Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Kevloaf]

Thata good news for Gold present. Not ideal that its clearly not been "the plan" but better to get a run for the money than get it back?

[jono]

Yeah it always makes me wary when a festival race isn't plan A for a horse. I had always thought this race would be a very good prep race leading onto the national, saw it fitting in well in the calendar, mirrored his campaign last season and have him as having a massive chance but that is a negative for sure.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah it always makes me wary when a festival race isn't plan A for a horse. I had always thought this race would be a very good prep race leading onto the national, saw it fitting in well in the calendar, mirrored his campaign last season and have him as having a massive chance but that is a negative for sure.

That's exactly as I see it Jono. It surprised me that this wasn't the target but as the Grand National is the number 1 aim, he couldnt be turning up in that without a run this calendar year.

[jono]

I had completely missed Coo Star Sivola's win on Friday at Exeter. Into 16/1 for the Ultima best price and 14/1 NRNB. Does this interest anyone? I know there's been a few mentions on the horse over the season, when it looked like the Close Brothers could be an option. Interestingly he only has entries in the JLT and the one handicap race - the Ultima.

3 miles didn't look to suit first time out over fences at Chepstow (won by Mia's Storm with Elegant Escape in 2nd) but on soft ground over 3 miles at Exeter it certainly didn't seem a problem. It was obviously a drop in class and he was entitled to win. Having been rated 135 going into the race, and with 134 being the mark needed for a run last year, I get the feeling they chose a race like this, one to test him over the 3 miles again and secondly to ensure he wins and gets a rise to ensure he gets a run.

Plenty of form around Cheltenham (23164324) which includes 3rd in the Fred Winter and 4th in the Martin Pipe. Surprisingly (to me looking back) he went off 13/2 2nd fav in the Martin Pipe last year and also went off fav on trials day in the race Frodon won. Kev made a good point in thinking he's probably more a place prospect which i'd agree with so 14/1 is a tad on the short side if that's the case? But there's every chance he'll be one of the shorter priced runners on the day.

I'm yet to back and keen to see what mark he goes up to on Monday. A big rise would temper my enthusiasm for him. Any ideas what mark he would be likely to get? Beat Ice Cool Champs (133) by 14 lengths with Lizzie Kelly claiming 3lbs.

One negative to his chances would be the record of 6 year olds in the race:

2017 - 2 ran - 11th and PU
2016 - 2 ran - 10th and UR
2015 - no runners
2014 - 1 ran - 2nd (Ma Filleule)
2013 - 3 ran - 8th, 13th, UR

= 1 placed from 8 runners in the last 5 years

Could suggest it's a race that comes a year too soon? Which would lead me onto another horse...

Go Conquer - 25/1 NRNB

It was only when watching the race back tonight that reminded me what a brilliant race he ran in it last season. Plenty of horses have ran in this race multiple times and down well: (gaultstats)

History of horses being placed more than once in this, including Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell, Our Mick, The Package (3 times), Juveigneur, Irish Hussar, Kelami, Ad Hoc, Unguided Missile, Boraceva. Bensalem may well have been. Fair Along, 4th in 2011, had been previously placed in a QM and an Arkle. Look for Un Temps Pour Tout, Singlefarmpayment, Noble Endeavour, Buywise (surely not, please).

And Jonjo O'Neill, although i'm generally hesitant to back any of his horses has a great record in the race (3 winners in the last 8 and 3 runners up this century) and would be his only runner entered. He does also have an entry in the Plate but having run over 3 miles on each of his last 3 starts, and with the National in mind I would say this race is most likely.

Came 5th at Kempton today. Jumped and travelled well for a long way but was headed 5 out. Watching back he was given an easy time by Coleman though and wasn't asked for much effot as soon as it became clear he was beaten. The time before that in the race involving Gold Present and SFP at Ascot - he made a race-winning mistake and then was on the back foot. He never looked right after the mistake and it was no surprise to see him fall soon after. It was a rare mistake this season for him though. He's gone up a good amount since winning his first 2 runs of the season impressively and his Ultima run last year (ran off 137 and went into the race today off 151) but i'd be hoping he might get dropped a couple of pounds, ideally just below 150 which would be workable (155,148,146,145,143 the last 5 winners) and I do think he's a much better and stronger horse a year on.


I am yet to back either buy they are the two other horses that stand out right now, having already backed Gold Present and The Storyteller. The only over horse (still) tempting me is...

Singlefarmpayment - 10/1 NRNB - I have kept holding off backing him since the Ladbrokes in December. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he came back to form here back at Cheltenham. He doesn't look to be going into the race in as good a form as last year however I don't think his form has been as bad as some have made out. First time out was a second at the course where he needed the run and it was all about getting him spot on for the Ladbrokes. At Newbury although he wouldn't have won, I have him down as placing if he hadn't of fallen which although slightly disappointing being so well fancied, wouldn't have been 'bad'. The Ascot run in 5th after when 5/1F was the most disappointing run (won by Gold Present) and then he PU after a bad mistake in the Cotswold Chase when it was far too early to judge him. So it's only really the Ascot race (and Heskin gave him a slightly odd ride that day) that was a disappointment. I thought he was incredibly well handicapped coming into the season so at his mark right now, it would be foolish to disregard him now. Will probably lose a few points but i'm keen to see what the vibes are around him over the next few weeks. Annoyed I didn't back at double the price though which puts me off backing now to some extent.

Oh and one more when it comes to previous form...The Young Master - 33/1 NRNB - hasn't showed much this year but has dropped to a mark of 139. Considering he finished 3rd off 149 in 2015 and 6th off 150 in this race in the last 2 years...anything like a return to form could see him go well?

