JLT Novices 2018

[BigChaang]

I own a small share in Divine Spear. The Close brothers has been the target all along - unless he really hacks up in his next run and blows his mark!

Thank's qzy , Obviously , I'll be cheering him on and hoping he gets in the J.L.T , But appreciate the information about target .

[KingSprinterSacre]

Haha, the BHA and Betfair police will be watching....

I know but it only takes one bad egg/lurker to pass it on. I certainly wouldn't take the risk if I was an owner. I'd tell you's when hes going to win though lol

[archie]

Anyone thinking that Kemboy runs too free to be effective at this trip might be interested to know that he's got an entry for the Irish National.

[Istabraq]

I'm still no closer solving this race, was hoping Saint Calvados defected here as I can't see the extra half mile being an issue (he was tried over 20f in France) but connections seem wedded to the Arkle...

[Innoko]

I'm still no closer solving this race, was hoping Saint Calvados defected here as I can't see the extra half mile being an issue (he was tried over 20f in France) but connections seem wedded to the Arkle...

For me... Whatever Ruby is on will probably win!

Trying to solve that puzzle is also quite difficult though...

[Can't Catch Me]

Looking like Invitation Only will run here. Think he will take a lot of beating.

[Robbante]

This is entirely my pocket talking, but I think Invitation Only should go RSA and Al Boum JLT. Al boum started off this season winning over 2m 1, whereas Invitation Only started over 2m4. Invitation Only also has a decent point win over 3m to his name, and to my eye Al Boum Photo isn't a stayer that will get 3m up the Cheltenham hill

[Can't Catch Me]

This is entirely my pocket talking, but I think Invitation Only should go RSA and Al Boum JLT. Al boum started off this season winning over 2m 1, whereas Invitation Only started over 2m4. Invitation Only also has a decent point win over 3m to his name, and to my eye Al Boum Photo isn't a stayer that will get 3m up the Cheltenham hill

Would be much better for my book if this happened too Rob, but based on their Flogas run, it did look like ABP was staying on the best of the two.

[jono]

Looking like Invitation Only will run here. Think he will take a lot of beating.

Has anything come out in the last day or two suggesting this CCM? Or from the exchanges?

Funnily enough it's probably the last non handicap bet that i'm looking at adding, otherwise i'm done until the handicaps entries come out next week.

I currently have the following backed in the race:

Willoughby Court 16/1 EW
Finian's Oscar 10/1 (free bet)
Death Duty 16/1 (gone)
Al Boum Photo 16/1
*Monalee 8/1 any race*

The market is still taken up by a large amount of soon to be non runners. Having thought AbP would be the Mullins runner here earlier on in the season (and IO going RSA), that looks like it may change and swap. The Flogas run imo* would lead to that way plus Mullin's quotes after the race suggested such with him staying Invitation Only "might have possibly been outstayed a touch" and AbP "stayed on and he'll have no problem going up in trip"

Obviously that can't be taken as gospel and I imagine those 2 horses will have their target up in the air until the weekend before but if that's the case, the 10/1 on Invitation Only will be a good bet when A. the market forms without the likes of Footpad, Al Boum Photo, Terrefort, Monalee, Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Shattered Love and then B. when Ruby is the likely jockey you'll be looking at around 7/2 - 4/1 on the day? Less so if Monalee were to win the RSA the day before.

Anyone else have thoughts on where IO will go?

*interesting to hear Rob your thoughts on the pair. Before the Flogas I would have agreed but that run suggested otherwise?

[Scooby91]

Has anything come out in the last day or two suggesting this CCM? Or from the exchanges?

Funnily enough it's probably the last non handicap bet that i'm looking at adding, otherwise i'm done until the handicaps entries come out next week.

