Stayers Hurdle 2018

[luisgarciaisgod]

Bringing up Nicholls Canyon is a moot point because he was a 10/1 shot last year while Supasundae is competing for favourtism.Not once have I said that Supasundae won't win the Stayers, just that I can't have him at such a short price.

And surely Yanworth beating Supasundae over the distance is a better bit of form then Supasundae getting beaten by another horse. Even if going the back end of last season might be strecthing it a tad.

[Kevloaf]

I think you can excuse the two 2nd places on his efforts at the distance Kev. I think his 2nd to AJ is the best form of any going into this race

Yeah I don't disagree, just was pointing out I can see why people would oppose on that basis. A 2nd to Apple's Jade might well be the best piece of Irish form going in to the race.

I liked the Yanworth angle when he was a double figure price.... now he isn't... I'd be on Supasundae to turn the form around

What I would say is that twice over 3m a horse has 'stayed on' better than him.... now AJ might be a superstar... which would make that nothing to be ashamed of... but he is fav so you can see why people want to take him on?

[SeanRock]

Yeah I don't disagree, just was pointing out I can see why people would oppose on that basis. A 2nd to Apple's Jade might well be the best piece of Irish form going in to the race.

I liked the Yanworth angle when he was a double figure price.... now he isn't... I'd be on Supasundae to turn the form around

What I would say is that twice over 3m a horse has 'stayed on' better than him.... now AJ might be a superstar... which would make that nothing to be ashamed of... but he is fav so you can see why people want to take him on?

100% agree I can see why people won’t back Supasundae ag current prices given he’s yet to do it over the distance. But he just looks a serious animal to me this season he’s filled out into his frame and I dont see the trip as a worry personally.

[Robbante]

Supasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.

We have no idea how good Apple’s Jade is over 3m. 4 lengths back to bapaume, 12 lengths back to augusta kate is not great form to my eye. I’d have Yanworth to confirm form with Supasundae based on the fact I think Yanworth has a real engine and untapped potential at that trip. Don’t think he’ll ever win by too much at the top level as he tends to not do a great deal when in front. He travels well and just think he’ll outbattle Supasundae again and at least finish ahead of that one. 3 miles around cheltenham takes a lot of getting and we haven’t seen anything from Supasundae to suggest he’s a really strong stayer

[Hurricane fly]

conceding the mares allowance.

An off the topic point but I really hate this phrase


At no point will AJ be without the mares allowance so it’s not like we can say “oh when they are on level weights the result would be reversed”.
It was something made by Chapman about Enable being better than Arrogate because when you add on the mares allowance she has a higher rating. But she earned that rating WITH the allowance so is not on any more favourable terms when they hit the course.

In theory AJ is 5-6lbs worse than Supersundae but her mares allowance is what gave her the edge



Poorly worded rant over

[SeanRock]

An off the topic point but I really hate this phrase


At no point will AJ be without the mares allowance so it’s not like we can say “oh when they are on level weights the result would be reversed”.
It was something made by Chapman about Enable being better than Arrogate because when you add on the mares allowance she has a higher rating. But she earned that rating WITH the allowance so is not on any more favourable terms when they hit the course.

In theory AJ is 5-6lbs worse than Supersundae but her mares allowance is what gave her the edge



Poorly worded rant over

Your right HF was probably stretching a little there.

Personally I think if AJ was confirmed for this race she’d be a worthy favorite. But that’s besides the point again ��

[doctorwu]

100% agree I can see why people won’t back Supasundae ag current prices given he’s yet to do it over the distance. But he just looks a serious animal to me this season he’s filled out into his frame and I dont see the trip as a worry personally.

Im with you all the way on supa.

[charlie]

I struggle to get excited by the stayers hurdle. It's ironic really as I have backed The New One (@ 12's EW) and he hasn't excited me since March 2013!

I agree with Sam and not Nigel in that 3m will suit TNO and were it not for NTD being stubborn, we could have seen this a year or two earlier. He will not lack for stamina, loves Cheltenham and is as battle hardened a festival horse as you are likely to find having run every year in the last 6 years (6th, 1st 3rd, 5th, 4th, 5th). Nigel being pessimistic about his chances doesn't put me off one bit. His sheer desperation to win the CH has been clear for all to see over the last four years and I think he goes there with a good chance. For the stats lovers, in its 45 race existence only six horses aged nine or older have won. All six were previous Festival winners.

[kinloch brae]

Great if you took a punt at big prices but I still think the 5/1 Sam Spinner is not too bad at all.

