Stayers Hurdle 2018

[cpfcpatriot]

Liked the run of The World’s End today. I’m convinced, and 20/1 NRNB is still too big to me.

[kinloch brae]

I am on The Worlds End and Thomas Campbell. Even allowing for the ground I expected a little better. The Worlds End could do with jumping better and finishing his races off a good deal better. To be competitive in March it seems the ground will need to make a big difference and he is probably going to have to do nearly all his running on the bridle which might be very difficult because we know at least Sam Spinner is going to make this a severe test. Thomas Campbell didn't travel at all and probably needs a break.

Agrapart hugely frustrating for anyone who backed him in a lesser race last time.

[ComplyOrDie]

I've sat here tonight looking over this market, and keep coming back to Supasundae. Sure, Sam Spinner hasn't done much wrong this season, but Cheltenham is a unique course and Supasundae has that course form in the bag, and has improved for his seasonal debut to get within 3/4 of a length of Apples Jade LTO. Improvement on that will see him go close and I suspect he will have been campaigned to be at his fittest for this race. A few on here also had stats about horses returning to the festival after winning the previous year, which I believe was quite profitable, so this must be positive.

I can't have Penhill or Bacardys turning up to this without a spin out over hurdles this season.

L'ami Serge continues to be hard to win with, plus needs to find something with Sam Spinner. The only other one I come back to is original long time favourite UNWIMH, who could well have had his season shaped around this race rather than his early season races, unlike last season where he won everything in sight until the festival.

[kinloch brae]

I think in a ideal world they would have wanted to go the same route with Unowhatimeanharry but because he is a year older they have had to nurse him a little more. He has appeared to be beaten fair and square and although the longer break might help I think it is unlikely he will find any improvement. I fear last year was his chance.

Is Supasundae a thorough stayer? It wasn't a true test of stamina last time and he still appeared to be outstayed by Apple's Jade.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think in a ideal world they would have wanted to go the same route with Unowhatimeanharry but because he is a year older they have had to nurse him a little more. He has appeared to be beaten fair and square and although the longer break might help I think it is unlikely he will find any improvement. I fear last year was his chance.

Is Supasundae a thorough stayer? It wasn't a true test of stamina last time and he still appeared to be outstayed by Apple's Jade.

You may be right about UNWIMH, but for me 3m on soft for Supasundae was enough a test of stamina as I'd want to see, OK, so the race may have not been run to a true test, but 3m is 3m however you play it up or down, and it could have been much a negative as a positive that the race was run like that for the horse, time will tell, but on better ground, which is more likely at Cheltenham it will not be a problem. He looked like a stayer at the last festival, as he done his best work at the finish of a 2m 5f race.

[Kevloaf]

Been away all weekend so just catching up.... what was said from connections about Finian's Oscar? Travelled really well and then nothing, but can't be lacking for fitness?

If he doesn't want 3m yet, and has proven he can't do 2m.... will he skip Cheltenham and go for Aintree Hurdle?

[Folski]

Been away all weekend so just catching up.... what was said from connections about Finian's Oscar? Travelled really well and then nothing, but can't be lacking for fitness?

If he doesn't want 3m yet, and has proven he can't do 2m.... will he skip Cheltenham and go for Aintree Hurdle?

Cooper was interviewed by ITV4 after the racing said horse travelled well went out like a light, didn't like ground, finished distressed.

[Hurricane fly]

Kev I’d fully agree, should be kept for the Aintree hurdle

[jono]

The absolute obvious and logical thing to do with Finian's Oscar is for them at the very least skip the festival. I would go as far to say they should draw stumps on the season as a whole and go back to the drawing board completely and try and start again next year. He'll have obviously lost his novice status but he won't be winning anything at the Cheltenham festival at least and if they really do believe he has the talent and potential to win a Gold Cup some day they surely have to be looking away from the short term and think about trying to recover what is left in the hope all comes good in a few years time. He's only 6 years old and has been fast tracked to a degree to be in this position so they have time on their side.

The obvious thing to do is probably the opposite of what connections are thinking though based ont he evidence this season!

It's funny that I actually quite liked connections especially once Joe Tizzard became assistant trainer. It seemed like the operation, at the same time the likes of Thistlecrack and Native River were coming through were much more professional over the kind of Tizzard 'charm and naivety'. Due to the success of such horses along with of course Cue Card I like connections but my word how things have changed!
I think the quotes before the Cleeve on Friday were an all time low:

He is still a good horse and in really good form. He has always made a little noise so we have put a tongue-tie on and will see if we will be going for the Stayers' Hurdle

Making a noise so they decided to run him over 3 miles for the first time on heavy ground...

It's got to the point where horses I had liked for the festival - notably Elegant Escape and also to a lesser degree Robinsfirth are starting to make me doubt their chances over what has gone on this season.

