Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Kevloaf]

SFP goes to Yogi's tomorrow. Had an away day yesterday and is per Tom George "at the top of his game, comes into his own this time of year".

Positive comments indeed.

[BigChaang]

Are we all going to be kicking ourselves when Singlefarmpayment wins this in 12 days time? I keep coming back to him but don't want to back him.

Feel exactly the same Folski , been very disappointing to me this season ,But ??????.

[Folski]

Feel exactly the same Folski , been very disappointing to me this season ,But ??????.

I've the same nagging feeling that I had with Holywell and UTPT (1st time) when they won for SFP this year, will be backing him.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Does Snow Falcon run here do any of the lads/lasses in Ireland know?

[Folski]

Does Snow Falcon run here do any of the lads/lasses in Ireland know?

Don't think so

[Folski]

Does Snow Falcon run here do any of the lads/lasses in Ireland know?

Hope he does run in this, handicap mark 10lb below peak hurdle mark. Completely unexposed over 3m over fences. Didn't look to totally get the 3m last year in stayers though.

[Tenty]

I've the same nagging feeling that I had with Holywell and UTPT (1st time) when they won for SFP this year, will be backing him.

Yes will also be backing him. Nothing wrong with first two runs and third run was creditable. Obviously fourth run was disappointing jumping through one in the straight but worth backing.

[opatcho]

Traffic Fluide wins (40/1)

[Bigfish]

Traffic Fluide wins (40/1)

He' s going to run a mighty race. Dropped 13lb I think. Excellent form if you forgive his recent runs. He will be one of mine at 33s offered by Billy. Needs 2 1/2 M to show his best so maybe the Brown Advisory ?

[Folski]

In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.

[Quevega]

In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been award ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to lowest was 1lb which TDN was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years I have excluded all 11+ olds and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.

excellent work that.
And when you factor in the number of horses that have ran in the race before tending to run well the following or in subsequent years SFM is a solid choice

[Bigfish]

Thanks Folski , excellent work . Have you looked at the Brown Advisory yet.? Does Traffic Fluide figure? Cheers.

[Folski]

Thanks Folski , excellent work . Have you looked at the Brown Advisory yet.? Does Traffic Fluide figure? Cheers.

On the the novices now, be a while before I get there BF.

[Bigfish]

Thanks for the reply , carry on with your stirling work. I wait patiently.

[Can't Catch Me]

In the last 8 years of this 8 of 8 winners (as far as I went back) had been awarded ratings higher than what they won off.

The lowest differential from highest rating to won off rating was 1lb which was TDN. He was awarded 147 but ran in Hennessey off 141 due to time between run, he was subsequently dropped to 146.


2017 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 155 high 159
2016 - Un Temp Pour Tout off 148 high 154
2015 - The Druids Nephew off 146 high 147
2014 - Holywell off 145 high 158
2013 - Golden Chieftain off 132 high 142
2012 - Alfie Sherrin off 129 high 144
2011 - Bensalem off 143 high 153
2010 - Chief Dan George off 142 high 155

As horses 11+ have not won this in 20 years, I have excluded all 11+ horses and all winners had won either 0 or 1 handicap chase so I have removed anything with 2+ handicap chase wins (sorry Golden Present fans). 8 of 8 were novices or 2nd season chasers, anything more than a season removed from its novice season was taken out. 8 of 8 had placed listed form at a minimum. 7 of 8 had won over 3m, exception 2nd in G1 hurdle over 3m. Leaves us with the below.

17lb higher - Gwencily Berbas.
10lb higher - Snow Falcon, Missed Approach.
06lb higher - Bigbadjohn.
03lb higher - Alpha Des Obeaux, Rock The Kasbah, General Principle.
02lb higher - Singlefarmpayment.
01lb higher - O O Seven, Vintage Clouds, Tintern Theatre.

Narrowing that down to 3 think I would go ADO, SFP & Snow Falcon.

Top stuff folski. Does that mean you have included their hurdle rating in their all time high though?