Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

I see a little bit of money for Pendra today for this race, a horse talked about quite a bit in the Kim Muir thread, and still probably the most likely race, but what does everyone think of his chances in this race should he come here?

As Jono has pointed in the KM thread, the horse has a quite remarkable record when coming back from a long lay off, in fact, it seems the longer the lay off the better, he is clearly geared towards his seasonal debut.

He ran in this race 3 seasons ago, finishing 5th off of a 102 day break, and of course finish 2nd last season in the Kim Muir off of a break of 341 days.

I'm unsure how the stats look for him in this race compared with the Kim Muir? But given he is a 10 year old he is still incredibly lightly races.

[robith]

I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it

[Old Vic]

I see a little bit of money for Pendra today for this race, a horse talked about quite a bit in the Kim Muir thread, and still probably the most likely race, but what does everyone think of his chances in this race should he come here?

As Jono has pointed in the KM thread, the horse has a quite remarkable record when coming back from a long lay off, in fact, it seems the longer the lay off the better, he is clearly geared towards his seasonal debut.

He ran in this race 3 seasons ago, finishing 5th off of a 102 day break, and of course finish 2nd last season in the Kim Muir off of a break of 341 days.

I'm unsure how the stats look for him in this race compared with the Kim Muir? But given he is a 10 year old he is still incredibly lightly races.

He has a very nice weight for the Grand National and should sneak in at the bottom.

[doctorwu]

BOF,
Snow Falcon.
I can't see him coming here. Wouldn't want him too either as I don't think he'll get home in this race. I think they know that, so would think its the Plate.

[kinloch brae]

I don't see Snow Falcon at all. Far too many negatives. 5th in two Cheltenham runs, looking to travel well and finishing tamely both times. Had the run of the race in the Flogas and finished weakly again. Didn't jump hurdles well and really isn't that good over fences. He jumps some fine but is hesitant at too many others. In a big field he will surely need to jump better. I don't think soft ground is ideal for him either. He has been backed a few times in the past but not delivered. Suspect he will always be an under achiever. I am pretty sure Meade would have seen him as a graded horse for this year's Festival so if he comes here even the trainer will have revised his expectations downwards.

[Viking Flagship]

I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it

Genuinely considering doing the same Robith - and that for me would be very rare for a festival race, although I’m much better these days at not having a bet ‘for the sake of it’!

[doctorwu]

I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it

Stats
Only 2 horses meet all main stats
singlefarmpayment
Final Nudge (might go Kim Muir)
Gold Present met all the stats except the (80day run) stat.

[Kevloaf]

I don't see Snow Falcon at all. Far too many negatives. 5th in two Cheltenham runs, looking to travel well and finishing tamely both times. Had the run of the race in the Flogas and finished weakly again. Didn't jump hurdles well and really isn't that good over fences. He jumps some fine but is hesitant at too many others. In a big field he will surely need to jump better. I don't think soft ground is ideal for him either. He has been backed a few times in the past but not delivered. Suspect he will always be an under achiever. I am pretty sure Meade would have seen him as a graded horse for this year's Festival so if he comes here even the trainer will have revised his expectations downwards.

Intersting.... I've not got much time tonight (Tonight is the last night I'll spend quality time with the wife before the Saturday after the festival)

In response to the negatives you've got...

1. 5th in two runs at Cheltenham -
Came 5th in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle, which isn't bad at all. Certainly doesn't give me a negative about his abilility at the track.... Footpad was 4th in a CH and might win an Arkle 40 mins earlier... I think his 5th just showed he isn't a grade 1 hurdler. Also 5th in a Neptune beaten 5.5L, similar thoughts on that... doesn't prove he doesn't act around Cheltenham for me.

2. Finished tamely in the Flogas
Pretty confident that Flogas was the best piece of novice chase form we've seen (or will see outside of spring festivals) and to finish 5th beaten 5.5L again isn't a negative for me..it just bmeans he is a good handicapper rather than grade 1 novice chaser.