I currently have the following backed in the race:

Willoughby Court 16/1 EW
Finian's Oscar 10/1 (free bet)
Death Duty 16/1 (gone)
Al Boum Photo 16/1
*Monalee 8/1 any race*

The market is still taken up by a large amount of soon to be non runners. Having thought AbP would be the Mullins runner here earlier on in the season (and IO going RSA), that looks like it may change and swap. The Flogas run imo* would lead to that way plus Mullin's quotes after the race suggested such with him staying Invitation Only "might have possibly been outstayed a touch" and AbP "stayed on and he'll have no problem going up in trip"

Obviously that can't be taken as gospel and I imagine those 2 horses will have their target up in the air until the weekend before but if that's the case, the 10/1 on Invitation Only will be a good bet when A. the market forms without the likes of Footpad, Al Boum Photo, Terrefort, Monalee, Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir, Shattered Love and then B. when Ruby is the likely jockey you'll be looking at around 7/2 - 4/1 on the day? Less so if Monalee were to win the RSA the day before.

Anyone else have thoughts on where IO will go?

*interesting to hear Rob your thoughts on the pair. Before the Flogas I would have agreed but that run suggested otherwise?

Most likely jlt you'd probably be looking at making all on invitation only, he travells well on the bridle and gets in a nice jumping rythym that can get the others behind at it and force a mistake out of them, there won't be any time to take a breather. The 4th last is always the fence I look out for, it seems to be a real test at the business end.
If they switched with alboum photo he'd be dropped in for a chance of gear

[Folski]

Most likely jlt you'd probably be looking at making all on invitation only, he travells well on the bridle and gets in a nice jumping rythym that can get the others behind at it and force a mistake out of them, there won't be any time to take a breather. The 4th last is always the fence I look out for, it seems to be a real test at the business end.
If they switched with alboum photo he'd be dropped in for a chance of gear

You'd imagine this is what WC will be doing.

[Can't Catch Me]

Just my reading of the markets tbh jono... based purely on opinion and not seen any concrete news.

Do you not think WC will make all though scooby? The two of them could cut each others throats. Id be happy for IO to sit behind him and get a nice lead all the way around myself.

Gutted to have a 33/1 bet on IO for the RSA I cant cash out and only 12/1 JLT. One of the more annoying ones for me.

[ComplyOrDie]

This is entirely my pocket talking, but I think Invitation Only should go RSA and Al Boum JLT. Al boum started off this season winning over 2m 1, whereas Invitation Only started over 2m4. Invitation Only also has a decent point win over 3m to his name, and to my eye Al Boum Photo isn't a stayer that will get 3m up the Cheltenham hill

Having just re-watched some of the races they have both competed in so far this season I can definitely see this happening tbh!

Obviously, as has been said, what we watched in the Flogas would suggest otherwise, but I just think IO would be best going off in front in the RSA and staying on strongly like he does at the end of his races where he has been able to lead, I do think he'd be outpaced in the JLT, unlike ABP whose turn of foot is better than IO's.

I know it's over a different discipline, but the 2 met over hurdles, both off the back of a break and over 2m 4f and IO just couldn't go with them that day, and typically 'kept on one pace' where as ABP won that race pretty cosily.

Given that they have now met twice, once over hurdles and once over fences and both times ABP has finished ahead of IO, maybe in reality ABP is the better horse OR maybe it's that IO hasn't been given his optimum distance...YET! I notice ABP has one run over 3m, at Punchestown last season and was soundly beaten, yet IO, being from the PTP sphere, as had already been pointed out, has yet to go over 3m, make of it what you will but I can see IO going RSA and ABP coming here!

[Scooby91]

You'd imagine this is what WC will be doing.

He can try. But I'd see IO taking it up from him before 4 out. I don't think WC jumps a fence well enough at pace

[Scooby91]

Just my reading of the markets tbh jono... based purely on opinion and not seen any concrete news.

Do you not think WC will make all though scooby? The two of them could cut each others throats. Id be happy for IO to sit behind him and get a nice lead all the way around myself.

Gutted to have a 33/1 bet on IO for the RSA I cant cash out and only 12/1 JLT. One of the more annoying ones for me.

Invitation only dosent have to lead from flag fall but if someone else wants to go on, I think he'd take it up a fair way out. Use his jumping at pace