Rubys rides at the 2018 festival.

[jono]

If Faugheen DOESN'T return (the more likely scenario)

Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Chacun Pour Soi
CH - Yorkhill
Mares - Limini

Ballymore - Getabird
RSA - Bacardys
CC - Min
Bumper - Stay Humble

JLT - Rathvinden
Ryanair - UDS
Stayers - Nichols Canyon
Mares Nov - Salsaretta

Albert Bartlett - Ballyward
Gold Cup - Douvan

If Faugheen DOES return

Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Melon
CH - Faugheen
Mares - Limini

Ballymore - Getabird
RSA - Bacardys
CC - Douvan
Bumper - Stay Humble

JLT - Chacun Pour Soi
Ryanair - Min
Stayers - Nichols Canyon
Mares Nov - Salsaretta

Albert Bartlett - Ballyward
Gold Cup - Yorkhill


The return of Faugheen will be massive for so many runners. Imo they will wait until the Morgiana and possibly the Hattons Grace to get a run into Faugheen. If that doesn't materialise then Yorkhill will revert back to hurdles. Which could in turn change things up regarding Douvan going Gold Cup.

I also think it may well dictate what happens with the novice chasers, or lack of as it seems right now. Both the Arkle and JLT have been a Mullins benefit over the last couple of years but it's hard to pinpoint a runner bar the Rich Ricci mentioned Chacun Pour Soi in these 2 races.

Mullins often starts off his novice chasers quite late in the season:

Douvan had his chase debut on December 11th
Vautour November 23rd
UDS November 27th
Champagne Fever November 16th
Yorkhill December 17th
Black Hercules December 14th

The Morgiana this year is on the 19th November. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Faugheen was to make a recovery and look like he retains most of his ability then Melon or Cilaos Emery will go over fences and for the Arkle and, like Yorkhill, Mullins is keeping that open until the Morgiana. The wait will be no harm whatsoever based on when the above horses have made their chase debuts.

It obviosuly depends massively on the horse and whether they are future chasers but it's also (imo) worth noting how many Supreme runners go onto be chasers the following year with Mullins:

2016
Min - Arkle
Petit Mouchoir (moved to Elliott so i'll leave him out)
Belshill - RSA

2015
Douvan - Arkle
Shaneshill - RSA
Tell Us More - Chasing
Alvisio Ville - Chasing

2014
Vautour - JLT
Wicklow Brave - Hurdles
Valsuer Lido - JLT

2013
Champagne Fever - Arkle
Un Atout - Chasing
Pique Sous - hurdles

From his 12 runners only 2 horses stayed over hurdles. The rest went onto go novice chasing the following year. I find it hard to think not one of Melon, Cilaos Emery, Bunk Off Early, Crack Mome won't be going for either the Arkle or JLT come March

[archie]

I find it hard to think not one of Melon, Cilaos Emery, Bunk Off Early, Crack Mome won't be going for either the Arkle or JLT come March

Melon - they are convinced that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse. Is very inexperienced and young enough to go chasing next season if necessary. I think he's almost ready to go so it's early enough to switch to chasing this season but Willie doesn't have a record for switching mid-season.
Cilaos Emory - still a fair way off a run. Mixed messages from the stable and his route probably depends on other horses.
Bunk Off Early - late back in after his bout of colic so won't be out until Christmas. Chasing not ruled out but, at this stage, hurdles looks more likely.
Crack Mome - no news of this one.

Of the four, the breeding screams Cilaos Emory as the most likely chaser.

There were one or two who had a curtailed novice hurdle season but were seen as potential festival horses when fit. I've no news of Saturnas but Cadmium will certainly go novice chasing.

[JackieMoon33]

Melon - they are convinced that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse. Is very inexperienced and young enough to go chasing next season if necessary. I think he's almost ready to go so it's early enough to switch to chasing this season but Willie doesn't have a record for switching mid-season.
Cilaos Emory - still a fair way off a run. Mixed messages from the stable and his route probably depends on other horses.
Bunk Off Early - late back in after his bout of colic so won't be out until Christmas. Chasing not ruled out but, at this stage, hurdles looks more likely.
Crack Mome - no news of this one.

