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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine
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Or look at it this way, he's 16/1 for the Supreme, 5/1 for the Neptune, not one race has been mentioned of as his target, so one price must be wrong!!Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 14 November 2017, 01:42 PM. -
Gordon Elliot did mention in one of his stable tours that he see's him as a 2m5f horse, so I can only assume that's part to do with the difference in prices for these races.Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostComment
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I think many have said he doesn't lack the speed for 2m either, I personally think he will go for the Ballymore, but he's too short now for me, given he could end up in the Supreme.Originally posted by jkite16 View PostComment
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You could argue on form that 5/1 is too short for this race for Samcro...
You could also argue that you HAVE to factor in the style and hype in terms of 5/1 being value ... IF he wins a solid yard stick so his collateral form gets done substance, he'll be shorter again ... so taking 5/1 now might be a good price on the morning, so isn't a bad price now.
I wouldn't personally back now at 5/1 inn this race, but I was already invested at 16s 14s and 12s so that's obvious in hindsightComment
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Honest assessment on what he's done on the track.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
14/1.
All the hype davys comments etc.
10/1.
Wins a grade 3 8/1
Wins a grade 1.
7/2
My honest opinionhttps://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!Comment
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Very true Kev, and you could also argue, given Samcro has had a run and is 5/1, the other side of the fence you have a horse like Annamix who hasn't seen a track yet in the UK and is as short as 8/1 in places then Samcro wouldn't appear to be a bad price at all.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
It is all a matter of opinion and how you, as an individual, view a price, personally I wouldn't go in now at 5/1 nor would I touch Annamix at 8/1 for the Supreme.
It may also be fair to say that many on this forum, including myself, have above and beyond them 2 prices quoted, so from that respect it may not look great value now.Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 14 November 2017, 02:03 PM.Comment
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Honest assessment on what he's done on the track. 12-Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
14/1.
All the hype davys comments etc.
10/1.
Wins a grade 3 8/1
Wins a grade 1.
7/2
My honest opinionhttps://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!Comment
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Elliot has said he could move him up to 2.5m, he also said that he had the pace to be a top 2m horse. In my minds eye he's looks a perfect supreme horse. With the pace in the Supreme you don't get a breather like the Neptune.Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostComment
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Let's have a reality check here, the days of ante post prices being logical are long gone and the hype machine has taken over. When it comes to novice form I really have to disagree with any real 'substance', especially early on in the season. Taking form lines literally that Horse A only beat Horse B by 5 lengths whereas Horse C beat Horse B by 1 length is dangerous. There is not a trainer alive that will instruct their jockey on debut to go out and win by as far as possible. Most horses winning maidens or novice hurdles could most definitely win by further but there is nothing to gain by doing so. Add in that the other horses in those races have different objectives (handicap marks etc) and it becomes unreliable at best.Comment
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Obviously we've not seen what he'd be up against, but completely agree he'd be rightful fav for a Supreme.Originally posted by doctorwu View Post
As a 'gambling yard' you'd think they'd be mopping up the bigger prices if they we're wrong though?
Could be waiting for the right time to strike!Comment
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lets see if Samcro heads down the Moscow Flyer/Deloitte route. That should answer some questions.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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If the cap fits faces a horse I liked 1st time out in demon daunou, I would however expect him to win today before going on to bigger and better things.
White moon in the last at Exeter faces stronger opposition than he did the 1st time out, it looked to be a very weak race. so will be interesting to see if he can win here, would be impressive if he could stretch away in the same manner.https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!Comment
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Well, Minds Eye won, beating Blow By Blow in the process, as I said previously though this means nothing to me personally yet because of the way Samcro won on debut anyway. Testing times ahead for Samcro, and I'm hoping there is substance to the hype in better races to come.Originally posted by Scooby91 View PostComment
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Nice performance that from If The Cap Fits. Looking like a good little bet.Originally posted by Scooby91 View PostComment
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Blow By Blow has drifted from 1/4 to 2/1C, off the track over a year and over a trip that looks like it'll be too short for him.... would expect a huge step forward next time, and it makes this race quite hard to read IMO.
Certainly isn't a negative for Samcro, but wouldn't see it as a positive even though be beat the winner (minds Eye) 15L last time.Comment
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