Mares Hurdle 2018

[Kevloaf]

OnVroum Vroum Mag - The video from Ricci seems to be saying she'll only run at the festival in Apple's Jade isn't in it ("market shake up")... 8/1 NRNB actually doesn't seem that unreasonable if that was the case...

I have her well clear of Let's Dance anyway and Limini isn't running... if AJ didn't turn up, I think she'd only run if she was 100% - bit of a bet to nothing IMO!

I had 2 pts on VVM at the start of the season at 10/1 but was lucky enough to cash them out.... but I do think 8/1 NRNB could have some appeal given the circumstances. I'd say she is only about 20% likely to run though so might be better ways to tie up my money

[Kevloaf]

Michael O'Leary and Matt Chapman just discussed Apple's Jade.... Chapman did his best to get Apple's KJade in the Stayers or the CH. O'Leary said he couldn't care less about the stayers and she isn't fast enough to win a Champion. If you can win the mares race, why wouldn't you go there.

[ryanh97]

Is Lets Dance without AJ 2/1 value?

[Scooby91]

Is Lets Dance without AJ 2/1 value?

Not imo but the minorly injured jers girl is at 10/1 ew. Nrnb Giving you effectively the 1st 4 places. And on the form book she's the arguable fav to finish 2nd to Apple's jade.

[Robbante]

In a position with Apple’s Jade (largely in decent looking multiples) where I’m looking to cover all eventualities over the next month (for peace of mind and also second guessing). Happy to use up a couple of points in doing so, and have added 1pt ew on La Bague Au Roi at 14s for this race as I see her as the main danger currently. Possibly slightly more likely to go stayers but that division is now looking way stronger than it was a month ago so happy to take the chance. Have also added 1pt on Benie Des Dieux at 20s. She’s the one horse that Mullins has who him and Ricci might feel could give Apples Jade a real race. Why wouldn’t they let her take her chance here and not give Apples Jade a penalty kick? Can go back chasing for the rest of her career after if not successful. Realise that it’s most likely 3 pts where I won’t get a run for my money and throwing pts away won’t be for all, but Le Bague Au Roi especially is way overpriced at 14s, I can definitely see her coming here and wouldn’t see her out of the 3

[Kevloaf]

I think jono made a case for Kayf Grace earlier this season.....

The "ante post" angle is up on the ATR mega site, and Gary Nutting must have been watching

Published 6th February

KAYF GRACE has loads of untapped potential ahead of her possible next run at Newbury this weekend and could prove the ‘dark horse’ for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle.

Nicky Henderson’s lightly raced 8yo is among the market leaders for the fiercely competitive Betfair Hurdle, in which just hitting the frame would rate as a good performance against the boys.

Whether she takes in that race on route to Cheltenham or not, she’s already one to be interested in back against her own gender following her stylish success in open handicap company at Kempton over Christmas.

That was only her third start over hurdles - she ran too free on her first run for nearly a year when a disappointing favourite at Ascot previously - and confirmed the promise of her debut victory in this sphere last season.

Closely related to Denman and other staying sorts on her dam’s side, there is every chance she will relish the stiffer stamina test.

Prior to that she had shown very smart bumper form culminating in a gutsy win over hot favourite Augusta Kate in the mares’ race at Aintree.

The Willie Mullins-trained mare beat her stablemate Let’s Dance at Fairyhouse last Easter and that one is second favourite behind odds-on title holder Apple’s Jade here, which adds further lustre to the selection’s prospects.

Kayf Grace clearly needs to step up again if she’s to trouble the favourite but apart from her obvious scope for improvement experience wise, the move up to 2m 4f could also bring significant progress.

Closely related to Denman and other staying sorts on her dam’s side, there is every chance she will relish the stiffer stamina test.

Henderson has another interesting entry in the more experienced Verdana Blue, who already boasts smart open handicap form and could be dangerous back in mares-only company.

But the trainer has described her as “speedy” and “a two-miler”, which would have to be a concern for her over this longer trip.

[Kevloaf]

Don't think I've shared my bets on this race for a while (if at all)...

Apples Jade 2.5 pts @ 15/1 (3/1 and 3/1 double with Might Bite King George)
Let's Dance 2.5 pts e/w @ 10/1 (placed when the news/stable tour came out saying Limini was out for the NH season)
Kayf Grace 1 pt e/w @ 33/1 (liked the case made here by jono earlier in the season)

Without AJ
NRNB Indian Stream 0.5 pts @ 50/1 Indian Stream (good case made in this thread also!)
NRNB De Bon Coeur 2 pts win (also based on comments in here, risk free IMO)

I had 1 pt win on VVM at 10/1 that was cashed out full stake from very early over summer...