3. Didn't jump hurdles well, or fences either
Not something I've got time to look at now, wasn't a note I'd made before about him but will look at this again.

4. Soft ground not ideal for him
I'm still working on the basis it'll be good-to-soft, so not worried about this yet... but his highest RPR this season is on Soft ground and highest ever is Yielding to Soft... so that doens't worry me massively

5. Backed a few times in the past and not delivered/Suspect will always be an under achiever
Can't really argue that or qualify that point... if he gets well backed I'll see it as a positive that at least I am pciking out the right horses...if he doesn't, I'll still think I am right in identifying him haha

6. Pretty sure Meade thinks he was a graded horse...
Meade is usually pretty bullish .... and I haven't said and don't think Snow Falcon is a grade 1 winning horse... but I do think he can win the Ultima or Brown Plate at this years festival.


I've backed him NRNB in this and the Brown Plate, and wouldn't put anyone off either still.

[kinloch brae]

Intersting.... I've not got much time tonight (Tonight is the last night I'll spend quality time with the wife before the Saturday after the festival)

In response to the negatives you've got...

1. 5th in two runs at Cheltenham -
Came 5th in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle, which isn't bad at all. Certainly doesn't give me a negative about his abilility at the track.... Footpad was 4th in a CH and might win an Arkle 40 mins earlier... I think his 5th just showed he isn't a grade 1 hurdler. Also 5th in a Neptune beaten 5.5L, similar thoughts on that... doesn't prove he doesn't act around Cheltenham for me.

2. Finished tamely in the Flogas
Pretty confident that Flogas was the best piece of novice chase form we've seen (or will see outside of spring festivals) and to finish 5th beaten 5.5L again isn't a negative for me..it just bmeans he is a good handicapper rather than grade 1 novice chaser.

3. Didn't jump hurdles well, or fences either
Not something I've got time to look at now, wasn't a note I'd made before about him but will look at this again.

4. Soft ground not ideal for him
I'm still working on the basis it'll be good-to-soft, so not worried about this yet... but his highest RPR this season is on Soft ground and highest ever is Yielding to Soft... so that doens't worry me massively

5. Backed a few times in the past and not delivered/Suspect will always be an under achiever
Can't really argue that or qualify that point... if he gets well backed I'll see it as a positive that at least I am pciking out the right horses...if he doesn't, I'll still think I am right in identifying him haha

6. Pretty sure Meade thinks he was a graded horse...
Meade is usually pretty bullish .... and I haven't said and don't think Snow Falcon is a grade 1 winning horse... but I do think he can win the Ultima or Brown Plate at this years festival.


I've backed him NRNB in this and the Brown Plate, and wouldn't put anyone off either still.

He was fifth in the 2015 Neptune.

I won't dwell on it because I have already said the same elsewhere. I think the Flogas win was a good enough springboard for Monalee to take a poor JLT but with so many horses within a few lengths I don't think the form is as good as some have suggested. Snow Falcon sat in the box seat but having challenged off the final bend just fell away.

[Kevloaf]

He was fifth in the 2015 Neptune.

I won't dwell on it because I have already said the same elsewhere. I think the Flogas win was a good enough springboard for Monalee to take a poor JLT but with so many horses within a few lengths I don't think the form is as good as some have suggested. Snow Falcon sat in the box seat but having challenged off the final bend just fell away.

Yeah I edited the 1 run bit, I forgot to go back more than 2 years haha. 5th in a Neptune also not bad though!

[opatcho]

What’s the score with american?

[Viking Flagship]

What’s the score with american?

Unless anything’s changed in the last few days then this is the situation:

https://www.racinguk.com/news/harry-fry-not-ruling-out-gold-run-for-american

[kinloch brae]

Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.

[opatcho]

Unless anything’s changed in the last few days then this is the situation:

https://www.racinguk.com/news/harry-...n-for-american

thanks! hmmmm

[opatcho]

Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.

Coo Star is being tipped like it's going to bolt in, I can't see it at all! Happy for this to go off fav!