There are several pluses: he looks a thorough stayer unlike so many of these who might find three miles right on their limit; he can dictate the race in the knowledge that the potential non-stayers are not going to take him on; he has the best form this season; he will arrive fresh from a nice long break and he likely has more improvement in him.

I wouldn't be that concerned about the track. I would be a lot more concerned about the track for a horse like Getabird who ran out the only time he went left-handed. He is a fraction of Sam Spinner's price and only might have the best form going into his race. The biggest negative for me as regards Sam Spinner would be inexperience of Joe Colliver but to be fair he has done little wrong on the horse so far and clearly deserves to take the ride. He does need to do something about his whip action though because if it comes to a battle up the hill it will stand out - in a bad way.

[Robbante]

Penhill looking good in the pics coming out this morning, would still give him a good chance in this. Every chance that Bartlett form could be hot from last year, with Monalee back in 2nd. Then ran champagne classic close at punchestown when given too much to do. The way this race will be run should suit one who can travel well then pick them off late, wouldn’t be at all surprised if that horse is Penhill. Still think his price is and always has been a bit stingy given his prep (though he goes very well fresh and Mullins won’t run him if not ready)

[Kevloaf]

Faugheen (Unibet Champion Hurdle or Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle)

I’d imagine he will go Champion Hurdle. You think everything is great after the Morgiana. He ran a grand race the last day (when second in the Irish Champion Hurdle) but will have to up his game to try and win there.

Imagine!?!?!? 12s NRNB ... although Johnny Ward titled ot CH or Stayers haha

[Kevloaf]

Penhill looking good in the pics coming out this morning, would still give him a good chance in this. Every chance that Bartlett form could be hot from last year, with Monalee back in 2nd. Then ran champagne classic close at punchestown when given too much to do. The way this race will be run should suit one who can travel well then pick them off late, wouldn’t be at all surprised if that horse is Penhill. Still think his price is and always has been a bit stingy given his prep (though he goes very well fresh and Mullins won’t run him if not ready)

Doesn't sound positive at all to me on Penhill...

"The aim was to get him there - we planned on getting him to Cheltenham and it’s a tough task to win that race. If he runs well and comes out sound that will be good enough for us and we can look to Punchestown.

It is hard to get out of novice class to open class. He is going to have to do that, but then his Flat rating his high."

Sounds like Punchestown prize money is more on the agenda than another festival win IMO - but does sound like they'd run him regardless and might run if "not ready".... ot not 100%, or whatever the term is.

[ComplyOrDie]

Doesn't sound positive at all to me on Penhill...

"The aim was to get him there - we planned on getting him to Cheltenham and it’s a tough task to win that race. If he runs well and comes out sound that will be good enough for us and we can look to Punchestown.

It is hard to get out of novice class to open class. He is going to have to do that, but then his Flat rating his high."

Sounds like Punchestown prize money is more on the agenda than another festival win IMO - but does sound like they'd run him regardless and might run if "not ready".... ot not 100%, or whatever the term is.

Do you think the Irish trainers title is playing a huge part in which horses come over with a lack of a run, they will come on for that run and be big challengers at Punchestown, yet Willie will still have plenty of ammunition for the festival too?

[Kevloaf]

Do you think the Irish trainers title is playing a huge part in which horses come over with a lack of a run, they will come on for that run and be big challengers at Punchestown, yet Willie will still have plenty of ammunition for the festival too?

I wouldn't like to go that far and say a HUGE part.... but it isn't WIllie's biggest ever, or best (in terms of favs) 'squad' and I think perhaps where he may have given others a bit more of a "why not" entry/run in other years...this year may keep a few back if they aren't "sparking". Only a theory...?

[Kevloaf]

Doesn't sound positive at all to me on Penhill...

"The aim was to get him there - we planned on getting him to Cheltenham and it’s a tough task to win that race. If he runs well and comes out sound that will be good enough for us and we can look to Punchestown.

It is hard to get out of novice class to open class. He is going to have to do that, but then his Flat rating his high."

Sounds like Punchestown prize money is more on the agenda than another festival win IMO - but does sound like they'd run him regardless and might run if "not ready".... ot not 100%, or whatever the term is.

Patrick Mullins also, on the video on this page ... https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...le-tour/143563 says he would pick Bacardys over Penhill! He is available at 14s too, wheras Penhill is 10s - I've not been a fan of Penhill all season and the comments from WIllie and Patrick are nails in the coffin for me.

One of the ONLY horses I won't have running for me in the race