Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Viking Flagship]

Fair point Archie, though I do think it's possible to build some sort of picture of a race before the weights are out. I do plenty of work on the handicaps before the end of Feb, but then perhaps I'm a fool!

[Kevloaf]

Shocking the amount of money that came for Yanworth that was ill-informed really.

He opened 8/1 which I thought was staggering and got to 4s!

Very odd. All-in-all though, pretty irrelevant.

[archie]

Fair enough in an nrnb market with plenty of speculative bets.

[Kevloaf]

Can't have a strong opinion on any handicap until the weights are out even though 5lb is only one poor jump.

Finding a good jumper would be a good start if that is the case...

For the sake of conversation (as I haven;t really got anything notable to add in terms of a fancy right now)...

In a handicap like this are we likely to find any that are chucked in?
Any low enough to really put the others to the sword?
Or are we better looking at the classier, higher rated sorts, that will have their conditions on the day?

[archie]

I've been going to Cheltenham for over 30 years and never backed the winner of this. Think I'd better pass.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've been going to Cheltenham for over 30 years and never backed the winner of this. Think I'd better pass.

That's an achievement in itself, and similar to my record in the bumper!

[archie]

Only backed Dunguib in the Bumper but it paid for all the losers!

Pretty much the general rule. Doesn't matter how many losers you back if the winners pay for the losers. No difference if it's one race or the whole meeting.

[qzy]

Has any bookmaker apart from Sky priced up O O Seven for this?

[jono]

Has anyone got any strong opinions on this race? I honestly don't think I've ever been so opinionless on a Cheltenham race 3 weeks in advance - I just can't seem to find much of an angle on anything!

I've just read back through the whole thread and Jono makes a decent case for Robinsfirth. With the Tizzards seemingly hitting form at the right time could be an interesting one, although I always had him down as looking like he needed about 4 miles. I've had a small bet nrnb on The Storyteller just because I want him onside wherever he goes, but I suspect he might end up elsewhere.

From the Tizzard media day today it looks like Robinsfirth won't be going VF

[Viking Flagship]

From the Tizzard media day today it looks like Robinsfirth won't be going VF

Cheers Jono, didn't see that. Another one off the list!

[Folski]

From a quick look at the entries, I see Alpha Des Obeaux has an entry in this.

Several previous winners have either grade 1 hurdle form or a spin over hurdles, he has both.

Obviously, had his issues but has put in some decent performances this year.

He's been allotted 155 for the national, the same mark I believe Un Temp won off last year. I assume Phil Smith wouldn't be able to reduce this for the Ultima as it would make him look a bit silly.

Regarding the form its not that bad.

Take Total Recall out of the Munster National who he was giving 16lb to and is now rated (for National) 155 and Alpha Des Obeaux wins it by 11L, granted that is off 10lb lower in Ireland that my assumed rating here. Phil's Magic (3rd) has done ok in decent handicaps since.

Finished a down the field 4th in the Jwine Champion Chase, beat 17L. Outlander and Road To Respect have franked this form and more than deserve their chances in Gold Cup.

The beat A Toi Phil in a grade 2 at Clonmel. With Balko Des Flos in 3rd since 2nd in Lexus. ATP also won a grade 3 comfortably and ran a decent race in the John Durkan.

Beat 20L by Definitely Red at Aintree who has since won the Cotswold impressively.

Beat 14L in the Lexus.

Beat 8L by Presenting Percy in the Galmoy. Form since been franked by Diamond Cauchios and Presenting Percy (although some might not agree).

Last of the finishers in the Irish Gold Cup.

Mouse a great man to get them right for the day.

Am I mad?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Gold Present not running this weekend but entered for the Ultima

[Bayoffreedom]

Am I mad?

Not completely! He tired in the ground at Leopardstown but I thought he ran better than his finishing position (which was last, of course). I am intrigued by Snow Falcon for either this or the Plate. He jumps well, will go on better ground and is rated 10 pounds below his best hurdle form

[SeanRock]

If Elliott was to go down the handicap route with The Storyteller do we think this or the Brown Plate would be the target? I see he's similarly priced up for both.

[charlie]

If Elliott was to go down the handicap route with The Storyteller do we think this or the Brown Plate would be the target? I see he's similarly priced up for both.

10/1 to win any race.