Of the four, the breeding screams Cilaos Emory as the most likely chaser.

There were one or two who had a curtailed novice hurdle season but were seen as potential festival horses when fit. I've no news of Saturnas but Cadmium will certainly go novice chasing.

Excellent information Archie

[Geordieboy83]

This post is obviously guess work but a great post, I think Cilaos Emery may well go Arkle. I think MIN will go CC with Ruby on board IF Douvan don't go CC route

[jono]

Excellent information Archie

Agreed, great info. Cheers archie

[Kevloaf]

There were one or two who had a curtailed novice hurdle season but were seen as potential festival horses when fit. I've no news of Saturnas but Cadmium will certainly go novice chasing.

Just had a look at Cadmium's debu for you. Won with plenty in hand over Call The Taxi who has some quite nice form in the book.

Do you know the reason she didn't run again?

[archie]

Just had a look at Cadmium's debu for you. Won with plenty in hand over Call The Taxi who has some quite nice form in the book.

Do you know the reason she didn't run again?

As I understand it he had an injury similar to Douvan. He jumped the brush hurdles beautifully so we're looking forward to seeing him over fences.

[Kevloaf]

No chance Douvan ends up being the mount of anyone but Ruby, if he turns up.

I'll have a go, as I am wasting my day off work anyway

Supreme - Annamix
Arkle - Cilaos Emery
CH - Melon
Mares - Limini

Ballymore - Getabird
RSA - Bacardys
CC - Douvan
Bumper - Aione

JLT - Chacun Pour Soi
Ryanair - Un De Sceaux
Stayers - Nichols Canyon
Mares Nov - Salsaretta

Albert Bartlett - Ballyward (Lazy guess!)
County Hurdle - Arctic Fire
Gold Cup - Yorkhill

Time to revisit this thread.... 23rd October ... Looks like UDS and Melon are my only hopes

[Scooby91]

Time to revisit this thread.... 23rd October ... Looks like UDS and Melon are my only hopes

I was hoping this thread got lost.
Shows how hard it is.

[Geordieboy83]

It certainly is a tough game lads.

[Hurricane fly]

Think we could guess now and still not get 50%

[jono]

With the target for Yorkhill even more up in the air after today...

Who does Ruby ride if:

A) Yorkhill goes for the Ryanair and joins Un De Sceaux

B) Yorkhill goes Champion Hurdle and joins Faugheen

In either of the above scenerios I would have usually taken it as an easy answer. If A) then Yorkhill would clearly be held in a higher regard and B) if he did go Champion Hurdle it would either be in the absence of Faugheen or Faugheen would be so far below form that Ruby would jump ship.

I'm not so sure now with Yorkhill having plenty to prove.

I think Yorkhill over hurdles would fare no better than if 'todays' Faugheen runs to that same form in March. And you'll always have that slight thinking that it could come back with Faugheen however small.

In The Ryanair, although Yorkhill would look to get his optimum conditions - Cheltenham, 2m4 - that wouldn't be enough to give him a chance on the way he ran today. Compared to the current champion and a horse in UDS who has had the perfect prep going into the race. Never thought there would actually be a decision there to make previously but it would be hard to turn UDS down on who each of their seasons have gone so far?

I would personally draw a line through Yorkhill today but where as beforehand I would have thought wherever he lined up at the festival Ruby would have been onboard, that may no longer be a given? And if that's not the case, his chances suddenly decrease as he is a must for him...

[Kevloaf]

Be an incredibly bold shout to have Yorkhill in the CH in his first hurdle run of the season

Also bold to be "off" UDS when he's proven that he's in good form still this season wheras we have no evidence Yorkhill is the same horse as last year.

I didn't think there was much chance of Yorkhill lining up WITHOUT Ruby on, but I think that is much more likely after yesterday (obviously).

I couldn't have Yorkhill on my mind UNLESS Ruby chose him over UDS in the Ryanair.