[Kevloaf]

Like The Young Master angle in terms of handicapping and I've backed him for the Grand National but he's just shown no where near enough signs of life for me that I'm really worried he's just lost his love for jumping around? I perfectly get the handicap angle but for me this horse is now very much on the downgrade and if he does have one "big run" left, it'll be the National?

Singlefarmpayment you should be on by now... ever since he was beaten last year this MUST have been the plan, and I know they've said other things have been the target and blah blah but I don't believe them! I only have a win only 1 pt at 22/1 (any race) and I do expect SFP to place, but I'll probably wait for some enhanced place terms much closer and have a bit on then... he might well be 10s and 6 places on the day?

Go Conquer - solid case, 25s appeals more than Coo Star Sivola at 14s for me, as both are place chances (as you mentioned)

The case for Coo Star Sivola you've made (and we've discussed off forum) are fair IMO and I couldn't come up with anything to say "no" but I hope someone else can... because my gut tells me CSS can't win it!

[jono]

Yeah takes a big leap to see TYM coming back to form but would be dangerous off that mark. Would almost certainly be close to that price I feel on the day so certainly no rush whatsoever in backing and it's unlikely I will anyway.

Definitely interested to hear what others think on both CSS and GC...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah takes a big leap to see TYM coming back to form but would be dangerous off that mark. Would almost certainly be close to that price I feel on the day so certainly no rush whatsoever in backing and it's unlikely I will anyway.

Definitely interested to hear what others think on both CSS and GC...

I've been backing TYM for the Kim Muir - for the reasons you've listed.

There's a fair chance he is gone at the game but he's on a very attractive mark. He's a win only bet for me.

[Folski]

Last 7 have all worn some sort of headgear is a very interesting stat.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Last 7 have all worn some sort of headgear is a very interesting stat.

It would have zero relevance to me Folski. A pure coincidence

[Folski]

Having had a quick look De Plotting Shed is my horse for this at the moment, I've been questioning the distance he has been running at all year, looked like he's improved for fences. My biggest worry is can he stay 145 or less.

*Wrong race

[Birds Nest]

I'm a massive go conquer fasn and I think there is a big pay day for him in the future but a couple of things have put me off for the festival, he tends to front run,which for me is a negative at Cheltenham ASD was seen with him last year when his early exceptions up front took its toll,secondly I hold the opinion he's better going right handed. Even with these doubts you would still get a run for a place off him, just not a win..Singlefarmpayment isn't 100% travelling yet, qoute from Gloucestershirelive.byTom George "to be honest things haven't gone well for him this season and we have to decide whether he goes to the festival at all,we'll see how he is over the next few weeks. 15/2/2018

[Bayoffreedom]

Having had a quick look De Plotting Shed is my horse for this at the moment, I've been questioning the distance he has been running at all year, looked like he's improved for fences. My biggest worry is can he stay 145 or less.

*Wrong race

May be the wrong race Folski but he is entered for this: could it be a Freudian slip and you somehow know subconsciously that he will be in this race and, now that you've said it, your are obliged to back him?
Anyway, I think he has been, on balance, disappointing for the last 16 months but there are reasons to think he is better than he's shown: the distances he's been running over have been inadequate and his best form has been on better ground and he's a good jumper. I still feel he's lacked a bit of spark but, taken literally, his run off level weights against Presenting Percy (now rated 157) at Galway was good enough to give him a great chance in this or the Close Bros. He's rated 143 in Ireland and that is likely to be his UK mark as well - will be interesting to see where he ends up.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think the comments regarding SFP from Tom George could be applied to a few from the stable. They seem to have been struggling to find their form for a few weeks, it's as though they just run out of steam towards the end of a race. I'm sitting on several AP accumulator bets with the aim of seeing them place at big prices involving the stable's runners but the form is a worry

[jono]

I'm a massive go conquer fasn and I think there is a big pay day for him in the future but a couple of things have put me off for the festival, he tends to front run,which for me is a negative at Cheltenham ASD was seen with him last year when his early exceptions up front took its toll,secondly I hold the opinion he's better going right handed. Even with these doubts you would still get a run for a place off him, just not a win..Singlefarmpayment isn't 100% travelling yet, qoute from Gloucestershirelive.byTom George "to be honest things haven't gone well for him this season and we have to decide whether he goes to the festival at all,we'll see how he is over the next few weeks. 15/2/2018

I can see the argument behind favouring right handed tracks. He's been kept mainly to right handed tracks for most of his chasing career. I can't find any quotes from the trainer on the issue but it's interesting that his hurdles season consisted of races all running left handed, and it wasn't until his third chase start where they went right handed and he won after disappointing in his first 2 (left-handed) chase starts. The fact minus Cheltenham and Aintree last Spring his last 2 seasons have all been going right handed could easily imply it is deliberate targeting and it is a factor for the horse? That said it looked to be no hinderance at all in this race last season and the same could be said at Aintree before he got badly hampered and taken out of the race by Gold Present in the Topham at the 12th. So i'd be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and wouldn't factor it in as negative for his chances myself.

I would though agree on the front running factor Birds Nest. It's a very hard race to make all in and I tend to favour horses that will come from off the pace or at most prominent. So he could very well run a similar race to last year and end up setting the race up again for others.

[Birds Nest]

I take your point about going right handed jono and his mark could have been higher if he'd not slipped on landing at Ascot for he was going like a good un at the time and for me looked the likely winner or close to...so his rating should have some miles left in it too..