Stayers Hurdle 2018

[kinloch brae]

I'm a fan and have her for the race at 25/1 EW (taken straight after her Ascot win). In the Weekender a few weeks back Greatrex had this to say:



She would still interest me at 20/1 now if wasn't already on but I would definitely go EW as I feel there probably will be one better on the day. It's an open race though and I see her firmly in the mix with the 7lbs. I hope they do go for this race as like mentioned above - everything about it should suit better, I just have a nagging doubt that they may end up in the mares.

I cannot see LBAR beating Apples Jade over 2m4, nor could I see Supasundae beating AJ over that trip (would have been a wider winning margin if the pair ran at this trip imo) - I actually struggle to think of any horses that would except for Buveur D'Air (really hope for a match up in the Aintree Hurdle this year between the pair!). But I can see LBAR getting involved over 3 miles.

I think any horse is basically on a hiding to nothing running against AJ over 2m4 so if there was any chance the 7lbs could bring me into play in the stayers i'd take it. And in this case it looks the trip and race to suit LBAR the most.

Although she may well be better over the longer trip I would still run against her own sex. At least she would have some chance of placing in that race. Maybe Apple's Jade could have an off day and then it is up for grabs. Even in a relatively open year I can't have her finishing in the first six in a Stayers Hurdle. She has been well placed but there is nothing so far to suggest she is Grade 1 material.

[jono]

Although she may well be better over the longer trip I would still run against her own sex. At least she would have some chance of placing in that race. Maybe Apple's Jade could have an off day and then it is up for grabs. Even in a relatively open year I can't have her finishing in the first six in a Stayers Hurdle. She has been well placed but there is nothing so far to suggest she is Grade 1 material.

I think it's a very open race this year but not the highest standard so not sure she's far off most horses over 3 miles myself. Just some of them...

Supasundae - as impressive as he has looked and worthy fav, 3 miles at Cheltenham is a slight doubt
Sam Spinner - won the key trials but course an unknown. Likely stronger field expected (Irish & Yanworth) than he has beat in the trials
Yanworth - beat Supasundae over 3 miles but the prep is far from ideal having been chasing all season.
L'ami Serge - will likely travel all over the field but questionable attitude
Penhill - first run back - some task even if Mullins has form for doing so with horses
Bacardys - chasing shelved for the year and missed his last 2 intended hurdle runs
UNWIMH - doesn't look the same horse this year.
The New One - unknown if he will stay 3 miles

Still have to prove their form over 3 miles or have had far from ideal preps - neither are a concern for LBAR.

I don't for any minute think she's bullet proof or anything like that. You can pick holes in her form and she disappointed at Cheltenham last year and Aintree but think she's well worth her place if she lined up.

[Quevega]

She should be a bigger price than 25-1 best.
Looks one of the worst priced up races at the festival at the moment, can see some or all being bigger on the morning of the race.
if they all make it to the race she ought to be 33s on the day.

[SeanRock]

On form Yanworth is a huge threat, and as punters we have to place form as the biggest factor most of the time. If it was about yard confidence then Brain Power and Charli Parcs would be unbeaten superstars

Supasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.

[luisgarciaisgod]

Supasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.

As good as Supasundae has looked the main basis of his following for this recently has come on the back of his victory over 2m on a much flatter track then Cheltenham. Jessie has done wonders with him since getting him from HDB but the reality is that he's been outstayed both times he's attempted 3m. I personally think he's a little bit short in the market.

That said although I'm on Yanworth at bigger prices then now, I'd probably avoid at the current price

[SeanRock]

As good as Supasundae has looked the main basis of his following for this recently has come on the back of his victory over 2m on a much flatter track then Cheltenham. Jessie has done wonders with him since getting him from HDB but the reality is that he's been outstayed both times he's attempted 3m. I personally think he's a little bit short in the market.

That said although I'm on Yanworth at bigger prices then now, I'd probably avoid at the current price

He's won at the festival over 2m 5 last year and his run in pushing AJ all the way to the line in the 3m race at Christmas conceding the mares allowance and on ground he doesn't like. I think he'll get the trip no problem. A lot like Nichols Canyon did last year.

[Kevloaf]

I think La Bague Au Roi will run here and glad to see Greatrex has said what looks blindly obviously, that she improved for 3 miles.

He won the race with Cole Harden which I'd take a small positive too.

I haven't got her backed because:

I am inclinded to wait to see if she does get any bigger OR if there are enhanced placed terms on the day though...as this looks like being a big field. I'd sooner take 16s on the day 4 places 1/4 the odds than 20/1 1/5 the odds now for 3 places....