[opatcho]

Been a spectator on this site for a few months, so thought I'd register and chip in

I haven't been that impressed by the British Stayers this year, with the likes of Beer Goggles and Sam Spinner beating off most on offer from last year.

Instead I'm looking over to the Irish to produce the winner, and have taken 7/1 for Supasundae to win this. It's taken me a while to come round to this decision, but base it on the following

- Cheltenham Festival form. Won the Coral Cup last year after stepping up in trip. Prior to this, he ran in one of the best supremes for a long time (Altior / Min / Buveur D'Air era) and also ran in a decent bumper (Moon Racers).
- Spring horse. Going off his performances and also from comments from the trainers and jockey, he acts best on good ground
- 3 miles. Has twice this trip twice, at Graded 1 level, finishing second to Yanworth and Apples Jade but whom appear to be set for other assignments at the festival. This level of form trumps Beer Goggles and Sam Spinner form lines
- Lightly raced this season. I'm expecting him to be withdrawn from the strange Grade 1 entry in the Irish Champion Hurdle... unless they want to get another run into him (??). Personally, I'd like to see him kept away from the track until the festival whilst others continue to slog it out on testing ground

I had a antepost bet on Bacardys. It's a shame they campaigned him over fences, not sure whether he'll be able to return to form if they end up in the stayers.

Strange that out of all of the championship races, it's this one I'm most comfortable with and happy to sit on my primary selection whilst, hopefully, others start pulling out of the race

:-)

[opatcho]

Is Supasundae a thorough stayer? It wasn't a true test of stamina last time and he still appeared to be outstayed by Apple's Jade.

I think you've answered your our question there

If the race wasn't ran at a true pace, then it will ultimately become a sprint at the end. As a result, I would say that Supasundae was 'out paced' by Apple's Jade

Even if you feel strongly that Supasundae was outstayed by Apple's Jade, Apple's Jade is a talented horse... much better than any of the stayers over here in the UK at the moment. If Apple's Jade continue down the mares route, then I'm struggling to see how beats Supasundae

[Middle_Of_March]

The absolute obvious and logical thing to do with Finian's Oscar is for them at the very least skip the festival. I would go as far to say they should draw stumps on the season as a whole and go back to the drawing board completely and try and start again next year. He'll have obviously lost his novice status but he won't be winning anything at the Cheltenham festival at least and if they really do believe he has the talent and potential to win a Gold Cup some day they surely have to be looking away from the short term and think about trying to recover what is left in the hope all comes good in a few years time. He's only 6 years old and has been fast tracked to a degree to be in this position so they have time on their side.

The obvious thing to do is probably the opposite of what connections are thinking though based ont he evidence this season!

It's funny that I actually quite liked connections especially once Joe Tizzard became assistant trainer. It seemed like the operation, at the same time the likes of Thistlecrack and Native River were coming through were much more professional over the kind of Tizzard 'charm and naivety'. Due to the success of such horses along with of course Cue Card I like connections but my word how things have changed!
I think the quotes before the Cleeve on Friday were an all time low:



Making a noise so they decided to run him over 3 miles for the first time on heavy ground...

It's got to the point where horses I had liked for the festival - notably Elegant Escape and also to a lesser degree Robinsfirth are starting to make me doubt their chances over what has gone on this season.

I too like Elegant Escape (but only for the four miler) but Tizzards awful season for luck and his decision making has put me off EE slightly.

Whilst I haven’t backed the horse myself, anyone on Naive River each way antepost must be sweating now surely. Still no run. Little news on him and everything Tizzard is running is struggling. I’d be worried.

[opatcho]

I too like Elegant Escape (but only for the four miler) but Tizzards awful season for luck and his decision making has put me off EE slightly.

Whilst I haven’t backed the horse myself, anyone on Naive River each way antepost must be sweating now surely. Still no run. Little news on him and everything Tizzard is running is struggling. I’d be worried.

Agreed on both points...

I can see Elegant Escape landing a big price at big odds, but totally put off with Tizzards form

As for Native, wouldnt surprise me if he didnt run this season. Shocked if he turns up in the GC at all

[Kevloaf]

Right, time to cause some debate....

Are you

A) A horse racing fan, with at least average intelligence, who appreciates that a horse to win a 3 mile staying hurdle, grade 1 at Cheltenham needs to be a horse that stays well and is able to put his head down and battle for a win....

B) Living in a dream world where you think that a horse than can't beat Wakanda in a handicap wins the Stayers hurdle?

C) A mug who backed every horse so can't really be right or wrong

I'll put myself in camp C .... but I know which one I'd like to be in

[opatcho]

I want to back a horse that’s been to precious festival, ran st graded level and at least placed.
Would be nice to see that selection grind out a win
That’s all for me