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Originally posted by Kevloaf
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Andy Holding looks forward to March and the JLT Novices chase, won by Yorkhill last year.
The introduction of the non-runner no-bet offer with some firms for the Cheltenham Festival has been widely applauded by many, but at the same time, those seeking to gain an early advantage will have to pay a hefty premium by being asked to take a much reduced price on their fancies for the four-day showpiece. Despite bookmakers suggesting they’ve been knocked over in the rush (surely they’ve only taken Mickey Mouse bets), in most cases, there isn’t too much value to be had, so unless you can spot something that might run in a certain race and there isn’t a massive discrepancy, the incentive levels to bet at this stage are quite low. Some of the better betting races at the Festival, therefore, come in the shape of some of the novice events where virtually anything with four legs in training has been given a quote.
The JLT Novices’ Chase, for instance isn’t a bad race to have a peruse over with still two months or so to go, and given that most of the top twenty horses in most bookmakers’ lists are more likely to take up other engagements, it’s worth taking a look to see whether some value can be gleaned further down the page. Footpad is virtually certain to run in the Arkle, along with North Hill Harvey, Yanworth is likely to stepped up in trip, while Finian’s Oscar is going back over hurdles. On top of that, Monalee shapes more like a RSA horse, Sutton Place will more than likely to kept on home soil and the trio of Petite Mouchoir, Sceaux Royal and Brian Power all have too much speed to be considered for a step up in distance just yet.
As you can see, other than Willoughby Court (ran well despite stable being out of form at Cheltenham last time out) and to a lesser degree Invitation Only (impressive on his last two starts but connections uncommitted to his ideal trip), many of the highly-rated and well-known young chasers with solid form are likely to miss the gig so it could be worth looking at a horse such as BAMAKO MORIVIERE (best price 22-1 non-runner no bet) who has rather flown under the radar while arguably holding some of the best form over the 2m 4f trip in Ireland.
Willie Mullins’ charge made a somewhat inauspicious start to his chasing career, but on the evidence of his last two starts in particular, he seems to have really turned the corner. Picking himself off the canvas after a fall when well clear at the Listowel Festival back in September, the Califet gelding proved too strong for the highly-talented Tombstone in a quality beginners chase at Fairyhouse next time out, and with Gordon Elliot’s defeated inmate going on to boost the form with a victory in a Grade 3 at Navan subsequently, the pieces to his puzzle were already beginning to show. However, it’s his next and latest performance which really stands out, when he lowered the colours of a stellar field at Cork in spectacular fashion. Upped in trip for the first time over fences, the seven-year-old got into a lovely jumping rhythm from the front at the Mallow venue and having looked vulnerable when his rivals closed him down rounding the home turn, he shot clear in the straight to win by 16 lengths. Since then, the runner-up, Jury Duty, has gone on to land a Grade 2 and finished runner-up to stable mate Shattered Love in Grade 1 at Leopardstown, the third, Woodland Opera, won a Grade 2 at Punchestown next time, while the fifth home, Icantsay, trounced a field of handicappers by 10 lengths at Navan next time out.
Yet to be seen out since, interestingly, he hasn’t been entered up in either the big two novice races at Leopardstown’s February fixture, but that could be seen as a positive in the sense he’s maybe being saved for a Spring campaign on better ground. It could also mean that he’s on the easy list for the time being, but either way, he remains a very interesting runner whenever he returns given his overall form and speed figures he’s already posted. Whatever his fate, he has to be worth a small each-way risk at 22-1 for the 2m 4f race with the non-runner no-bet proviso in place (only top price 25-1 with the concession), in the hope that he does turn up in March.
Bamako Moriviere
JLT Novices Chase
0.5pts E/W
25/1
The introduction of the non-runner no-bet offer with some firms for the Cheltenham Festival has been widely applauded by many, but at the same time, those seeking to gain an early advantage will have to pay a hefty premium by being asked to take a much reduced price on their fancies for the four-day showpiece. Despite bookmakers suggesting they’ve been knocked over in the rush (surely they’ve only taken Mickey Mouse bets), in most cases, there isn’t too much value to be had, so unless you can spot something that might run in a certain race and there isn’t a massive discrepancy, the incentive levels to bet at this stage are quite low. Some of the better betting races at the Festival, therefore, come in the shape of some of the novice events where virtually anything with four legs in training has been given a quote.
The JLT Novices’ Chase, for instance isn’t a bad race to have a peruse over with still two months or so to go, and given that most of the top twenty horses in most bookmakers’ lists are more likely to take up other engagements, it’s worth taking a look to see whether some value can be gleaned further down the page. Footpad is virtually certain to run in the Arkle, along with North Hill Harvey, Yanworth is likely to stepped up in trip, while Finian’s Oscar is going back over hurdles. On top of that, Monalee shapes more like a RSA horse, Sutton Place will more than likely to kept on home soil and the trio of Petite Mouchoir, Sceaux Royal and Brian Power all have too much speed to be considered for a step up in distance just yet.
As you can see, other than Willoughby Court (ran well despite stable being out of form at Cheltenham last time out) and to a lesser degree Invitation Only (impressive on his last two starts but connections uncommitted to his ideal trip), many of the highly-rated and well-known young chasers with solid form are likely to miss the gig so it could be worth looking at a horse such as BAMAKO MORIVIERE (best price 22-1 non-runner no bet) who has rather flown under the radar while arguably holding some of the best form over the 2m 4f trip in Ireland.
Willie Mullins’ charge made a somewhat inauspicious start to his chasing career, but on the evidence of his last two starts in particular, he seems to have really turned the corner. Picking himself off the canvas after a fall when well clear at the Listowel Festival back in September, the Califet gelding proved too strong for the highly-talented Tombstone in a quality beginners chase at Fairyhouse next time out, and with Gordon Elliot’s defeated inmate going on to boost the form with a victory in a Grade 3 at Navan subsequently, the pieces to his puzzle were already beginning to show. However, it’s his next and latest performance which really stands out, when he lowered the colours of a stellar field at Cork in spectacular fashion. Upped in trip for the first time over fences, the seven-year-old got into a lovely jumping rhythm from the front at the Mallow venue and having looked vulnerable when his rivals closed him down rounding the home turn, he shot clear in the straight to win by 16 lengths. Since then, the runner-up, Jury Duty, has gone on to land a Grade 2 and finished runner-up to stable mate Shattered Love in Grade 1 at Leopardstown, the third, Woodland Opera, won a Grade 2 at Punchestown next time, while the fifth home, Icantsay, trounced a field of handicappers by 10 lengths at Navan next time out.
Yet to be seen out since, interestingly, he hasn’t been entered up in either the big two novice races at Leopardstown’s February fixture, but that could be seen as a positive in the sense he’s maybe being saved for a Spring campaign on better ground. It could also mean that he’s on the easy list for the time being, but either way, he remains a very interesting runner whenever he returns given his overall form and speed figures he’s already posted. Whatever his fate, he has to be worth a small each-way risk at 22-1 for the 2m 4f race with the non-runner no-bet proviso in place (only top price 25-1 with the concession), in the hope that he does turn up in March.
Bamako Moriviere
JLT Novices Chase
0.5pts E/W
25/1
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