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Stayers Hurdle 2018
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Originally posted by kinloch brae View PostAlthough she may well be better over the longer trip I would still run against her own sex. At least she would have some chance of placing in that race. Maybe Apple's Jade could have an off day and then it is up for grabs. Even in a relatively open year I can't have her finishing in the first six in a Stayers Hurdle. She has been well placed but there is nothing so far to suggest she is Grade 1 material.
Supasundae - as impressive as he has looked and worthy fav, 3 miles at Cheltenham is a slight doubt
Sam Spinner - won the key trials but course an unknown. Likely stronger field expected (Irish & Yanworth) than he has beat in the trials
Yanworth - beat Supasundae over 3 miles but the prep is far from ideal having been chasing all season.
L'ami Serge - will likely travel all over the field but questionable attitude
Penhill - first run back - some task even if Mullins has form for doing so with horses
Bacardys - chasing shelved for the year and missed his last 2 intended hurdle runs
UNWIMH - doesn't look the same horse this year.
The New One - unknown if he will stay 3 miles
Still have to prove their form over 3 miles or have had far from ideal preps - neither are a concern for LBAR.
I don't for any minute think she's bullet proof or anything like that. You can pick holes in her form and she disappointed at Cheltenham last year and Aintree but think she's well worth her place if she lined up.
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Originally posted by Robbante View PostOn form Yanworth is a huge threat, and as punters we have to place form as the biggest factor most of the time. If it was about yard confidence then Brain Power and Charli Parcs would be unbeaten superstars
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Originally posted by SeanRock View PostSupasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.
That said although I'm on Yanworth at bigger prices then now, I'd probably avoid at the current price
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Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View PostAs good as Supasundae has looked the main basis of his following for this recently has come on the back of his victory over 2m on a much flatter track then Cheltenham. Jessie has done wonders with him since getting him from HDB but the reality is that he's been outstayed both times he's attempted 3m. I personally think he's a little bit short in the market.
That said although I'm on Yanworth at bigger prices then now, I'd probably avoid at the current price
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I think La Bague Au Roi will run here and glad to see Greatrex has said what looks blindly obviously, that she improved for 3 miles.
He won the race with Cole Harden which I'd take a small positive too.
I haven't got her backed because:
I am inclinded to wait to see if she does get any bigger OR if there are enhanced placed terms on the day though...as this looks like being a big field. I'd sooner take 16s on the day 4 places 1/4 the odds than 20/1 1/5 the odds now for 3 places....
If she gets too short, I am not bothered as I don't think she'll win... but wouldn't mind her running for a place./... if the price is right...value is everything!
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI think La Bague Au Roi will run here and glad to see Greatrex has said what looks blindly obviously, that she improved for 3 miles.
He won the race with Cole Harden which I'd take a small positive too.
I haven't got her backed because:
I am inclinded to wait to see if she does get any bigger OR if there are enhanced placed terms on the day though...as this looks like being a big field. I'd sooner take 16s on the day 4 places 1/4 the odds than 20/1 1/5 the odds now for 3 places....
If she gets too short, I am not bothered as I don't think she'll win... but wouldn't mind her running for a place./... if the price is right...value is everything!
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Originally posted by SeanRock View PostWho do you fancy to win Kev if you had to pick one now?
I'd probably be looking at The Worlds End hoping for the good ground bringing out the improvement at a biggish price. A good case has been made on here and I think it stacks up.
I would be interested in Yanworth and Supasundae and would tend to lean on the side of the arguement that Supasundae has improved this year so would reserve the aintree run.
I'd be opposing Sam Spinner based on him not going to Cheltenham. Not that he can't win...just too short to prove me wrong.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostIf I hadn't backed anything... and was going in fresh, right now...
I'd probably be looking at The Worlds End hoping for the good ground bringing out the improvement at a biggish price. A good case has been made on here and I think it stacks up.
I would be interested in Yanworth and Supasundae and would tend to lean on the side of the arguement that Supasundae has improved this year so would reserve the aintree run.
I'd be opposing Sam Spinner based on him not going to Cheltenham. Not that he can't win...just too short to prove me wrong.
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Originally posted by SeanRock View PostHe's won at the festival over 2m 5 last year and his run in pushing AJ all the way to the line in the 3m race at Christmas conceding the mares allowance and on ground he doesn't like. I think he'll get the trip no problem. A lot like Nichols Canyon did last year.
Anyway I'm not saying Supasundae won't win this either. The 2nd to Apples Jade was very impressive but looking at the market you've got Yanworth, Sam Spinner, Bacardys (albeit in a p2p) and even L'ami Serge who've won over the distance before and Supasundae is 0/2. Maybe I'm a stickler but i just can't go for a horse without a victory over the distance for a championship race at Cheltenham
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Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View PostHe's won more times on soft ground then good so it's not as if he "hated" the ground, 2 wins from 7 on good in the description isn't amazing either. He's faced Yanworth twice, beating him on soft (albeit over 2m in 2014) then losing to him on GS....
Anyway I'm not saying Supasundae won't win this either. The 2nd to Apples Jade was very impressive but looking at the market you've got Yanworth, Sam Spinner, Bacardys (albeit in a p2p) and even L'ami Serge who've won over the distance before and Supasundae is 0/2. Maybe I'm a stickler but i just can't go for a horse without a victory over the distance for a championship race at Cheltenham
“He definitely goes for the Stayers’. We’re better off going for the three-miler, I know he stays three miles and I’m very happy to go there, especially as the ground will be drier in Cheltenham and it will suit him even better.”
And did Nichols Canyon not win last year on his first run at 3m?Last edited by SeanRock; 25 February 2018, 09:38 PM.
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Originally posted by SeanRock View PostI’ll trust JH knows what ground suits her horse.
“He definitely goes for the Stayers’. We’re better off going for the three-miler, I know he stays three miles and I’m very happy to go there, especially as the ground will be drier in Cheltenham and it will suit him even better.”
And did Nichols Canyon not win last year on his first run at 3m?
I can see why people are opposing Supasundae too.
One of the reasons I'm happy to have a book for this race
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re: the Yanworth form
Originally posted by SeanRock View PostSupasundae had a hard race in winning the Coral last year while Yanworth was basically pulled up half way round the Champion Hurdle. How many horses peak at Cheltenham then go on to perform at the same level at Aintree 4 weeks later? Not many id imagine. Id be considering this if the Aintree race has you convinced Rob. Im happy to have Supasundae on board. He's a different animal than he was 12 months ago. A lot stronger.
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