video on Pendra a few days ago with Charlie Longsdon then quevega

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eRr6RcDYqf4" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Derek got off the horse last year and was gutted. They ommited the 3rd last and he said that cost us the race. Would have given him a natural breather and helped him get up the hill

He admits that it'll be tough to get him in better form than last year but they've had a clear run with him this year where as last year he had a month in the vets.

Agree that it looks very like O'Connor will ride again, with only Squouateur and Upswing in there for JP

Some might be put off by Longsdon's record at the festival (0/58) but that wouldn't be much of a factor for me.
10 years old however we saw similar in 2015 - what a top amateur (Codd) can do on an older horse with fantastic prior placed festival form (P24P3) with The Package.

Interesting that we could very well have the same horse and jockey combinations lining up again this year:

Squouateur (Codd)
Pendra (O'Connor)
Mall Dini (Walsh)

[Quevega]

It's no Plot horse. It's just got a solid chance.
It went off at 16s last year and was bigger in the morning, purely as it hadn't run for a year.
It probably should have won.
It's proved the lay off is unlikely to disadvantage it.
It's been trained for the race.
It's only had 11 chase starts.
I just think when race is finalised (assuming O'connor rides) the 16-1 may be as good as or better than available on day.
and that's a lot of it's

[Quevega]

yep I'd seen that Jono, thanks for posting,
wanted a price before entries but bet365 went into lockdown couple of days ago for the handicaps

[jono]

I'd persoanlly be a little put off by....

No run since last years Kim Muir
In fact, just two runs since 2015.
STILL trained by Charlie Longsdon?

17th / 5th / 3rd / 2nd at Cheltenham festival as you highlighted but still some leap and those odds look plenty short to me. COuld well go off shorter though being over bet as a JP handicap "plot"

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

[Kevloaf]

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

I laughed when they kept talking about the great festival record. 5th in the Ultima isn't placing? and we have to put a line through one as well.... So he has a 50% strike rate... . Nothing to sniff at clearly, but that isn't "great"!!!

4 attempts and 0 times getting his head infront? That is a 0% win record. Trainer 0/58 you might not see as negative but 20/1 best price does not seem to reflect that.

O'Connor would be a positive, obviously. Won't be lower in the weights and regardless of his record fresh, how many horses have won a festival race on there first run on the season?

I'm not a stats man, but if a 10yo has won a festival handicap race on first run of the season off top weight than they were beaten last year I'd be staggered.

If he was a 50/1 shot I'd back him. 16s NRNB or 20s is short with the amount of negatives anyone can find?



Certainly would want more than the 4 places too if 5th is all of a sudden worth the same as a 2nd

[ComplyOrDie]

Beaten 0.75L's in the same race last year with the same year break (with an excuse). His best form has generally been off long breaks too first time out:

5th Nov 2012 - 236 Days - 1/12
24th Oct 2013 - 225 Days - 1/7
28th Nov2014 - 221 Days - 4/8
10th Mar 2015 - 102 Days - 5/24
31st Oct 2015 - 235 Days - 1/15
9th Apr 2016 - 112 Days - 13/39
16th Mar 2017 - 341 Days - 2/24

Had a clear run so it's been the plan rather than a setback. I think it's very likely O'Connor rides again.
Could do again but also worth remembering he was off top weight that day too so it was an almighty effort. I doubt his mark will go down so he'll likely be top weight again but makes it all the more impressive.

Has a similar profile to The Package

It's amazing how you brush over horses without a glance, and admittedly, until tonight I hadn't even considered Pendra, BUT, there is clear evidence he is targeted at the festival, his Cheltenham form is very fair to say the least, and as has been noted he has ran well on numerous occasions when fresh.

Thanks for pointing this one out Quevega, will certainly keep an eye on Pendra now as it's not a race I have much of an interest in yet.

[Bayoffreedom]

I suspect that JP must have had a quiet word with the handicapper. Pendra was raised 3 lbs to 148 after his run last year (Premier Bond who was 3rd went up by 2lbs). Now, not having run since, he's back down to 145 which allows him to run in this race.

[jono]

4 attempts and 0 times getting his head infront? That is a 0% win record. Trainer 0/58 you might not see as negative but 20/1 best price does not seem to reflect that.

2013 - Coral Cup - His first go at the course and festival is very much a write off.
2014 - Close Brothers - Upsides the winner and every chance but a bad jump at the last cost him. Stayed on for 3rd.
2015 - Ultima - Obviously 5th won't get you any money and of course doesn't count for a place but that's still a solid festival run
2017 - Kim Muir - Narrowly beaten having led over the last and however much weight you give it had an excuse.

On paper it's a 0% win record but there's been some narrow margins in 2 of those races so i'm happy to call it a good festival record for sure.

Watching back his runs you could argue he maybe doesn't quite get up the hill (wandered around in the Ultima and worn down last year) but last year off top weight (likely to run off the same weight, at least won't be higher) was a run that suggested that the least and the older he gets, particularly if the National is again the aim he should stay better.

I'm obviously not going to persuade you otherwise but i'm on for 20/1. We know he is well and will run in the race so bar a new setback between now and then i'm happy to go for the bigger price without NRNB