I have an almighty amount rolling on to Apple's Jade if at least one of the horses before her runs well...

others...

I do like La Bague Au Roi (won't back as I feel 3m is what she wants and 10/1 a little short NRNB as I think stayers is a big consideration)

I really do NOT like Let's Dance, but won't mind being wrong at the price I had her at. I would perhaps worry she'd be ridden to WIN the race, will fail and not place if I was lining up a without AJ or each way banker type bet on her!

I can see why Benie Des Dieux would be interesting, and 7/1 NRNB or 9/2 without AJ I'd perhaps take the latter... as she is unexposed and therefore could be better than LD...

I couldn't be any more confident about a horse than I am Apple's Jade in this though - still the most likely winner on Day 1...

[kinloch brae]

Unless shorties are your game you can only really look at the without market because Apples Jade should win again. It doesn't look any more difficult than last year.

Lagostovegas and Any Currencies were the two I gave a second look to but both will need to improve. There's usually something in this race that seems to run above itself.

[SeanRock]

Whatever happened to Mags Mullins’ She’s Otto haven’t heard a peep about her in ages. She was very well thought of a year or two back?

[Kevloaf]

Disappointed with Kayf Grace then in the Betfair Hurdle.... hopefully better ground and a longer trip bring out some improvement in terms of this race.

[Kevloaf]

David Mullins who just won on Benie Des Dieux has just sadi without prompting that "you can do anything with her" "she jumpos her fences like hurdles" and "you could easily go back over hurdles with her"....
I'd say this is the target 100%.....

I'd definitely fancy her over Let's Dance.... the 9/2 NRNB without AJ looking more appealing than it was (and I'd already backed it)

**its now 4/1 NRNB BOG w/o Apple's Jade

[Scooby91]

This race is going to massively cut up at the front of the market. Apple's jade deserves to be her price would be very hard to see her beat. There's huge value behind her.

I still think
Arthuria 16/1
Jers girl 10/1

Are massively over priced ew nrnb in the without Apple's jade market. Effectively giving you 4 places and a chance for the win.

Asthuria is on the incline her form at the end of last season was Good, I personally think this is her trip, she's showed her well being over fences. Should be a lot shorter

Jers girl.
Has been sidelined with a minor injury if she makes it here which I'd be confident she would her form warrants her to be be on the premises behind Apple's jade I couldn't see her out of the 4. Bar a fall. Shes the form pick to finish 2nd

[ComplyOrDie]

I still think
Arthuria 16/1
Jers girl 10/1

Are massively over price ew nrnb in the without Apple's jade market. Effectively giving you 4 places and a chance for the win.

Asthuria is on the incline her form at the end of last season was Good, I personally think this is her trip, she's showed her well being over fences. Should be a lot shorter

Jers girl.
Has been sidelined with a minor injury if she makes it here which I'd be confident she would her form warrants her to be be on the premises behind Apple's jade I couldn't see her out of the 4. Bar a fall. Shes the form pick to finish 2nd

Jers Girl is ridiculously overpriced for me in the without market, one I am keen to add to my book ASAP!

[Kevloaf]

This race is going to massively cut up at the front of the market. Apple's jade deserves to be her price would be very hard to see her beat. There's huge value behind her.

I still think
Arthuria 16/1
Jers girl 10/1

Are massively over priced ew nrnb in the without Apple's jade market. Effectively giving you 4 places and a chance for the win.

Asthuria is on the incline her form at the end of last season was Good, I personally think this is her trip, she's showed her well being over fences. Should be a lot shorter

Jers girl.
Has been sidelined with a minor injury if she makes it here which I'd be confident she would her form warrants her to be be on the premises behind Apple's jade I couldn't see her out of the 4. Bar a fall. Shes the form pick to finish 2nd

Has there been an update of Jers Girl.... I read she was less than 50/50 to make it here? I'd certainly fancy her.

Asthuria looks held at 2m by Benie Des Dieux and BDD wants further, so I wouldn't have her over BDD despite the price

[Scooby91]

Jers Girl is ridiculously overpriced for me in the without market, one I am keen to add to my book ASAP!

Colins sister confirmed stayers

Benie see dieux vunlikely runner, not entitled to be as short as she is anyway.

Is bague au roi better over further jers girl has the beating of her over this trip. Likely stayers.

Let's dance
Beatable behind AJ hasn't showed her best form this season jers girl would have a decent chance of beating her on all known form between the 2

Vroum vroum unlikely runner. Is she the same horse.

Verdana blue - county hurdle.

Augusta Kate likely further not enough pace to challenge for the win.

There really isn't much there

If either or both jers girl / asthuria run.
I'll be very happy.