JLT Novices 2018

[jono]

I don't think this will shorten LOADS but I do think 16/1 is too big about a previous season festival winner... his battling quality is a big positive and as a front runner, picking 3 to get past him is not a straight forward task at the moment?

I'm also on at 16/1 EW. Neon Wolf obviously made that mistake at the last but I don't think there were any excuses to be made. NW was in the perfect position and travelled through the race exactly as you would have wanted. He did make the mistake at the last which did lose momentum but I think even without that he would have struggled to get past the winner. He got back alongside but right at the end WC was pulling slightly away and never let him past.

I had missed it before/on the day but looking back at quotes before the Neptune Pauling was actually really pleased with him coming into the race and that he had "a right chance" so it probably wasn't as big a shock as first seemed.

Good ground was a concern leading up to the race but that is no longer a worry.

16/1 for the Neptune winner who should be and has the physique to be a better chaser is definitely too big. Festival and course form is often backed up year on year. Last year the following previous winners at the 2016 festival lined up and finished in the following positions:

Ballyandy - 4th
Altior - 1st
Un Temps Por Tout - 1st
Vroum Vroum Mag - 2nd
Douvan - 7th
Cause of Causes - 1st
Yorkhill - 1st
UNWIMH - 3rd
Diamond King - PU
Mall Dini - 5th
On the Fringe - 4th
Solar Impulse - 16th

If you were to take out the handicaps then that would have given you form figures of 41271134

I'm actually more excited to see Willoughby Court over fences than I am over Yanworth and Pete Mouchoir, just 2 of the horses ahead of him in the betting and I think he will prove a better chaser than both of those.

[The Beast]

Watched Finians Oscar race few times over the weekend , my view was he was ok at his fences , nothing spectacular just a decent start for a good novice.
The enemy though seem intent on shortening horses for any reason what so ever , and while we know Finians is very good at hurdling he spent far to much time warming up in the first mile , jumping high and deliberate for me to be backing him.
That said if i was pushed to name his Cheltenham target it would be this The JLT.

[Kevloaf]

Regarding Finian's Oscar, I think he's better suited to the JLT, but he won't run in it. Potts will want the Arkle IMHO!



I absolutely LOVED Neon Wolf, I think that was about as confident as I could have been about a horse ante-post going in to a novice race, including before Finian's Oscar got injured. If you wanted to be uber-critical, you could say NW would have won without the mistake at the last, but it wouldn't have been by more than 1/2L IMO, and I had Neon Wolf as more than 1/2 better than anything else in the field, including FO.

I have 2 pts E/W on WC as I said, but I am going to have a couple of speculative multiples with him in... I do like Yanworth but can skip over fairly quickly. I am a little worried about FO but don't think he'll run and the only others less than 20s I don't think will run either (DD, Footpad, Bacardys)

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought I'd mentioned Willoughby Court in this thread already, but must have been in the ante post thread.



Only 1 firm are left 16/1 and I have put another 1 pt each way on to double up.

Purely on the fact he is a previous festival winner over the distance, with the target being named is enough for me to take a bit of a nibble before we see him in action. I am certainly not an expert on jumping techniques but he looks good in the twitter clips that Ben Pauling has tweeted

I do think it looks like being a strong race on paper and likely that we'll have a short priced fav in here as connections with 'sexier' colours/profiles will be nearer the top of the market... AND you can knock a bit of the earlier form behind MDObeaux/Keeper Hill perhaps, but when it mattered the most, he got the job done.

I don't think this will shorten LOADS but I do think 16/1 is too big about a previous season festival winner... his battling quality is a big positive and as a front runner, picking 3 to get past him is not a straight forward task at the moment?

Maybe it's the fact he doesn't come from one of the more 'fancied' or 'fashionable' yards, though Ben Pauling has done nothing wrong, and his reputation is growing massively, but I struggle to get excited by Willoughby Court, but then again the Neptune didn't exactly have me too excited this year either!

[JackieMoon33]

Maybe it's the fact he doesn't come from one of the more 'fancied' or 'fashionable' yards, though Ben Pauling has done nothing wrong, and his reputation is growing massively, but I struggle to get excited by Willoughby Court, but then again the Neptune didn't exactly have me too excited this year either!

On one hand I agree he is possibly overpriced being from a smaller, less fashionable yard. On the other hand though I have two doubts in my head: first is that I'm not sure how deep the Neptune field was last year, yes he beat Neon Wolf but he was only having his third start over hurdles and fifth career start versus Willoughby Courts fifth hurdle and ninth career start. Second is that I have a feeling the JLT could be the most competitive of the Novice chases this season and he will face much better and deeper competition including the more powerful yards.

