Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

[billymag]

Johnny Ward Tweeted
Spoke to G Elliott there in trainers' tea room for @IRY2017 – one interesting comment with a view to Cheltenham. "Samcro probably jumps a hurdle too good to be a real good two-miler"

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was watching the wrong horse. Thought he was beat!

[Kevloaf]

Johnny Ward Tweeted
Spoke to G Elliott there in trainers' tea room for @IRY2017 – one interesting comment with a view to Cheltenham. "Samcro probably jumps a hurdle too good to be a real good two-miler"

Does that mean he gives them too much air to be a Supreme horse? Am I reading correctly between the lines?

[Kevloaf]

I was watching the wrong horse. Thought he was beat!

hahahahha

A legendary Fat Jockey contributor.... can't even read a race card we'll have people jumping back to betfair if you keep that up

[SAMCRO]

Does that mean he gives them too much air to be a Supreme horse? Am I reading correctly between the lines?

thats the way i took it. Really impressive performance, reminded me of Faugheen.

[Kevloaf]

thats the way i took it. Really impressive performance, reminded me of Faugheen.

Cannot see any other race now then...

PP have him at 20s Supreme, 5s Ballymore.... I know it isn't the same as the Mullins yard but the Irish bookie wouldn't be laying 20s about this horse if he was going to turn up surely?

[The Beast]

Well that was better than i expected , boom Samcro. Whats going to come second then comes march , fresh air i suspect.

[billymag]

According to The Racing Post ratings Samcro ran to RPR 146. To give that figure some context these are the figures achieved by previous winners of the Neptune.
The winner of last years Neptune ran to RPR 152 at the festival.
Yorkhill RPR156.
Windsor Park RPR152
Faugheen RPR155
The New One RPR159
Simonsig RPR 162!!!!

[billymag]

In fact just looked at those previous 6 renewals of the Neptune and looked at the RPR the 3rd placed horse achieved and they were as follows, 149,146,147,149,151,148. So the 146 achieved today in the RPR assessors eye's is just short of what is needed to place in most Neptunes. With this is in mind Im wondering if the 7/1 available isn't a shade on the high side!!!!! Didn't think it be saying that ever at this stage of the season!

[Scooby91]

In fact just looked at those previous 6 renewals of the Neptune and looked at the RPR the 3rd placed horse achieved and they were as follows, 149,146,147,149,151,148. So the 146 achieved today in the RPR assessors eye's is just short of what is needed to place in most Neptunes. With this is in mind Im wondering if the 7/1 available isn't a shade on the high side!!!!! Didn't think it be saying that ever at this stage of the season!

Ricci has 18 novices antey, winter soldier, Francin etc..., mullins/ Jared sullivan have some nice ones.... real steel...... . Jp has many , You have the ptp horses like cool getaway palmers hill, white moon ,slate house. Madison to Monroe ..... all going straight over hurdles
Bumper horses, lalor , red jack, early doors, getabird, Sam brown, if the cap fits , Pym , western Ryder, hollow graphic, claimantakingforgan

Despite the rpr I genuinely think if the cap fits, did more on his debut than samcro,
I like samcro, but he's definitely over hyped, for what hes done so far, which for me is Good, as he takes up a good chunk of the market for aslong as he stays unbeaten.

[Kevloaf]

Quite interesting billy. I try not to take the ratings in to account this early on (as I am sure you're not doing) but certainly food for thought!

I do think 7/1 is a decent little price. A few horses I like are still 7/1., unfortunately not all in the same place - but no more on Samcro for now..... he was double figures for any race a week or so ago so we need to just let some other horses have a go at getting a rating on the board

[billymag]

I think RPRs are a useful guide, but are only someones opinion, albeit based on evidence and stats built up over years. Im genuinely excited after seeing Samcros debut over hurdles today and on top of the fact that he was the highest rated bumper horse last year I actually think 7/1 is a reasonable price.
Scooby91 you make a great point though about the number of horses we are going to see coming out in the near future and some of these will also be running to some big figures. I would struggle though to accept that If The Cap Fits did more on debut than Samcro did today but I respect your opinion and look forward to seeing him back up that run in better company, just like Samcro is going to have to do. Feels like the season is really getting going.

[Scooby91]

My working is as follows.
If the cap fits 1st won with any ammount In hand

2nd beaten 8 lengths
blue cavelier won his bumper then had nice horses braquen dor and ballyhill behind him when stepped up in class, he since moved to Nichols who trains braquen dor

3rd beaten 14 lengths
station master won 2 ptps and a class 3 bumper at Aintree by 11 lengths in very nice fashion.

4th beaten 19 lengths
ennifscey oscar was 2nd in the Aintree champion bumper.

I think it was a hot novice hurdle, I expect him to win in the same fashion under a penalty and the horses behind to go on and be very competitive in the novice ranks.

Just my opinion and obviously samcro will be stepped up and has every chance,

[billymag]

Yes good points Scooby look forward to seeing him out again soon.

[Geordieboy83]

Very interesting point on ratings billy, 7/1 still a decent price for me, but feel I have enough on at the moment, will move onto next ante-post bet