JLT Novices 2018

[Hurricane fly]

If this was a handicap Finians Oscar would look like the greatest plot in the history of handicaps

But it’s not

[Zipiter]

Is this Alboum Photo's definite target (I know its impossible to be certain given the trainer)??

Has there been any news on him since his fall at Christmas?

[jono]

I can't see Finian's Oscar winning at Cheltenham but bear with me just for the sake of conversation...

On the basis that:

This race could cut up a fair bit and that he did only lose out to Benatar by a short head at Ascot when giving 5 pounds, a horse who has impressed over fences and is 4th fav for this race currently...there's a very small chance all might somehow come right for the horse

But then...

This won’t hurt him, having gone back over hurdles for a bit of confidence. We might even give him a little spin next month, back in a novice chase and then go in the two-and-a-half-miler at Cheltenham.

If there is anyone around that still does fancy or clings to hope of him winning i'd be extremely concerned they want to get another run into him next month. Would be a very hard campaigning of the horse imo, even more so than what has gone on so far

[kinloch brae]

Really struggling with this now that Whittington appears intent on steering Saint Calvados towards inevitable defeat in the Arkle. Why even waste the entry in this, particularly if you really believe Bigmatre wants another half mile, even though he didn't look like he did on Saturday and hasn't looked like he did in any of his races?

Hopefully, something will catch the eye in the next few weeks, otherwise it is looking like a no bet race.

[Kevloaf]

Really struggling with this now that Whittington appears intent on steering Saint Calvados towards inevitable defeat in the Arkle. Why even waste the entry in this, particularly if you really believe Bigmatre wants another half mile, even though he didn't look like he did on Saturday and hasn't looked like he did in any of his races?

Hopefully, something will catch the eye in the next few weeks, otherwise it is looking like a no bet race.

A no bet race? What is one of them?




What don't you like about the main protagonists KB?

Willoughby Court
Invitation Only NRNB?
Benetar
Al Boum Photo NRNB?

Nothing in the Flogas entries?

Kemboy? The Storyteller?


I don't think anything is standout at the prices now... but interested to hear your opinion

[Kevloaf]

I can't see Finian's Oscar winning at Cheltenham but bear with me just for the sake of conversation...

On the basis that:

This race could cut up a fair bit and that he did only lose out to Benatar by a short head at Ascot when giving 5 pounds, a horse who has impressed over fences and is 4th fav for this race currently...there's a very small chance all might somehow come right for the horse

To carry on for the sake of conversation....Who would you rather be on....

Benetar 10/1 NRNB or Finian's Oscar 16/1 NRNB

I think the latter. Despite everything, giving 5 lbs and getting beaten by a shoulder is worth the 6 extra pts on the price?

I will not be putting a penny on personally, as I already have 2 pts on Finian's Oscar at 10/1 win from last year (Not to mention some multiples that have all of a suddenly sprung back to life)..... but I do think Benetar's price is potentially too tight based on FO's....

[Vautour]

To carry on for the sake of conversation....Who would you rather be on....

Benetar 10/1 NRNB or Finian's Oscar 16/1 NRNB

I think the latter. Despite everything, giving 5 lbs and getting beaten by a shoulder is worth the 6 extra pts on the price?

I will not be putting a penny on personally, as I already have 2 pts on Finian's Oscar at 10/1 win from last year (Not to mention some multiples that have all of a sudden sprung back to life)..... but I do think Benetar's price is potentially too tight based on FO's....

I'm back in on Finians!

Granted bet365 let me cash out my multiple with him in it for 60% of the stake and allowed me to put that back on the same bet to get the same return with NRNB. Seems crazy.

If he goes straight there I give him a smidge of a chance if he somehow finds something and stops scaring himself when he sees a fence. Just read that back and that seems crazy too!

I'm delighted with this news though purely because I have a lot of early season bets with him in it and it's good to know I at least get a run for my money regardless of how small his chance is. Some of them are quite tidy too - B D'Air, cause of Causes, Finians and Minella Rocco in the National for a mill.

[Kevloaf]

I'm back in on Finians!

Granted bet365 let me cash out my multiple with him in it for 60% of the stake and allowed me to put that back on the same bet to get the same return with NRNB. Seems crazy.

If he goes straight there I give him a smidge of a chance if he somehow finds something and stops scaring himself when he sees a fence. Just read that back and that seems crazy too!

I'm delighted with this news though purely because I have a lot of early season bets with him in it and it's good to know I at least get a run for my money regardless of how small his chance is. Some of them are quite tidy too - B D'Air, cause of Causes, Finians and Minella Rocco in the National for a mill.

Fingers crossed for that one...

This race has gone fropm being the one I thought would be the STRONGEST at the start of the season, to loloking the one with the least depth.

[cwright23]

Lads I actually think FO is a knocking bet at 16/1.. obviously the bare form of giving Ben 5lbs beaten a neck is decent but in reality he couldn’t of jumped any worse that day.. we all know tizzard has made a mess of him this season but imagine if he improves his jumping maybe just upto standard instead of shocking, he’ll have Ben covered easy.. factor in that most of the top 12 in the betting are far from certain, the wind op may help, better ground might help.. he’ll go off single figures easily.. the only reason the 16/1 is available is because there are to many if’s.. but most of us don’t on here are punters.. so although he’s not Banker material.. I’ll be taking a punt..

[Folski]

Anyone worried about the jockey on Finian's? Cooper has one winner in the last 6 weeks and 4 winners in the last 3 months

[Scooby91]

Anyone worried about the jockey on Finian's? Cooper has one winner in the last 6 weeks and 4 winners in the last 3 months

He's been injured. And will be cooper.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

It’s a shame Tizzard has ruined this horse this season; this race always looked ideal and they should have targeted it accordingly rather than messing about with various trips etc
The JLT has become the best Gold Cup trial but it looks a very very weak renewal this year and won’t take much winning

[Scooby91]

It’s a shame Tizzard has ruined this horse this season; this race always looked ideal and they should have targeted it accordingly rather than messing about with various trips etc
The JLT has become the best Gold Cup trial but it looks a very very weak renewal this year and won’t take much winning

Some cracking value to be had ew nrnb bog imo especially with the flogas coming up. I'm on the fav at 16s but can't have him being fav at all. He's living off the memory of the neptune.


Sutton place 12/1 1/4
Monalee 10/1 1/4
The story teller 16/1 1/4

[Folski]

He's been injured. And will be cooper.

He was out for 2.5 weeks. Not like he's missed a couple of months. Cooper is currently 5 of 51 in the UK (10%). Compare this to Davy who is 7 of 35 (20%) or Robbie Power who is 9 of 39 (23%).

[Scooby91]

He was out for 2.5 weeks. Not like he's missed a couple of months. Cooper is currently 5 of 51 in the UK (10%). Compare this to Davy who is 7 of 35 (20%) or Robbie Power who is 9 of 39 (23%).

In my own opinion. It's more what your riding. If the horse is good enough coopers good enough. You can get jockeys that you'd fancy to have an edge in a tight finish like Johnson. Or timing and setting fractions like ruby on champagne fever in the supreme but you still have to have the opportunity to ride the horse underneath you that's good enough to win.