Pertemps Final 2018

[doctorwu]

well pleased with the weights for Glenloe,Sort it Out,The Organist, and A Great view might sneak in. Happy days.

[Kevloaf]

Kev,
Any idea what time the weights are out today???

Did you think it was interesting entering Glenloe up for a qualifier over here? no intention of running Imo, just looking to see what mark he'd get?? they gave him 2lbs
Sort it Out ran an eye-catching race in Ireland recently coming from a long way off. Its tough finding the right JP horse.

Sorry, a bit late...I think they're out now

I agree it is tough to find the right JP horse...as a general rule they're ALL overbet!

[Can't Catch Me]

Delta Work jumping out to me in this I must say.

[kinloch brae]

Delta Work jumping out to me in this I must say.

Hopefully, he has come out of that last race well. He is easily my best handicap bet and the only horse I have backed twice. The original 20/1 was tempting enough but the 33/1 was a complete rick by Hills. He is not far off being favourite with Ladbrokes. If they can get Russell on board he probably will be.

[Can't Catch Me]

Hopefully, he has come out of that last race well. He is easily my best handicap bet and the only horse I have backed twice. The original 20/1 was tempting enough but the 33/1 was a complete rick by Hills. He is not far off being favourite with Ladbrokes. If they can get Russell on board he probably will be.

Totally agree kb. The 33/1 push out was very odd. Suppose they still have the option of the Martin Pipe but they have more than enough ammo for that, so fingers crossed this is the race.

[kinloch brae]

Totally agree kb. The 33/1 push out was very odd. Suppose they still have the option of the Martin Pipe but they have more than enough ammo for that, so fingers crossed this is the race.

He is nicely in here, 34 in the Martin Pipe. I don't think there was much point going for the qualifier if this wasn't the plan. More than hopeful.

[Istabraq]

Delta Work jumping out to me in this I must say.

I'd struggle backing a 5yo in this, even more so an April foal (so still effectively a 4yo).
Will be run at a decent clip, on the new course, over 3m, I'd prefer to be looking at something with guaranteed stamina off a true pace...

[Can't Catch Me]

I'd struggle backing a 5yo in this, even more so an April foal (so still effectively a 4yo).
Will be run at a decent clip, on the new course, over 3m, I'd prefer to be looking at something with guaranteed stamina off a true pace...

Which is exactly my only worry Ista! KB... I suppose it made sense as a prep as it was not going to do his mark any harm and gave them more options.

[kinloch brae]

I'd struggle backing a 5yo in this, even more so an April foal (so still effectively a 4yo).
Will be run at a decent clip, on the new course, over 3m, I'd prefer to be looking at something with guaranteed stamina off a true pace...

I think better ground and a decent pace is exactly what he wants. Off that I will be disappointed he doesn't jump as well as anything the field and I think he will have more than enough experience. The slow pace in the qualifier didn't suit at all and he pulled much too hard. It isn't a great renewal of the race either.

[Can't Catch Me]

If you are a trends man, the first thing Gaulstats says is to avoid 5 and 9 year olds! As always, would need to look at how many with chances have ran...

[kinloch brae]

Which is exactly my only worry Ista! KB... I suppose it made sense as a prep as it was not going to do his mark any harm and gave them more options.

The jockey booking and ride would suggest they were just trying to qualify.

[Can't Catch Me]

The jockey booking and ride would suggest they were just trying to qualify.

I agree kb. Not trying to find negatives as he really stands out to me in the race, as I said. Just trying to temper it with the potential worries I have. It's a tough race for a novice I think. But he's had plenty of experience this season as you say.

You could also argue the jockey booking was to give the lad a go on the horse before the Martin Pipe.

[Istabraq]

I think better ground and a decent pace is exactly what he wants. Off that I will be disappointed he doesn't jump as well as anything the field and I think he will have more than enough experience. The slow pace in the qualifier didn't suit at all and he pulled much too hard. It isn't a great renewal of the race either.

I'm not sure what the 5yo form is like in the race (could have a host of good place performances) but I know there's only been one winner of that age (Pragada, 1988), and whilst we all know trends do break occasionally they are built up over many years so there has to be something in the 30 year drought.

The fact he is also a month shy of his fifth birthday would only increase concern.
I remember we had the same discussion last year with Genie in a Bottle in the 4 miler who was short of his 6th birthday by a couple of months when the tapes went up...

[kinloch brae]

My approach is mainly intuitive and for me it is all about assessing the individual horse. For that reason I rarely gives stats a second look and I won't be looking here. If people don't think he can win purely because he is a 5yo that's up to them. I would spin the positive and suggest he has more improvement in him than any of the others. I often think that sometimes when people miss a price they then do everything to convince themselves they have done the right thing. If you offered someone 33/1 Delta Work would they bite your hand off or say he has no chance because he is 5yo?

[Istabraq]

Each to their own KV, and as someone who opposed Master Minded and Moscow Flyer on age alone I know trends can lead you down the wrong path, I use them now to build a profile of what's needed to win a specific race and, as I said, no winner under 6yo for 30 years is enough to put me off but I completely respect this isn't an approach everyone follows...