If she gets too short, I am not bothered as I don't think she'll win... but wouldn't mind her running for a place./... if the price is right...value is everything!

[SeanRock]

I think La Bague Au Roi will run here and glad to see Greatrex has said what looks blindly obviously, that she improved for 3 miles.

He won the race with Cole Harden which I'd take a small positive too.

I haven't got her backed because:

I am inclinded to wait to see if she does get any bigger OR if there are enhanced placed terms on the day though...as this looks like being a big field. I'd sooner take 16s on the day 4 places 1/4 the odds than 20/1 1/5 the odds now for 3 places....

If she gets too short, I am not bothered as I don't think she'll win... but wouldn't mind her running for a place./... if the price is right...value is everything!

Who do you fancy to win Kev if you had to pick one now?

[Kevloaf]

Who do you fancy to win Kev if you had to pick one now?

If I hadn't backed anything... and was going in fresh, right now...

I'd probably be looking at The Worlds End hoping for the good ground bringing out the improvement at a biggish price. A good case has been made on here and I think it stacks up.

I would be interested in Yanworth and Supasundae and would tend to lean on the side of the arguement that Supasundae has improved this year so would reserve the aintree run.

I'd be opposing Sam Spinner based on him not going to Cheltenham. Not that he can't win...just too short to prove me wrong.

[SeanRock]

If I hadn't backed anything... and was going in fresh, right now...

I'd probably be looking at The Worlds End hoping for the good ground bringing out the improvement at a biggish price. A good case has been made on here and I think it stacks up.

I would be interested in Yanworth and Supasundae and would tend to lean on the side of the arguement that Supasundae has improved this year so would reserve the aintree run.

I'd be opposing Sam Spinner based on him not going to Cheltenham. Not that he can't win...just too short to prove me wrong.

We don’t really know how Sam Spinner will handle the track and the possible better ground he’s a treat on that basis but I can see him being vulnerable to a late challenge from a Supasundae type horse with a good turn of foot

[luisgarciaisgod]

He's won at the festival over 2m 5 last year and his run in pushing AJ all the way to the line in the 3m race at Christmas conceding the mares allowance and on ground he doesn't like. I think he'll get the trip no problem. A lot like Nichols Canyon did last year.

He's won more times on soft ground then good so it's not as if he "hated" the ground, 2 wins from 7 on good in the description isn't amazing either. He's faced Yanworth twice, beating him on soft (albeit over 2m in 2014) then losing to him on GS....

Anyway I'm not saying Supasundae won't win this either. The 2nd to Apples Jade was very impressive but looking at the market you've got Yanworth, Sam Spinner, Bacardys (albeit in a p2p) and even L'ami Serge who've won over the distance before and Supasundae is 0/2. Maybe I'm a stickler but i just can't go for a horse without a victory over the distance for a championship race at Cheltenham

[SeanRock]

He's won more times on soft ground then good so it's not as if he "hated" the ground, 2 wins from 7 on good in the description isn't amazing either. He's faced Yanworth twice, beating him on soft (albeit over 2m in 2014) then losing to him on GS....

Anyway I'm not saying Supasundae won't win this either. The 2nd to Apples Jade was very impressive but looking at the market you've got Yanworth, Sam Spinner, Bacardys (albeit in a p2p) and even L'ami Serge who've won over the distance before and Supasundae is 0/2. Maybe I'm a stickler but i just can't go for a horse without a victory over the distance for a championship race at Cheltenham

I’ll trust JH knows what ground suits her horse.

“He definitely goes for the Stayers’. We’re better off going for the three-miler, I know he stays three miles and I’m very happy to go there, especially as the ground will be drier in Cheltenham and it will suit him even better.”

And did Nichols Canyon not win last year on his first run at 3m?

[Kevloaf]

I’ll trust JH knows what ground suits her horse.

“He definitely goes for the Stayers’. We’re better off going for the three-miler, I know he stays three miles and I’m very happy to go there, especially as the ground will be drier in Cheltenham and it will suit him even better.”

And did Nichols Canyon not win last year on his first run at 3m?

I think the point is NC won at his first try, so was 0/0.... whereas Supasundae has been beaten twice at 3m.... and is 0/2

I can see why people are opposing Supasundae too.


One of the reasons I'm happy to have a book for this race

[SeanRock]

I think you can excuse the two 2nd places on his efforts at the distance Kev. I think his 2nd to AJ is the best form of any going into this race

[SeanRock]

re: the Yanworth form

Supasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.