[Kevloaf]

I didn't think the Neptune was too worrying, with Messire Des Obeaux a few lengths back and a G1 winner (Challow Hurdle? - poor Robin Roe) ... but the second point is very hard to disagree with.
I have added him in to my plans but can definitely see why you'd hold off for now

[JackieMoon33]

I didn't think the Neptune was too worrying, with Messire Des Obeaux a few lengths back and a G1 winner (Challow Hurdle? - poor Robin Roe) ... but the second point is very hard to disagree with.
I have added him in to my plans but can definitely see why you'd hold off for now

In my opinion the Challow Hurdle was a grade one in name only. Messire Des Obeaux is a decent yardstick but was put in his place in the real graded races at Cheltenham and Aintree (I'm not sure that race had much depth apart from Finians Oscar either)

[Kevloaf]

In my opinion the Challow Hurdle was a grade one in name only. Messire Des Obeaux is a decent yardstick but was put in his place in the real graded races at Cheltenham and Aintree (I'm not sure that race had much depth apart from Finians Oscar either)

Yeah I can see your point. I'll have to hope BP is right and hee a better chaser! I still like the bet though

[JackieMoon33]

Yeah I can see your point. I'll have to hope BP is right and hee a better chaser! I still like the bet though

Don't get me wrong, I do like the horse and the trainer too as I love a win for the little guy and underdog. My concern about the JLT being a strong race won't go away though as he'll be facing horses that did not run in the Neptune so won't have form lines with him. But at the price, it's a good each way bet as you know he's going chasing and probably for this race too.

[Leman14]

16/1 for the Neptune winner who should be and has the physique to be a better chaser is definitely too big. Festival and course form is often backed up year on year. Last year the following previous winners at the 2016 festival lined up and finished in the following positions:

Ballyandy - 4th
Altior - 1st
Un Temps Por Tout - 1st
Vroum Vroum Mag - 2nd
Douvan - 7th
Cause of Causes - 1st
Yorkhill - 1st
UNWIMH - 3rd
Diamond King - PU
Mall Dini - 5th
On the Fringe - 4th
Solar Impulse - 16th

If you were to take out the handicaps then that would have given you form figures of 41271134

This got me thinking...
Are there any other Winners from 2017 that we/the market may have missed/underestimated?

Non-handicap winners (Best Prices available)

Labaik (Injured)
Altior @ 6/4 for Champion Chase
Buveur D'air @ 4/1 for Champion Hurdle
Apples Jade @ 3/1 for Mares Hurdle
Tiger Roll ... Grand National Bound??
Willoughby Court @ 16/1 for JLT
Might Bite @ 10/1 for Gold Cup
Special Tiara @ 25/1 for Champion Chase
Cause of Causes @ 7/1 for X-Country
Fayonagh @ 7/2
Yorkhill @ 8/1 for Gold Cup, 8/1 for Ryanair, 12/1 Champion Hurdle
Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 for Ryanair
Nichols Canyon @ 7/1 for Stayers
Let's Dance @ 11/1 for Mares Hurdle
Defi Du Seuil @ 8/1 for Champion Hurdle
Penhill @ 18/1 for Stayers, 20/1 for RSA
Sizing John @ 6/1 for Gold Cup
Pacha Du Polder @ 12/1 for Foxhunter

Many have not been missed by the market at all, but the ones in BOLD are for the most part - assured of target and I was surprised by some of the prices.

Let's Dance @ 11/1?
Is that down to uncertainty of target? Personally, I think that she is better suited by the middle distance Mares, than the shorter Mares Novice..

Nichols Canyon @ 7/1
Cracking price - Sunbets, BetBright and StanJames
Discussed a great deal in the Stayers thread, but I am yet to include in singles (have covered in some multiples)

Un De Sceaux @ 13/2
The field generally falls apart and again, a great price if he gets there fit and firing

Special Tiara @ 25/1
This interested me a great deal.
NOT a win only play, but possibly as an EW play.
Although I would be loathed to tie up twice the cash


I'm not saying the above are by any means nailed-on to follow-up, but every year, there are a fair number of horses that win at back-to-back festivals...

[Leman14]

Apologies if the above if off-topic a little - just responding to Joni's thought...
Does anyone know how to move to "Antepost" thread?

[Star Of A Gunner]

Deserves a thread of its own in my opinion Leman, would be interesting to see how it pans out in the build up to March.

[Kevloaf]

Deserves a thread of its own in my opinion Leman, would be interesting to see how it pans out in the build up to March.

Yes start a new thread and copy and paste it Leman. Plenty of discussions to be had!

[Innoko]

Taken the 16-1 for DD after todays display.

Wanted 2pts win, but got declined!

1pt e/w

Elliott:
"I've always thought the world of this horse. Last year I was of the opinion that he probably wanted three miles but I'd say I might have been wrong to be honest," said Elliott.

"He wasn't right in Cheltenham, so look we'll put a line through last year. He was always bought to be a chaser and chasing is his game. He's a horse to look forward to.

"I'd say we'll keep him between two-and-a-half to two-six. That gives us loads of options."

[Kevloaf]

Taken the 16-1 for DD after todays display.

Wanted 2pts win, but got declined!

1pt e/w

Elliott:
"I've always thought the world of this horse. Last year I was of the opinion that he probably wanted three miles but I'd say I might have been wrong to be honest," said Elliott.

"He wasn't right in Cheltenham, so look we'll put a line through last year. He was always bought to be a chaser and chasing is his game. He's a horse to look forward to.

"I'd say we'll keep him between two-and-a-half to two-six. That gives us loads of options."

16/1 stand out won't be there for long, I will have to take that too..... I do have 4 pts invested in the RSA but that dream looks over based on these two runs visually, last years form AND the above comments!